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Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

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  • Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

    TO CLOSE BY NOON ON FEBRUARY 20th


    CHELTENHAM
    Wednesday, March 13th

    THE JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 1)
    (Grade 3)


    TOTAL RACE VALUE GBP 125,000
    Distributed in accordance with Stakes and Prize Money Code
    GBP 70,337 to the winning horse
    The second to receive GBP 26,500,
    the third GBP 13,262,
    the fourth GBP 6,625,
    the fifth GBP 3,325,
    the sixth GBP 1,662,
    the seventh GBP 825
    and the eighth GBP 425

    for five yrs old and upwards

    TWO MILES ABOUT HALF A FURLONG (2m 62yds)

    Enter by noon, February 20th and pay GBP 155 stake
    Confirm by noon, March 7th and pay GBP 470
    Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 11th

    Weights published on..........February 27th
    Penalties, after February 25th, 2024, a winner of a steeple chase 5lb
    (No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb)
    PLEASE NOTE: A novice horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of three times in Steeple Chases in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code





    2023. Maskada (MARE) 7-11-1 22/1 H. de Bromhead - Darragh O'Keefe RPR 155
    2022. Global Citizen 10-10-6 28/1 Ben Pauling - Kielan Woods RPR 146
    2021. Sky Pirate 8-11-6 14/1, Jonjo O'Neill - Nick Scholfield RPR 159
    2020. Chosen Mate 7-11-4 7/2F. Gordon Elliott Davy Russell RPR 158
    2019. Croco Bay. 12-10-12. 66/1 Ben Case. Kielan Woods. RPR 148
    2018. Le Prezien. 7-11-8. 15/2. Paul Nicholls. Barry Geraghty. RPR 160
    2017. Rock The World. 9-11-5. 10/1. Mrs JHarrington. Robbie Power RPR 156
    2016. Solar Impulse. 6-11-0. 28/1 Paul Nicholls. Sam T-Davies. RPR 151
    2015. Next Sensation. 8-11-2. 16/1. M. Scudamore T Scudamore. RPR 156
    2014. Savello. 8-11-5. 16/1. A J Martin. Davy Russell. RPR 157
    2013. Alderwood. 9-10-11. 3/1F. T. Mullins. A P McCoy. RPR 159




    2023 1st OR 142, 2nd OR 140, 3rd OR 139, 4th OR 149 - High 155, Low OR 139 19 ran

    2022 1st OR 136, 2nd OR 155, 3rd OR 141, 4th OR 153 - High 156, Low OR 136 16 ran
    2021 1st OR 152, 2nd OR 143, 3rd OR 154, 4th OR 140 - High 158, Low OR 136. 19 ran
    2020 1st OR 147, 2nd OR 149, 3rd OR 148, 4th OR 150 - High 155, Low OR 140. 18 ran
    -----------------maximum field reduced to 20 -----------------------------------------
    2019 1st OR 139, 2nd OR 148, 3rd OR 136, 4th OR 153 - High 153, Low OR 134. 20 ran
    2018 1st OR 150, 2nd OR 152, 3rd OR 149, 4th OR 141 - High 154, Low OR 139. 22 ran
    2017 1st OR 147, 2nd OR 142, 3rd OR 141, 4th OR 143 - High 154, Low OR 135. 24 ran
    2016 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 137, 3rd OR 146, 4th OR 150 - High 152, Low OR 137. 24 ran
    2015 1st OR 143, 2nd OR 145, 3rd OR 149, 4th OR 142 - High 153, Low OR 130. 20 ran
    2014 1st OR 147, 2nd OR 138, 3rd OR 142, 4th OR 142 - High 154, Low OR 136. 23 ran
    --------


    ….2023 trend analysis for reference;

    THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

    - None were top weight. Only one top weight made the frame.
    - Featured fourth or lower on the weights list after declarations.
    - Had not run more than 8 times in last 12 months.
    - Had won at least twice on a racecourse described as ‘galloping’ (as per Benjy23 & Istabraq, this trend might no longer apply).
    - Had run in a G1 or G2 previously.
    - Had won on a left handed track.
    - Last ran at least 39 days ago.

    9 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

    - Carried no more than 11st 6Ib (exception Le Prezien 11st 8Ib).
    - Had not won more than 3 chases (12yo Croco Bay won 4).
    - Did not win last time out, though 3 of the last 4 did finish in the first 3. 7 out of 10 did not win that season.
    - Had run at least twice that season.

    8 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

    - were not sent off Fav on the day (6 of the last 10 were 14-1 plus)
    - Had run at Cheltenham before, 4 winning, 3 in a previous GA.

    TRAINER TRENDS;

    - Last 10 years Henderson has had 16 runners with 5 placing.
    - Nicholls has done best, winning it 4 times, including twice in last 10 years.
    - Ireland have won 4 of the last 10.

    JOCKEY TRENDS;

    - None of note, Davy Russell has won twice in last 10 years.
    - Tends to go to a professional & not a claimer.

    KEY TRIALS;

    No reliable trials because trainers don’t want to show their hand to the assessor. In the last 6 years things have changed dramatically from winners having recent runs to lining up at the Festival with up to 3 months off (although Global Citizen ran in Feb). Look back at the last GA, though no horse has won it twice since Dulwich.

    Global Citizen carried just 10st 6Ib, placed last time out, two G2 wins and only 1 Chase win. He had won 2 handicap hurdles on left handed galloping tracks and run over fences and hurdles at Cheltenham, including at the Festival.​


    ---------



    38 Early Entries in the Grand Annual at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival:

    Arclight
    Calico (GER)
    Dancing On My Own (IRE)
    Demnat (FR)
    Embittered (IRE)
    Enniskerry (IRE)
    Fils d'Oudairies (FR)
    Flanking Maneuver (IRE)
    Frere d'Armes (FR)
    Frero Banbou (FR)
    Gemirande (FR)
    Gunsight Ridge
    Guy (IRE)
    Hardy du Seuil (FR)
    Harper's Brook (IRE)
    In Excelsis Deo (FR)
    Libberty Hunter
    Madara (FR)
    Malystic
    Maskada (FR)
    Master Chewy (IRE)
    Mighty Tom (IRE)
    My Mate Mozzie (IRE)
    Path d'Oroux (FR)
    Pats Choice (IRE)
    Pembroke
    Pinkerton (IRE)
    Sa Fureur (IRE)
    Saint Felicien (FR)
    Saint Roi (FR)
    Saint Segal (FR)
    Solness (FR)
    Straw Fan Jack
    The Folkes Tiara (IRE)
    The King of Prs (IRE)
    Tommy's Oscar (IRE)
    Triple Trade
    Unexpected Party (FR)​








    Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 22 February 2024, 12:02 PM.
    "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

  • #2
    33 years of duck eggs for me this race, may well back all 20 on the day just to get the monkey off my back…

    Comment


    • #3
      Does anyone have data of trainers stats at the festival like runners by year etc?

      I just want to know about Noel Meade as I'm pretty interested in Thedevilscoachman but I have a feeling that he doesn't really send many horses to Cheltenham (especially in recent years)

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Winging The Last View Post
        Does anyone have data of trainers stats at the festival like runners by year etc?

        I just want to know about Noel Meade as I'm pretty interested in Thedevilscoachman but I have a feeling that he doesn't really send many horses to Cheltenham (especially in recent years)
        He’s had 2 runners in this since 2010 - Ned Buntline twice for JP - came 2nd then 4th.

        This is a race JP seems to target and thedevilscoachman would fit the profile of one of his you’d want to be on the right side of - I talk about JP runners here briefly in my trainer stats thread in the members area

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by ToniC View Post

          He’s had 2 runners in this since 2010 - Ned Buntline twice for JP - came 2nd then 4th.

          This is a race JP seems to target and thedevilscoachman would fit the profile of one of his you’d want to be on the right side of - I talk about JP runners here briefly in my trainer stats thread in the members area
          Not as many as I had hoped for then but what I had expected.

          Hopefully JP and team can twist his arm this year with Thedevilscoachman, but I don't have a huge amount of confidence in that as last year it seems like Meade won the battle to keep him at home when he was one of the favourites for the County.

          Thanks for the heads up I will have a look into your thread

          Comment


          • #7
            Not sure where to put this one up so gone for this thread as his 2 runs of late will have been at 2m (3 after Saturday), could also be a potential in the Plate I'd imagine too? I've heard nothing about Cheltenham for him & he's not priced up anywhere so have asked a few to price him up here & for Saturday and any race double...

            ADRIMEL - he's pretty quirky in that his form is practically all 1s or PUs, some of those PUs are exaggerated however. Last year's Festival, he led the Bartlett field the whole way round until 2 out where he tired getting up the hill and didn't see out 3m. Jumped well & travelled strongly throughout before markedly fading when Vanillier past him up the straight and Richard Johnson immediately pulled him up. Post race noting he lost a shoe. For a long time gave me a great run for my money at 80/1 on the second leg had doubled him up with from his prior Warwick win. The PU after came at Aintree behind My Drogo which probably came too soon after his Bartlett endeavours,

            2 chases so far this season - PU first (never travelled) & then 1 (blinkers applied seemed to do the trick). He's out again at Newcastle this weekend re-opposing all of the runners he beat last time out & one other. He won't have the pull in the weights this time round as he did before but he won by 15 lengths so not sure it will matter.

            He's trained by Tom Lacey so will be miles under the radar but given his run in the Bartlett last year think he warrants consideration here should he turn up. Best Chase OR is 139 so assume he'd be near the bottom of the handicap should he not get put up again?

            Comment


            • #8
              Originally posted by Winging The Last View Post
              Does anyone have data of trainers stats at the festival like runners by year etc?

              I just want to know about Noel Meade as I'm pretty interested in Thedevilscoachman but I have a feeling that he doesn't really send many horses to Cheltenham (especially in recent years)
              I quite like the look of coachman at 25s, eye catching run behind ferny, runs this Sunday and then I could see another run early February for a mark. I think they know the Arkle is out of reach, but I'd like to think they'd come here off a handy mark if playing their cards right.
              Long bitcoin, long gold, long silver, long g/s opening day Cheltenham Festival

              Comment


              • #9
                Nice of Mark Walsh to put thedevilscoachman straight through about 5 fences.

                Comment


                • #10
                  Thedevilscoachman and Gentleman De Mee seem to have very similar profiles for this race. Both finished behind Ferny on Chase debut then both finished second to another Mullins runner next time out. Both JP owned as well.

                  Comment


                  • #11
                    Originally posted by taylorch1990 View Post
                    Thedevilscoachman and Gentleman De Mee seem to have very similar profiles for this race. Both finished behind Ferny on Chase debut then both finished second to another Mullins runner next time out. Both JP owned as well.
                    Yepp both very much on the radar for this race for me.

                    Comment


                    • #12
                      I couldn't have Thedevilscoachman in this. Jumping needs to improve loads but over hurdles, his best runs were those were the pace was slow early on and he was able to use his pace late on to win. The 2 times he went up in grade, pace was stronger early on and he fell to pieces. Cheltenham would be completely wrong for him IMO.

                      I think the British hold the cards in this at the moment.

                      Comment


                      • #13
                        Originally posted by DenmanSacre View Post
                        I couldn't have Thedevilscoachman in this. Jumping needs to improve loads but over hurdles, his best runs were those were the pace was slow early on and he was able to use his pace late on to win. The 2 times he went up in grade, pace was stronger early on and he fell to pieces. Cheltenham would be completely wrong for him IMO.

                        I think the British hold the cards in this at the moment.
                        Who's your standout British horse for this? I've got Before Midnight in the book but nothing else atm.

                        Comment


                        • #14
                          [QUOTE=JamieSensible;n343578]

                          Who's your standout British horse for this? I've got Before Midnight in the book but nothing else atm.[/QUOTE
                          Impossible to say until entries are out

                          Comment


                          • #15
                            [QUOTE=Lobos;n343592]
                            Originally posted by JamieSensible View Post

                            Who's your standout British horse for this? I've got Before Midnight in the book but nothing else atm.[/QUOTE
                            Impossible to say until entries are out

                            ….name checked as a possible for this by Sam Thomas in his stable tour.

                            Comment

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