PADDY POWER PLATE Handicap Chase

[Eggs]

…..a bit of trend analysis;

The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +92.33 is when runners wore no equipment. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 2 starts in the past 180 days, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-68.

The course which has produced the most winners of the Festival Plate is Cheltenham which has seen a total number of 6 winners of this race who ran at Cheltenham last time out. The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Leopardstown, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Leopardstown last time out.

[Eggs]

…..2023 trend analysis for reference;

THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Had won at least 1 Chase but no more than 5.
- Were running off a career high H’cap rating, or no more than 3lb lower.
- Average H’cap rating of 142.
- Were not top weight, only 3 finished top 4.
- Had won on a course described as ‘galloping’.
- Finished 1st or 2nd in one of their last 3 outings (true for 39/40 horses finishing in 1st 4).

9 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Were aged 6-9
- Had won no more than 3 H’cap chases, 3 winning 0.
- Last ran in a Nov Ch or H’cap Ch on a galloping track, 5 at Chelt (The Shunter won a H’cap hurdle).

8 OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS;

- Were carrying less than 11st.
- Last ran no more than 70 days ago, including the last 7 winners.
- Had run at least 3 times that season, inc the last 7 winners who had won at least once that term (4 winning LTO, inc last 3).
- Had never won a chase at Chelt before.

KEY TRIALS;

Chelt PP H’cap Trophy in Jan & PP Gold Cup in Nov are useful trials, as are RP Gold Cup & PP New Years Day Chase.

TRAINER TRENDS;

- Henderson has won 4, the last coming in 2006.
- Pipe has 3 since 2010 & saddled 4 places.
- Elliott has only had a few runners but has 1 winner & 1 placed.

JOCKEY TREND;

- Bryan Cooper & Tom Scudamore have both won twice.

[Saxon Warrior]

Trends added to Page 1 Post 1 Eggs

[Istabraq]

Love this race, get suckered in to the Irish class act that won a G1 a year back that has been dropped a few pound who runs well to finish 7th.
Makes my Thursday, especially coming after the Stayers where I always have a stack of NR vouchers...

[Quevega]

This looks a very weak race this year, and I've already mentioned a standout bet in Lounge Lizard at 33-1.
Apologies for repeating myself but thought I'd add to it.
I've topped up since as I think he has an outstanding chance at those odds. He's bordering on the Shunter sort of returns and more.

Not with sexy connections but that run behind Ga Law needs to be seen, if that had been a Mcmanus horse or something sexier then he'd be close to Fav.
No idea if he runs, but it's his only entry.

The PP chase at trials day is a decent pointer for good handicap performances . Same C&D.
Sooner or later he's going to get mentioned especially if an intended runner and his price should settle at what it should be, around the 14 or 16-1 mark, which I thought was value before Ladbrokes and Coral priced him up
He should arguably have won against Ga Law as two iffy jumps at the last 2 fences cost him momentum and then the jockey seemed to take a while to organise him (horse seemed to have a good look around him and wears blinkers which is a slight negative) after the last but when he got going he was really moving. 3lb higher and on normal ground I reckon he's probably my best bet for the meeting. Front 3 well clear.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84LhXlUkNmA&t=346s

[ComplyOrDie]

Be on the cusp of getting in Quevega and you'd want a better jockey on, can't be dealing with all that faffing about with his hands malarkey at the festival

Think he gets in 5 of the last 10 so literally a 50/50 chance on his current mark. Think he's around the 22 mark currently, that's without the Irish lot entered. Can see a few not turning up from the British list already though, so he must just sneak in.

[Garrison Savannah]

As you say if he hadn’t made mistakes at 3 out of the last 4 fences….

…then again, jumping is the name of the game and if my auntie had bollocks she’d be my uncle

[Quevega]

Be on the cusp of getting in Quevega and you'd want a better jockey on, can't be dealing with all that faffing about with his hands malarkey at the festival

Think he gets in 5 of the last 10 so literally a 50/50 chance on his current mark. Think he's around the 22 mark currently, that's without the Irish lot entered. Can see a few not turning up from the British list already though, so he must just sneak in.

NRNB so don't really matter, but I agree, it might be touch and go.

[ComplyOrDie]

NRNB so don't really matter, but I agree, it might be touch and go.

Yeah, 100%. I just got involved. Think that's now the third or fourth bet I've had based on some of the cases you've made. Times are changing

[Black Dog]

I can't get much on with Lads/Coral, so had some free cash on with Unibet, ante post though. Looks a decent shout if he makes the cut.

[archie]

I'm not sure how significant this is but I was keeping an eye on entries on Tuesday and Crebilly was entered during the last half hour before closing which is fairly late in the general scheme of things. Clearly, his price contracted during the day but I'm not sure how the timings match up. Not difficult to imagine connections (quite legitimately) hoovering up best prices before committing.

[Lobos]

As you say if he hadn’t made mistakes at 3 out of the last 4 fences….

…then again, jumping is the name of the game and if my auntie had bollocks she’d be my uncle

Don't know about the second bit........not these days.

[Lobos]

I too was taken with the run of Lounge Lizard but wasn't expecting him to be put up for it so that did put me off. Looking at the race again the winner won very cosily and looked to have a bit more in hand side I can see why connections are supplementing for The Ryanair as he'd have an ew squeak in that.

[Quevega]

I'm not sure how significant this is but I was keeping an eye on entries on Tuesday and Crebilly was entered during the last half hour before closing which is fairly late in the general scheme of things. Clearly, his price contracted during the day but I'm not sure how the timings match up. Not difficult to imagine connections (quite legitimately) hoovering up best prices before committing.

Most of the markets were taken down that morning, and the money for him came mostly that afternoon and the following day.
People just cottoning on to the mark getting raised only 1lb and the front four in the betting, including at least 2/3 other Mcmanus owned horses not getting entered.

[Quevega]

I too was taken with the run of Lounge Lizard but wasn't expecting him to be put up for it so that did put me off. Looking at the race again the winner won very cosily and looked to have a bit more in hand side I can see why connections are supplementing for The Ryanair as he'd have an ew squeak in that.

Ga Law got 9lb and Lounge 3lb for 1 and 3/4 length.
Handicapper obviously thought so, but for a horse that looks quirky he was definitely closing fast.