PADDY POWER PLATE Handicap Chase

[DenmanSacre]

….I’ve popped the 10 year trend in the ‘trend thread’. An interesting one for this; 39 of the last 40 placed horses had finished 1st or 2nd in at least one of their previous 3 runs.

It is a race that rewards those in form and not ones that are particularly plotted for the race. Most of the UK winners also ran at Cheltenham in the same season, which you'd expect with so many Cheltenham meetings having a 2m4/2m5 handicap chase.

[Odin]

….I’ve popped the 10 year trend in the ‘trend thread’. An interesting one for this; 39 of the last 40 placed horses had finished 1st or 2nd in at least one of their previous 3 runs.

This would possibly make Spiritofthegames 3rd last year the exception? Dropped 8lbs across four runs that season but did finish third the run before he came here.

Interesting with respect to any British horses who may be getting dropped quickly (Global Citizen in the Grand Annual obviously the most prominent example) and could be an early glimpse at how the trend may not become so important moving forwards?

[EnvoiAlien]

1. Adamantly Chosen (IRE)

1. Balco Coastal (FR)

1. Barnacullia (IRE)

1. Bass Rock (FR)

1. Battleoverdoyen (IRE)

1. Black Gerry (IRE)

1. Bold Endeavour

1. Born By The Sea (IRE)

1. Bowtogreatness (IRE)

1. Call Me Lyreen (IRE)

1. Captain Tom Cat (IRE)

1. Celebre d'Allen (FR)

1. Champagne Gold (IRE)

1. Coole Cody (IRE)

1. Cooper's Cross (IRE)

1. Dads Lad (IRE)

1. Datsalrightgino (GER)

1. Elixir de Nutz (FR)

1. Embittered (IRE)

1. Eritage (FR)

1. Escaria Ten (FR)

1. Fantastic Lady (FR)

1. Fastorslow (FR)

1. Fil Dor (FR)

1. Fire Attack (IRE)

1. Flic Ou Voyou (FR)

1. Francky du Berlais (FR)

1. French Dynamite (FR)

1. Frero Banbou (FR)

1. Fugitif (FR)

1. Fusil Raffles (FR)

1. Gemirande (FR)

1. Gevrey (FR)

1. Glamorgan Duke (IRE)

1. Haut En Couleurs (FR)

1. Hereditary Rule (IRE)

1. Hitman (FR)

1. Hollow Games (IRE)

1. I Am Maximus (FR)

1. Il Courra (IRE)

1. Il Ridoto (FR)

1. Irascible (FR)

1. Kilcruit (IRE)

1. Knight In Dubai (IRE)

1. Mars Harper

1. Marvel de Cerisy (FR)

1. Midnight River

1. Midnight Run (IRE)

1. Minella Drama (IRE)

1. Minella Trump (IRE)

1. Next Destination (IRE)

1. Numitor

1. Percy Warner (IRE)

1. Presentandcounting (IRE)

1. Quick Draw (IRE)

1. Riviere d'Etel (FR)

1. Seddon (IRE)

1. Shakem Up'arry (IRE)

1. So Scottish (FR)

1. Stage Star (IRE)

1. Stolen Silver (FR)

1. Super Six

1. Two For Gold (IRE)

1. War Lord (GER)

[Birds Nest]

Frero banbou got the entry...

[Quevega]

I've been looking at Gordons entries for the plate, a race he's had success in.
Trying to identify Jack Kennedy or Davy Russell's ride isn't easy.

Gordon left out Ash Tree Meadow at the last minute and has only entered the following.... (unless I've missed one)

Battleoverdoyen 140 IRE (surely not a No1 ride)

Call Me Lyreen 141 IRE (hurdles 145 IRE)

Escaria Ten 151 (Heskin rides if runs ?) And no winner of the plate ever off mark of 150 or above.

Fil Dor ? (I'd say unlikely)

Gevrey 134 IRE (proper under the radar type this one so not sure)

Hollow Games 147 (needs another run asap and has an entry, But Gordon has said arkle is the plan)

Riviere Detel 149 IRE (likely for the mares)

Mars Harper 131 IRE (might not get in, and low weight jockey might be needed)


By my deduction it's either Mars Harper, Gevrey or Call Me Lyreen.
Mars Harper may not even get in, and if he did I doubt Davy would ride at such a low weight.
Gevrey looks sketchy. But is a possibility as never heard it mentioned once and ran in a flat race charity thing the other day.

So I'd side with Call Me Lyreen and have backed him and Mars Harper NRNB.

Call Me Lyreen won the big 2 mile handicap at the Dublin festival last year (138 IRE) and then had to run in the county off a mark of 152 (Basically top weight with a claimer taking 7lb)
He finished midfield 16 lengths behind state man, conceding him 11lb (minus the claim if you value that)

I'd say if he can escape with 4 or 5lb UK tax that some of his chase form gained over the summer makes him competitive.
In the 2 most valuable races he's ran in. His run just behind Visionarian conceding weight reads well, so does his running well alongside Kemboy and easy game until falling 4 out.

If he gets the best jockey the 33-1 NRNB would look a gift, you'd like to have under the tree.

[Kevloaf]

I've been looking at Gordons entries for the plate, a race he's had success in.
Trying to identify Jack Kennedy or Davy Russell's ride isn't easy.

Gordon left out Ash Tree Meadow at the last minute and has only entered the following.... (unless I've missed one)

Battleoverdoyen 140 IRE (surely not a No1 ride)

Call Me Lyreen 141 IRE (hurdles 145 IRE)

Escaria Ten 151 (Heskin rides if runs ?) And no winner of the plate ever off mark of 150 or above.

Fil Dor ? (I'd say unlikely)

Gevrey 134 IRE (proper under the radar type this one so not sure)

Hollow Games 147 (needs another run asap and has an entry, But Gordon has said arkle is the plan)

Riviere Detel 149 IRE (likely for the mares)

Mars Harper 131 IRE (might not get in, and low weight jockey might be needed)


By my deduction it's either Mars Harper, Gevrey or Call Me Lyreen.
Mars Harper may not even get in, and if he did I doubt Davy would ride at such a low weight.
Gevrey looks sketchy. But is a possibility as never heard it mentioned once and ran in a flat race charity thing the other day.

So I'd side with Call Me Lyreen and have backed him and Mars Harper NRNB.

Call Me Lyreen won the big 2 mile handicap at the Dublin festival last year (138 IRE) and then had to run in the county off a mark of 152 (Basically top weight with a claimer taking 7lb)
He finished midfield 16 lengths behind state man, conceding him 11lb (minus the claim if you value that)

I'd say if he can escape with 4 or 5lb UK tax that some of his chase form gained over the summer makes him competitive.
In the 2 most valuable races he's ran in. His run just behind Visionarian conceding weight reads well, so does his running well alongside Kemboy and easy game until falling 4 out.

If he gets the best jockey the 33-1 NRNB would look a gift, you'd like to have under the tree.

Would you prefer Davy on now than a 7lb claimer?

How much more is Davy worth..... and for how long?

[FinalFurlong91]

Will Davy ride in the handicaps?

Will he be able to ride in that many races over 4 consecutive days

Wouldn't be surprised if he prioritised the graded races

Be interesting to see what there plan is if jack isnt back

[Quevega]

Would you prefer Davy on now than a 7lb claimer?

How much more is Davy worth..... and for how long?

Depends on the claimer but yes definitely
And I’ve no idea

[Quevega]

Will Davy ride in the handicaps?

Will he be able to ride in that many races over 4 consecutive days

Wouldn't be surprised if he prioritised the graded races

Be interesting to see what there plan is if jack isnt back

I’d say yes he would
Why not ?

[Eggs]

….Sky now as low as 10-1 Frero Banbou, still 25-1 365.

[Carnage at Taunton]

….Sky now as low as 10-1 Frero Banbou, still 25-1 365.

Think WH biggest now at 20
365-16

[BookieBasher]

Think WH biggest now at 20
365-16

365 still 25/1 if your confident in this being his targeted race

[Rooster Booster]

365 still 25/1 if your confident in this being his targeted race

Has it been named?

[BookieBasher]

Has it been named?

No idea RB, although the 25s are tempting me in and taking a risk without NRNB. Seems the money is coming for him more for the Plate

[Eggs]

No idea RB, although the 25s are tempting me in and taking a risk without NRNB. Seems the money is coming for him more for the Plate

….22-1 NRNB with Hills boost.