PADDY POWER PLATE Handicap Chase

[Outlaw]

The glancing queen surely has better chance here than mares chase

Agreed, ran a really decent race lto vs the Venetia horse, lots to like on that run a mark of 141 surely isn’t her ceiling and bar trainer not being prolific at the fez she’s more interesting than most this far out.

[Danoli]

Does his chase mark of 155 make a follow up win here an easier task than a Coral Cup bid off a mark 7lb lower?

Could Rob James and his 7lb be this years Gainford?

[jswinburne1]

Just seen quite a compelling case made for Fusil Raffles on Twitter. Anybody think he will come here?

[jackh50]

Just seen quite a compelling case made for Fusil Raffles on Twitter. Anybody think he will come here?

Would’ve thought so, definitely well handicapped but I have reservations about how much he enjoys jumping whilst in and amongst horses, plenty of jumping errors in the big fields this year.

[Stormez]

Just seen quite a compelling case made for Fusil Raffles on Twitter. Anybody think he will come here?

It’s either here or the Ultima, and I’d think he’s pretty nailed on to come here. His C&D is really solid & has become pretty well handicapped this season.

[Jrow]

Hopefully Grand Paradis comes here as he would form part of a lovely Elliot treble.
The 3 horses who ran in the fairyhouse beginners chase - Floueur(Ultima), Frontal Assault and Grand Paradis

[TCH29]

Just seen quite a compelling case made for Fusil Raffles on Twitter. Anybody think he will come here?

Yes. And I think he’s hiding in plain sight. Not seen this case made on Twitter (no account) but in 13 runs over obstacles he’s never raced off a lower mark than 150 and he’s 149 here. Last year, over Course (New) and Distance in the Grade 1 Marsh/Turners, he finished 2nd with the horses either side by a couple of lengths now rated 160 and 164.

At Newbury in Oct he was beaten by BMG carrying 12pms extra. No shame in that. He then beat Kitty’s Light at Wetherby over 3m, form that has been enhanced by the recent Coral Trophy. He then ran respectably in the RP Gold Cup at Chelt with a bad mistake costing him I’m his rhythm in the middle of the race. I think he struggled in the SkyBet at Donny. Not the strongest of races and finished 5th with no race really run. But I do wonder whether he gets 3 miles. The RPR he ran to was so out of sync with his career, I’m happy to put a line through it.

He has C&D place form, he’s well in on all but his last run by 6lbs+ and he was considered a G1/G2 animal, and this is the Plate. 14/1 NRNB seems more than fair.

I just hope he does run here! A bit like Imperial Alcazar (albeit very different profiles), I just thing he can be very competitive here and won’t be in the alternative options.

[Lbur4288]

Just seen quite a compelling case made for Fusil Raffles on Twitter. Anybody think he will come here?

I've made case earlier in this thread.

[nortonscoin200]

It’s either here or the Ultima, and I’d think he’s pretty nailed on to come here. His C&D is really solid & has become pretty well handicapped this season.

That would be utterly brilliant

[DenmanSacre]

Just seen quite a compelling case made for Fusil Raffles on Twitter. Anybody think he will come here?

It is a disappointing renewal on the face of it and off his current mark, he's got an outstanding chance.

Nicky has a decent record in this with horses near the top of the handicap in recent years:

2021 - Top Notch 3rd off 154/ 11st 5 and Caribean Boy 7th off 153/ 11st 11
2020 - no runner
2019 - Janika 2nd off 156 / 11st 12. River Wylde pulled up off 150 / 11st 6

Top Notch, Caribean Boy and Janika all owned by Munir and Souede, like Fusil Raffles.

Fusil Raffles has taken in the December chase at Cheltenham over 2m4 this season. Janika ran in the 2m4 chase in the January meeting and Top Notch took in the rearranged Peterborough Chase at Cheltenham in the same season.

Fusil Raffles best 4 chase RPRs are at Cheltenham - 160 in last years Marsh (UK handicapper rated him 155 after that), 158 in December when finishing 4th to Coole Cody by 5 lengths (handicapper dropped him a pound and been dropped a further 2 pounds since), a 158 at Cheltenham in December 2020 beating Lieutenant Rocco by 4 lengths, giving 8 pounds and a 155 for a novice chase win in October 2020.

He has been running pretty consistently this year, yet has seen his handicap mark fall from 156 to 149, the lowest of his career.

His record over the mid distance over chases is 12P24, showing he is very consistent over this trip. He's been tried over 3m twice this season but he's not a 3 miler (he was fortunate to win the Charlie Hall with Shan Blue falling).

He does tend to be ridden prominently which is a massive plus in this race on the new course.

He isn't the cleanest of jumpers but if he can put in a decent round in, he will make a mockery of his mark IMO.

14s with Sky and Bet365 is more than fair.

Towards the head of the market, you've got :
Celebre D'Allen (worst value favourite of the whole festival)
Imperial Alcazar (interesting, but probably ruined his mark last time)
Birchdale (Cheltenham record is pretty poor and like Imperial Alcazar, his win at the DRF has probably ruined his mark)
Busselton (8 pound rise by the handicapper was harsh and I don't particularly like his form)
Grand Paradis ( I don't think this will be far enough and his jumping is generally poor)
The Shunter (hopefully go the hurdle list)
The Glancing Queen (Mares Chase)
A Wave of the Sea (Grand Annual?)
Simply The Betts (plenty high enough in the weights, but is consistent)

Somptueux if declared would be of interest but he is unfancied and I can's see the price reducing now. He would be of interest to me in the place market.

[darlojim]

Almost positive Nicky had alluded to FR going 3 mile next as 2 and half was quick enough for him.

[Studfarm254]

Almost positive Nicky had alluded to FR going 3 mile next as 2 and half was quick enough for him.

He did, that was before Doncaster. Ran terribly there so will maybe have a rethink.

[Outlaw]

Agreed, ran a really decent race lto vs the Venetia horse, lots to like on that run a mark of 141 surely isn’t her ceiling and bar trainer not being prolific at the fez she’s more interesting than most this far out.

Price was borderline and tbf was happy to wait until Decs as didn't think would be too popular given non irish and King trained etc, Segal put her up today so near the head of the market and will have to wait now.

[Eggs]

….Donald McCain plans to send just one runner to the Festival - Presentandcounting to the Plate.

[Eggs]

….Paul Kealy & Tom Segal both just tipped West Cork Wildway for this on a Preview night; still 25-1 Lads.

(now 20-1 best price).