PADDY POWER PLATE Handicap Chase

[Quevega]

Roger. So as it stands he'll need to run over fences once more to be eligible as, despite having a mark, he's only run twice over fences in his career.

[JackieMoon33]

That should be 'fingers up' emoji as it spoils my plan!

[Quevega]

i

That should be 'fingers up' emoji as it spoils my plan!

Might be one for next year then ?

[JackieMoon33]

i

Might be one for next year then ?

Where is the 'hand pump' emoji? I've not been that bad this year to be fair....

[Studfarm254]

Surely got to give fusil raffles a decent chance in this. Can get 22s with willhill boost and I think that’s worth chancing. Has a great record at Cheltenham and wasn’t beaten far when favourite the last day after making a notable mistake. Dropped another 1lb to 151 now. Same connections have gone close in this race in recent years with top notch off 154 and janika off 156. Also given the fact the handicapper seems to be giving the Irish horses harsher marks

[Spectre]

I had him marked out at the start of the season for this off low 150's. See my diary. I have wondered whether he might go to the Ryanair though, but I think Mister Fisher's run yesterday probably confirmed his birth in the race, and with Fusil Raffles mark what it is I finally took the plunge yesterday evening.

[Quevega]

I had him marked out at the start of the season for this off low 150's. See my diary. I have wondered whether he might go to the Ryanair though, but I think Mister Fisher's run yesterday probably confirmed his birth in the race, and with Fusil Raffles mark what it is I finally took the plunge yesterday evening.

I know they can often run well, these types but I pretty much rule out anything rated over 150 on this race. But I can see why this horse would attract some followers.

But in this race Not many of them challenge the judge and the average rating of the winner is approx 10lbs or so below.
I think on the front page it shows only 1 horse rated 150+ has finished in the first 2 in the last 10 or so renewals.
It seems to be a race that is tough for the more exposed higher rated types, probably due to the distance.
I think that's a strong enough stat to help narrow the field.

Higher rated horses do better over the staying trips in handicaps, like the Ultima, so I don't discount them as much, but never back a novice over 150 that's for sure, cos they never fucking win unless they are 3 season cheat novices like Sky Pirate, whom I think is the only one.

There are not many rated 150 or above that win any handicaps at the festival full stop to be honest.
So I'm always wary of them.

[Spectre]

Not many agreed. Plenty have placed. It's also worth a glance back at the last few Plates to see what type run very well in it.

As for Fusil Raffles, he fits the bill in terms of course experience and results, and a cursory look at his form suggests that on more than one formline his mark may be very workable.

He could be vulnerable to an Irish trainer getting a graded horse in there off the low 140's. Noble Yeats and Gabynako would be the ones that would concern me most, and whatever Elliott has for it, but I can't currently see one of his jumping off the page. JP has two or three likely types, one of which I like. Vienna Court would be the UK horse that I could see running a big race if she doesn't go to the Mares Chase. Magic Saint is coming down the handicap too, and runs well round HQ.

When you consider the likely types though I think Fusil Raffles is actually one you'd want onside.

The trifecta's in there somewhere too!

If it comes in be sure to remind me, but if not this never existed.

[Quevega]

Plenty have placed.

I've not fact checked the front page, but it's 5 from 44 places (using the first 4) - obviously no winners,
So for win and place purposes I'd say they are worth avoiding, and they are often over bet and under priced cos they are more high profile/known to the casuals.

[Spectre]

To use that stat against you also need to use the equivalent percentage of horses that have run carrying 150+ Q. I don't have the time at the moment, but I'd be very surprised if it came up with a stat that you'd say was a negative.

[Quevega]

To use that stat against you also need to use the equivalent percentage of horses that have run carrying 150+ Q. I don't have the time at the moment, but I'd be very surprised if it came up with a stat that you'd say was a negative.

could be a fair point.
can't be arsed looking but 3 last year and 5 year before.
i'd guess they'll be below par but not by much.

[JackieMoon33]

Papa Tango Charly runs in the Grade 2 opener at Haddock today. It’s not a particularly hot race but if he were to win, he’d probably blow his mark for this.

[Benjy23]

Papa Tango Charly runs in the Grade 2 opener at Haddock today. It’s not a particularly hot race but if he were to win, he’d probably blow his mark for this.

aye, they've found a very weak G2 haven't they. Probably going to ruin his mark while not beating much.

[JackieMoon33]

Papa Tango Charly runs in the Grade 2 opener at Haddock today. It’s not a particularly hot race but if he were to win, he’d probably blow his mark for this.

Hasn’t blown his mark but jumped terribly in comparison to what he’d done previously. Threw in the towel after one too many mistakes.

[HoldenTheReins]

Liked Palmers Hills for this, if he wins today mark will probably be blown