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Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Rider Handicap Chase
10+ years ago, I'd have had him as a positive but not so sure now. I suppose he did land one with the mighty Sky Pirate four years ago.
I think the stable has improved a ton this season. His son must have shaken a few things up there.
I can't be having Jonnywho either though regardless of trainer. I just don't see him being good enough to be a plot job. I don't think there are any secrets or a bit up the sleeve with him.
I think the stable has improved a ton this season. His son must have shaken a few things up there.
I can't be having Jonnywho either though regardless of trainer. I just don't see him being good enough to be a plot job. I don't think there are any secrets or a bit up the sleeve with him.
They probably don't have the horses either tbf. Back in the day, if you gave Jonjo the ammo he could land these handicap races with regularity. Holywell, Wichita Lineman and Alfie Sherrin are 3 that spring to mind.
I'm not convinced by him either, but took 10s and 8s earlier. It's an easy arb at the very least.
They probably don't have the horses either tbf. Back in the day, if you gave Jonjo the ammo he could land these handicap races with regularity. Holywell, Wichita Lineman and Alfie Sherrin are 3 that spring to mind.
I'm not convinced by him either, but took 10s and 8s earlier. It's an easy arb at the very least.
Oh yes. Sunnyhillboy was the lad for a proper plot.
I've ran each handicap tomrorow through ChatGPT's deep research mode, this is what it gave me for the Kim Muir Key Trends from the Last 20 Kim Muir Winners
Age: The majority of Kim Muir winners are aged 7–9. In fact, 17 of the last 20 winners fell in this range gaultstats.com
. Only a few exceptions (e.g. a 6-year-old in 2024, a 10-year-old in 2022, a 12-year-old in 2015) have won outside this age bracket. This suggests an age sweet-spot of 7–9 years for likely contenders.
Weight Carried: Almost all recent winners carried a weight of 11 stone or more. 11 of the last 12 winners lugged ≥11st 0lb thestatsdontlie.com
, indicating that horses lower in the handicap (carrying 10-something stone) have a tougher time. In other words, being towards the higher end of the handicap (but within the 11st–11st12 range) has been an advantage, reflecting the fact that classier, higher-rated horses tend to prevail.
Official Rating: Related to weight, winners typically have been highly rated handicappers. Most had an official rating in the high-130s to mid-140s. Notably, 11 of the last 13 winners were rated between 137 and 145 gaultstats.com
, which is the upper band of eligibility for this race (a 0-145 handicap). Very few winners were rated much below 137, implying you generally need a classy horse near the top of the ratings.
Previous Race Performance: Recent form is important, but coming off a win is not. Only 2 of the last 22 winners had won on their previous start gaultstats.com
. In other words, a last-time-out victory is actually uncommon for Kim Muir winners – many had been beaten in their prior race. However, most did show some positive form or a solid run in recent starts. Nearly all winners had run relatively recently (11 of the last 12 had run within the previous 76 days) thestatsdontlie.com
, so a run in the last 2–3 months is a common thread. A respectable finish (not necessarily a win) last time out, often in a decent class race, fits the typical profile.
Number of Season Runs: Kim Muir winners are battle-hardened but not over-raced in their campaign. All of the last 20 winners had at least two runs in the season before Cheltenham gaultstats.com
, and in practice most had 3 or more. This suggests avoiding horses that are either too lightly raced (just one or zero runs since autumn) or, conversely, completely exposed from a long, taxing season. A couple of prep runs (often 2–4 runs since the start of the season) hits the sweet spot for fitness and form.
Trainer Patterns: Certain yards have traditionally done well – and some notable ones have not. No winner in the past two decades has been trained by Willie Mullins or Paul Nicholls gaultstats.com
, despite those two being powerhouse trainers (they don’t target this race as much). By contrast, other trainers have had success: e.g. Gordon Elliott trained the 2016 and 2020 winners (and technically the 2021 winner, through his assistant) cheltenhamfestival.fans
, and the Pipe family (Martin Pipe in 2003 and David Pipe in 2011 & 2015) have a few wins as well. Nicky Henderson won this in 2005 cheltenhamfestival.fans
but hasn’t since. Irish trainers have become very prominent recently – for instance, Irish-trained horses filled the first seven places in 2023 gaultstats.com
and have won several of the last 10 renewals. This trend reflects the increasing strength of Irish stables and their amateur riders in festival handicaps.
Other Common Factors: Experience and class in certain areas can be a factor. The last six winners were novices (first-season chasers) gaultstats.com
– suggesting that an unexposed chaser on the upgrade is ideal in recent years. Many winners also had some Cheltenham experience or festival appearances in their profile, or had competed in other major handicap chases (e.g. the December Cheltenham meeting or Irish equivalents) as a learning experience. Additionally, top amateur jockeys often make a difference – Irish amateur riders have won 8 of the last 10 runnings gaultstats.com
, with names like Jamie Codd (4 wins) and Derek O’Connor (2 wins) frequently associated gaultstats.com
. Finally, almost every recent winner was British- or Irish-bred; only one French-bred horse (Chambard in 2022) has won in the last 18 renewals gaultstats.com
, reflecting a historic bias toward UK/Irish jumping pedigrees in this race.
Trends vs. Tomorrow’s Declared Runners
There are 24 declared runners for tomorrow’s Kim Muir (Day 3 of the Festival) racingpost.com
. Below is a list of each horse in the line-up, with the number of key trends (from above) that they match. Note that this is not a ranking of merits, but rather a count of how many of the identified profile trends each horse fits:
Fantastic Lady – Matches 5 trends (ticks the boxes for weight, rating, recent run, season runs, and trainer pattern; but she is older than the ideal age range and is not a novice).
Yeah Man – Matches 6 trends (fits age, weight, rating, recent run, season runs, trainer; not a novice chaser, but otherwise fits the winners’ profile well).
Sa Majeste – Matches 6 trends (ideal age 7, appropriate weight, high rating, hasn’t just won last time, has enough runs, is a novice chaser; the one negative is being from Willie Mullins’ yard, which has never won this race).
Johnnywho – Matches 7 trends (checks all the main trends: 8 years old, plenty of weight and a lofty rating, did not win last time, has run at least twice this season, trained by a yard with past success in handicaps (Jonjo O’Neill), and is a novice chaser).
Gelino Bello – Matches 5 trends (has the weight, age, rating, recent run, season prep; he’s not a novice and is trained by Paul Nicholls, who has yet to win this race – that trainer trend is a slight negative).
Mint Boy – Matches 7 trends (ticks every trends box: 7 years old, decent weight and OR 138, comes here after a good effort rather than a win, has multiple runs in season, Irish-trained but not by Mullins, and is a first-season chaser).
Weveallbeencaught – Matches 6 trends (age 8, carries 11-6, just below the typical rating cutoff but close, ran recently (5th last run), has two runs this season, from an in-form UK yard, and is a novice chaser).
Cleatus Poolaw – Matches 6 trends (7yo novice from Gordon Elliott’s yard – which has a good record – carrying 11-5; his official mark 135 is a touch lower than most past winners, but otherwise he fits the profile well).
Manothepeople – Matches 4 trends (carries 11-5 and has had a couple of runs this season for a smaller UK yard, but as a 10-year-old he’s older than the typical winner and his rating is a bit low; also not a novice).
Sine Nomine – Matches 5 trends (9 years old with 11-3 weight, hasn’t won recently, has run twice this season, and is from a small yard – all positives. However, she isn’t a novice and her rating (133) is below the usual winner’s range).
Git Maker – Matches 5 trends (9yo carrying 11-3, arrives off a non-win last run, with two runs this season, from a non-powerhouse trainer – all good. Lacks novice status and is rated 133, a bit on the low side for a typical winner).
Nine Graces – Matches 5 trends (8yo novice with 11-3 for an Irish trainer – those are positives. She did win last time out, which goes against the grain, and her OR 133 is a tad below the ideal band, so she misses on those two trends).
Midnight Our Fred – Matches 5 trends (8yo carrying 11-2 who has been running well in big fields; hasn’t won recently and has the right prep profile. Not a novice, and his 132 rating is below the usual winning range, which knocks him off two of the trend criteria).
Music Of Tara – Matches 6 trends (8yo mare from Gordon Elliott’s yard, carries 11-2 off OR 132, and is a novice. She didn’t win her last race and has run twice this winter. The only minor knock is her rating is slightly under 137, but she meets most of the key trends).
Where It All Began – Matches 5 trends (9yo with 11-2 for Gordon Elliott. He fits age, weight, recent run (fell last time, so no win), and season runs. He isn’t a novice (ran in this race last year) and his OR 132 is a bit low, but otherwise has a similar profile to past winners).
Westerninthepark – Matches 6 trends (7-year-old novice carrying 11-2 for an up-and-coming UK trainer; has run well this season without winning, which matches the usual pattern. His rating 132 is slightly below the ideal range, but he fits the rest of the trends nicely).
Wiseguy – Matches 6 trends (9yo carrying 11-0 for Nicky Henderson. He’s a novice chaser who won earlier in the season and was not disgraced last time out. He checks most boxes except official rating (130) which is below the typical winner’s level – and Henderson’s last win in this was 20 years ago, though that’s less of a hard “trend” than Mullins/Nicholls).
Daily Present – Matches 5 trends (8yo with 11-0 for an Irish yard, has two good placed runs this season (no win) and fits the age/weight profile. He’s not a novice and is rated 130, so those two trends are missing in his case).
Galop De Chasse – Matches 5 trends (9yo carrying 11-0 for Venetia Williams. Has a couple of runs this season and didn’t win last time. He’s not a novice and his mark 130 is below the preferred range, but otherwise aligns with several trends like age, weight, recency).
Now Where Or When – Matches 3 trends (10-year-old with 11-0, so he does carry the weight but fails a few trends: he’s older than ideal and he won his last race, which only 2 of the last 22 winners had done. His rating 130 is also on the low side. He has had two runs this season and is from a small yard, but overall he matches the fewest trends on this list).
Pats Fancy – Matches 3 trends (another 10-year-old at 11-0 who is outside the ideal age and also has been very lightly raced – only one run – this season, which is below the usual preparation level. He didn’t win last time (which is fine) but his form and rating (130) leave him short of many trends).
Grozni – Matches 4 trends (9yo carrying 10-13, just a pound under the 11st benchmark. He’s run a couple of times this season and didn’t win last time. However, his rating 129 is low and he’s not a novice. He hits the age trend and has recent run experience, but falls shy on a few other factors).
Walking On Air – Matches 5 trends (8-year-old novice with 10-13 for a smaller UK stable. He was travelling well before a fall last time out, so no last-time win to worry about, and he’s run enough this season. He does fall below the weight and rating ranges that most winners had, but otherwise fits a number of the trends).
Dom Of Mary – Matches 4 trends (9yo carrying 10-11 for a small yard. He was a close 2nd on his latest start (so arrives off good form without a win) and has had two runs this season. Being below 11st (10-11) and rated only 127 are the main negatives relative to past winners’ profile, and he’s not a novice. He has a few positives but also misses several of the key winning trends).
Each horse above has been evaluated against the established trends from the past 20 Kim Muir victors. While none of these guarantee success, horses that match more of the historical trends (age, weight, rating, recent form pattern, season prep, etc.) tend to have profiles similar to previous winners. It’s worth noting, however, that trends can be broken – for example, a horse like Now Where Or When (who won last time out and is older) defies some trends, but that doesn’t completely rule him out. The trend counts simply highlight how closely each runner’s profile aligns with what has been a recipe for success in this race’s recent history. In a handicap as competitive as the Kim Muir, these factors can be helpful pointers alongside other considerations, keeping in mind the race can still produce surprises.
Could well be another emotional finish to the day tomorrow.
Noticed A O'Sullivan jocked up this morning.
Hadn't realised that he'd been booked for the horse when I backed it last week when the money started to come.
Was looking like winning easily at Donny when I was there, and the form looks solid given what Changing Man has done since.
Lets hope he gets round safely.
It's obviously well fancied and the gamble today has been mad, 3-1 best now
Could well be another emotional finish to the day tomorrow.
Noticed A O'Sullivan jocked up this morning.
Hadn't realised that he'd been booked for the horse when I backed it last week when the money started to come.
Was looking like winning easily at Donny when I was there, and the form looks solid given what Changing Man has done since.
Lets hope he gets round safely.
It's obviously well fancied and the gamble today has been mad, 3-1 best now
Ahhh I did wonder why walking on air was so short
He is chucked in on old form would love to see a win
He should've been awarded the win in the stewards room off 138 at newbury on chase debut. 129 hes thrown in if theyve got him back.
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