Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Rider Handicap Chase

[Yosser]

Lots of stayers can take that sort of work anyhow, it's not like it's a prima donna grade one horse.

Chambard ran 5 times before winning the Kim Muir, from 1st Jan.
including twice in the four weeks before the race, on soft.

Kittys Light won the scottish grand national and then the whitbread Gold cup a week later.

Loads of other examples.

That's a barmy stat

[Quevega]

That's a barmy stat

Yeah, I'd backed about 6 in the race over the weeks running up and most had halved in price or so.
Sat watching with Cigar out wondering which one would come in for me.

My mate who doesn't bother till the day backed Chambard at 50-1.

I'd spent hours fucking about from January onwards and that clown picked a horse at 50's that had no chance.

The annoying thing was I'd looked at the horse and ruled it out as couldn't see it getting declared after running so near the race.
Then in the Fog of the actual festival I'd barely even noticed it had actually been declared.

Never take your eye off the ball.

[Yosser]

Yeah, I'd backed about 6 in the race over the weeks running up and most had halved in price or so.
Sat watching with Cigar out wondering which one would come in for me.

My mate who doesn't bother till the day backed Chambard at 50-1.

I'd spent hours fucking about from January onwards and that clown picked a horse at 50's that had no chance.

The annoying thing was I'd looked at the horse and ruled it out as couldn't see it getting declared after running so near the race.
Then in the Fog of the actual festival I'd barely even noticed it had actually been declared.

Never take your eye off the ball.

My mate did exactly the same to me. He does do the horses but in the 1 race 1 horse days i had backed Gowel Road for the Coral Cup at a nice price and was counting my money. The turd just decided to pick Commander Of Fleet out of nowhere at 50/1. I asked why he picked that after he had finished laughing at me. he said 'because he was at work and as he was looking through the race he saw his boss making his way towards him and he would have got told off for being on his phone so he just pressed the button on the horse he was looking at' gobshite. Kind of thing my ex would do, Auroras sodding Encore in the grand national because of Aurora off Sleeping Beauty. I helped her spend her winnings that night though.

[Killiney]

Had to babysit my daughter’s house yesterday and spent the time using stats here on this race. I boiled it down to 4 Irish Horses. Midnight Our Fred, Daily Present, Will Do and Yeah Man. The key stat seemed to me to be having run at least once at 3m2f. Only 9 under 25/1 did that. Had a little ew on all of them!

[Durham Edition]

Had to babysit my daughter’s house yesterday and spent the time using stats here on this race. I boiled it down to 4 Irish Horses. Midnight Our Fred, Daily Present, Will Do and Yeah Man. The key stat seemed to me to be having run at least once at 3m2f. Only 9 under 25/1 did that. Had a little ew on all of them!

Quick question why did you focus on the 9 under 25/1?

[ComplyOrDie]

Had to babysit my daughter’s house yesterday and spent the time using stats here on this race. I boiled it down to 4 Irish Horses. Midnight Our Fred, Daily Present, Will Do and Yeah Man. The key stat seemed to me to be having run at least once at 3m2f. Only 9 under 25/1 did that. Had a little ew on all of them!

3 of the last 5 winners would have been missed using this stat.

Milan Native
Mount Ida
Inothewayurthinkin

None of which had run over 3m let alone 3m2f.

[Quevega]

Had to babysit my daughter’s house yesterday and spent the time using stats here on this race. I boiled it down to 4 Irish Horses. Midnight Our Fred, Daily Present, Will Do and Yeah Man. The key stat seemed to me to be having run at least once at 3m2f. Only 9 under 25/1 did that. Had a little ew on all of them!

Gordon mentioned Will Do for the NH chase the other night. Just FYI.

[Benjy23]

Big problem for trends in the handicap chases is the two new novice handicaps. The last six winners of this were novices I believe... How many of those would've actually run here?

[ComplyOrDie]

Big problem for trends in the handicap chases is the two new novice handicaps. The last six winners of this were novices I believe... How many of those would've actually run here?

Still a few Irish novices in the entries

[Benjy23]

Still a few Irish novices in the entries

For sure. The majority of which are also in the novice handicaps

[Killiney]

Quick question why did you focus on the 9 under 25/1?

I went through every horse up to 33/1 ie 25/1 and under and 9 met this stat. So that was my starting point. However Cor D has queried the stat (which is at the start of this thread).

[Killiney]

Gordon mentioned Will Do for the NH chase the other night. Just FYI.

Thanks for that - now have him covered.

[Eggs]

….Elliott;

I’ll probably run four: Cleatus Poolaw, Favori De Champdou, Music Of Tara and Where It All Began. Off his mark, probably Favori De Champdou [is our best chance]. He’s running consistently in those staying handicap chases. I don’t know if he has enough up his sleeve or is good enough, but he could be placed. Music Of Tara has never tried this trip before, but I think it could suit her.

[Durham Edition]

….Elliott;

I’ll probably run four: Cleatus Poolaw, Favori De Champdou, Music Of Tara and Where It All Began. Off his mark, probably Favori De Champdou [is our best chance]. He’s running consistently in those staying handicap chases. I don’t know if he has enough up his sleeve or is good enough, but he could be placed. Music Of Tara has never tried this trip before, but I think it could suit her.

I backed Where it all began the other day at 50's. 4th in this last year coming in off a lower mark this year (can't remember how much lower) thought at 50's might have a squeeze or an ew place.

[Mr mulligan76]

It’s not that original but I’ve had transmission in mind for this all year. Won at November meeting with Patrick Mullins on board so I believe that was a test drive with the festival in mind. and hunted around and flew up hill to win. Then run in hurdle races since to protect his mark, also entered in NH chase but now that open to professional jockeys. I believe the Kim muir will be the aim