Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Rider Handicap Chase

[AaronLad]

No mention of Indigo Breeze in the stable tour? I would of thought he was laid out for this. Very odd

I understand your doubts, one I hope will run well at cheltenham wasn't mentioned either.
But i've popped the link below for his racing post stable tour which is in last years thread, Commander of fleet didn't get a mention here and he went on to win the coral cup and neither did delta work who won the x-country, His 2 winners last year.

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...e19#post357021

[robith]

Would it be a bad thing that he's not mentioned him for it?

Gordon, on different previews nights, naps different things .... leaves info out of some but 'spills' it in another.

It's not his first day on the planet....





That said, would have liked an update

Got taken to the Betfair preview night a few years ago, someone from the crowd asked about The Storyteller. This would've been the season before he won the plate, when he didn't make the festival. Gordie simply replied "You like The Storyteller? You're a smart guy" and moved on. Still cracks me up thinking about it.

He would also say "well, I'm not a betting man" then reel off the whole market and every price off the top of his head

[Saxon Warrior]

Got taken to the Betfair preview night a few years ago, someone from the crowd asked about The Storyteller. This would've been the season before he won the plate, when he didn't make the festival. Gordie simply replied "You like The Storyteller? You're a smart guy" and moved on. Still cracks me up thinking about it.

He would also say "well, I'm not a betting man" then reel off the whole market and every price off the top of his head

Yeah.

He got injured before the M.Pipe having plunged into 4/1Fav from 16s for it.
(easy to say when they dont run....but......on what followed for him after.....wouldve hosed up!)

Gutted, for him and connections, at the time.
Revenge was sweet in the Plate
Cracking horse.

[Saxon Warrior]

Well I decided to cash out 2 bets and wait until entries are out on Tuesday. The last thing I want this year is to end up with non runners in handicaps, it would go against everything I said at the start of the season.

The racing post stable tours seem to be poor this year, Gordon's wasn't too bad but Willie's was shocking.

Given the prices, and his last run.
Id say its a good call to cash and reback NRNB, after entries tomorrow.
Prices are reasonable still.

Covers off the chance he doesn't get an entry for it tomorrow too.

[Muswell]

Gordie simply replied "You like The Storyteller? You're a smart guy"

this has me picturing him as a goodfellas style mafioso

[robith]

Am I going mad but I can't see Dunboyne listed on this market on PP?

[Muswell]

It’s not on there or the sportsbook

[Eggs]

Am I going mad but I can't see Dunboyne listed on this market on PP?

….nor on Betfair, plenty of blue elsewhere on Oddschecker.

[SamuelP]

Personally I can't have Dunboyne for this or any other race at Cheltenham. The horse makes Santini look fast. Off 132 in the Pertemps last year he couldn't get near the action, was 12th/13th off the bend, still not making up ground with his effort so Jack gave him an easy time of it. Yes I appreciate it's hurdles, and he may have improved for a fence/improved in general but it's 3m on the new course so not too dissimilar. This season over fences, he couldn't lay up in his first 2 starts, finished behind a long away. Some will say this was the plan perhaps but i dont believe that. He then won a race (heavy ground) not beating anything of note, before being pulled up and then a decent effort in coming 2nd to Carefully Selected in the Theystes. This again was on soft ground/heavy in places. I know the Kim Muir is a trip, but feel that Dunboyne may need slow ground to be seen at his best, can't have him on spring ground and think there will be horses who may have already got away from him by the time he is asked for maximum effort up the hill.

[Spectre]

Personally I can't have Dunboyne for this or any other race at Cheltenham. The horse makes Santini look fast. Off 132 in the Pertemps last year he couldn't get near the action, was 12th/13th off the bend, still not making up ground with his effort so Jack gave him an easy time of it. Yes I appreciate it's hurdles, and he may have improved for a fence/improved in general but it's 3m on the new course so not too dissimilar. This season over fences, he couldn't lay up in his first 2 starts, finished behind a long away. Some will say this was the plan perhaps but i dont believe that. He then won a race (heavy ground) not beating anything of note, before being pulled up and then a decent effort in coming 2nd to Carefully Selected in the Theystes. This again was on soft ground/heavy in places. I know the Kim Muir is a trip, but feel that Dunboyne may need slow ground to be seen at his best, can't have him on spring ground and think there will be horses who may have already got away from him by the time he is asked for maximum effort up the hill.

I agree with this and that Dunboyne needs slow ground. I wouldn't back for this or any race at the Festival unless it came up soft. At the point I thought that might happen though I'd take whatever price was available.

[Quevega]

Personally I can't have Dunboyne for this or any other race at Cheltenham. The horse makes Santini look fast. Off 132 in the Pertemps last year he couldn't get near the action, was 12th/13th off the bend, still not making up ground with his effort so Jack gave him an easy time of it. Yes I appreciate it's hurdles, and he may have improved for a fence/improved in general but it's 3m on the new course so not too dissimilar. This season over fences, he couldn't lay up in his first 2 starts, finished behind a long away. Some will say this was the plan perhaps but i dont believe that. He then won a race (heavy ground) not beating anything of note, before being pulled up and then a decent effort in coming 2nd to Carefully Selected in the Theystes. This again was on soft ground/heavy in places. I know the Kim Muir is a trip, but feel that Dunboyne may need slow ground to be seen at his best, can't have him on spring ground and think there will be horses who may have already got away from him by the time he is asked for maximum effort up the hill.

Having been campaigned as a handicapper I'd take most of his form with a pinch.
His best piece of form was his last run for which he's been given a light rise for, considering.

Last season a lot of Elliot runners ran pretty moderately so that wouldn't concern me either.

With regards the ground, I would definitely disagree.
Breeding suggests stamina with no real ground preference's. If anything, longer trips for horses by Yeats on decent ground are ideal conditions.
We all know what Yeats did (4 ascot gold cups on Gd/Fm) , and his progeny have followed suit.
His dam sire's best ever run was in the Irish Derby on Gd/Fm.
All his dams wins and places were on good or better.

His specific form means less than it would for a graded performer as he may not have always have been run on his merits ( the counter argument to this is that he is just really inconsistent - as is often the case with handicappers and why they operate at that level) - I wouldn't argue the case against the counter argument. It's this that is the biggest issue with this horse, if true.

And with regards him getting out paced in a Kim Muir !! - it's the Kim Muir ! - They are usually all plodders.
Horses coming from off the pace usually fare quite well also.

However, I'm not going to argue the case for a handicapper much more than I have already in this response.
It's a handicap and called that for a reason.
In theory they all should finish equal first.

[Eggs]

…..just had a quick scan of the trends & it looks to me like Dunboyne ticks all of the 10 main benchmarks. Others like Panda Boy & Stumptown are stronger than Mr Incredible who falls on a few.

[Saxon Warrior]

…..just had a quick scan of the trends & it looks to me like Dunboyne ticks all of the 10 main benchmarks. Others like Panda Boy & Stumptown are stronger than Mr Incredible who falls on a few.

I would be happy with……

Dunboyne as Gordon’s best hope for the race

Stumptown as Gavin’s improver

as my only two picks, until Entries and Weights lead to a final decision on adding any others or not.

Dunboyne just ran a near lifetime best when just touched off in the Thyestes Chase the last day.
* I really like the 3rd in that race, Pencilfulloflead, as an Aintree Grand National outsider.
* …………whilst the Thyestes 4th Coko Beach, just hosed up in the Graded Hcap Irish National Chase yesterday

2yrs ago in the Thyestes, most of us were roaringly happy with
- Coko Beach (winner) and
- Run Wild Fred (runner-up) form,

particularly when Fred was given only a 4lb rise by the HRI and the BHA, and was made a very short Kim Muir Fav, before bailing out for the much bigger prize of the Irish National where he ran a stormer to finish second off 140.

Whilst Coko Beach won the Irish National Trial for the first time, off 150.

I think this years Thyestes could have some merit too, and Coko Beach has just sparked that off nicely on Sunday.

Roll on the Thyestes
winner - Carefully Selected (Irish National)
2nd - Dunboyne (Kim Muir)
3rd - Pencilfulloflead (Grand National)
………following on, in the 4th placed Coko Beach’s example.

Here’s hoping one of these can win their target race.

[SamuelP]

Having been campaigned as a handicapper I'd take most of his form with a pinch.
His best piece of form was his last run for which he's been given a light rise for, considering.

Last season a lot of Elliot runners ran pretty moderately so that wouldn't concern me either.

With regards the ground, I would definitely disagree.
Breeding suggests stamina with no real ground preference's. If anything, longer trips for horses by Yeats on decent ground are ideal conditions.
We all know what Yeats did (4 ascot gold cups on Gd/Fm) , and his progeny have followed suit.
His dam sire's best ever run was in the Irish Derby on Gd/Fm.
All his dams wins and places were on good or better.

His specific form means less than it would for a graded performer as he may not have always have been run on his merits ( the counter argument to this is that he is just really inconsistent - as is often the case with handicappers and why they operate at that level) - I wouldn't argue the case against the counter argument. It's this that is the biggest issue with this horse, if true.

And with regards him getting out paced in a Kim Muir !! - it's the Kim Muir ! - They are usually all plodders.
Horses coming from off the pace usually fare quite well also.

However, I'm not going to argue the case for a handicapper much more than I have already in this response.
It's a handicap and called that for a reason.
In theory they all should finish equal first.

Cheers for your response and I understand you don't want to respond any further about this, but wanted to just reply to make a couple of points. You make the point that he has been campaigned as a handicapper, but other than the Thyestes and handicap chase at Gowran earlier on he hasn't featured in any of the decent/decentish ones he's raced: 11th in Fairyhouse 50k handicap (yielding/good to yielding), 8th in Naas 40k handicap (yielding/good to yielding), 11th in Navan 100k handicap (yielding/good in places), 5th in 30k pertemps qualifier (soft), 13th in Leopardstown 100k handicap (yielding), 16th in Cheltenham 100k handicap (soft), R in 45k Punchestown handicap (not relevant), 1st in Gowran Park 40k handicap (heavy), 2nd in Gowran Park 100k handicap (soft to heavy). There's a lot of handicap prize money to not go for if you are saying he hasn't run to his best over his career.
You could argue that he is simply a better chaser than hurdler which is probably true, but I don't think it's any coincidence that his 2 better performances have come on heavy and soft to heavy. I respect your angle on the ground preference of his sire, but the evidence of his career suggests he has struggled on better ground, and performed better on slower ground. Therefore, imo I would only be betting him for the Kim Muir if it came up soft or worse (as Spectre has said above), but I'd be reckoning with the dry winter and long range forecast it will be better ground at the festival.
And I know it's the Kim Muir and they're all plodders but he needs another few miles imo
He'll probably hack up now on good to firm

[Quevega]

Cheers for your response and I understand you don't want to respond any further about this, but wanted to just reply to make a couple of points. You make the point that he has been campaigned as a handicapper, but other than the Thyestes and handicap chase at Gowran earlier on he hasn't featured in any of the decent/decentish ones he's raced: 11th in Fairyhouse 50k handicap (yielding/good to yielding), 8th in Naas 40k handicap (yielding/good to yielding), 11th in Navan 100k handicap (yielding/good in places), 5th in 30k pertemps qualifier (soft), 13th in Leopardstown 100k handicap (yielding), 16th in Cheltenham 100k handicap (soft), R in 45k Punchestown handicap (not relevant), 1st in Gowran Park 40k handicap (heavy), 2nd in Gowran Park 100k handicap (soft to heavy). There's a lot of handicap prize money to not go for if you are saying he hasn't run to his best over his career.
You could argue that he is simply a better chaser than hurdler which is probably true, but I don't think it's any coincidence that his 2 better performances have come on heavy and soft to heavy. I respect your angle on the ground preference of his sire, but the evidence of his career suggests he has struggled on better ground, and performed better on slower ground. Therefore, imo I would only be betting him for the Kim Muir if it came up soft or worse (as Spectre has said above), but I'd be reckoning with the dry winter and long range forecast it will be better ground at the festival.
And I know it's the Kim Muir and they're all plodders but he needs another few miles imo
He'll probably hack up now on good to firm

I didn't say he hasn't run to his best (i.e not trying), I said he may not always have been run on his merits, and I also conceded that he may also have been inconsistent. It's probably a bit of both (mainly inconsistency though)

Using individual race history for a horse with this profile and then determining a ground preference off the back of it, is not very rational. IMO.
The ground is inconsequential other than in relation to stamina IMO, especially so for this horse.
A slowly run Kim Muir would not be ideal, but the ground won't matter I reckon.

And also, with regards his past form - it's horse racing and you can't win them all, especially if you're a handicapper with G Elliott (who often has half a dozen in these type of races).
He'll not always have had the best jockey and luck either.

With regards the Kim Muir.
He'll probably get one of the best jockey's in the race, and he'll definitely need some luck.
And he may just be a better chaser than a hurdler. The progeny seem to be slanting that way.

Bet choice is an individual thing but I'd prefer that I've backed him at 22-1 NRNB after his Thyestes run, than choosing whether or not to back him at 7/2 on the day, after it's rained.
It'll be close to good to soft or worse anyway, on a fresh course.