Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Rider Handicap Chase

[Quevega]

I’ll be very surprised if the BHA handicapper allows an Irish beast to run in a Cheltenham handicap off a mark lower than its Irish.

Pretty sure similar happened last year with Escaria Ten.

Different circumstances.
144 is his UK mark (at the moment)

[Milbear0]

Yes he can…..and he will!

He is not though splinterboy, the GN weights tell you that. UK weights are being recalibrated to essentially match the Irish.

[Exar Essay]

I've seen a fair few shouts for School Boy Hours for this. I did fancy him earlier in the year, but Noel Meade said straight to the Nationals (Irish and GB by the sounds): https://www.planetsport.com/horse-ra...oy-hours?f=rss

Has there been anything more recent than this on targets etc? Appreciating you're all on NRNB.

[RoadToCheltenham]

I've seen a fair few shouts for School Boy Hours for this. I did fancy him earlier in the year, but Noel Meade said straight to the Nationals (Irish and GB by the sounds): https://www.planetsport.com/horse-ra...oy-hours?f=rss

Has there been anything more recent than this on targets etc? Appreciating you're all on NRNB.

Don't think anything has been said per se but 142 is right on the border - would've only got into 2 of the last 5 Nationals.

I guess the consensus is SBH was antepost fav for the Kim Muir last year but didn't go - now he is off a mark of 142 he can run in it if connections are unsure he will make the cut for Aintree.

BHA handicapper reckons the 143-145 mark will be bottom weight...

[Splinterboy82]

He is not though splinterboy, the GN weights tell you that. UK weights are being recalibrated to essentially match the Irish.

I totally agree that the UK capper is doing everything he can to realign the differences. The drops this season after a few ‘ok’ runs have been stand out….especially dropping horses many lbs when running over the wrong trips. However, when Elliott et al have been hcap fishing they’ve been taxed as per usual. May be a little less but 3-7lb more still seems the norm. I just don’t think you can use the National, a race where the capper has complete free reign to do what he likes ideally to attract the higher rated horses to run as a fair comparison. I’ll be staggered & very happy may I point out if the Irish horses such as Death Duty can run off their Irish marks.

So I stand by what I say until I see it with my own eyes with the festival ratings. He can put them up & he will put them up imo

[Exar Essay]

Don't think anything has been said per se but 142 is right on the border - would've only got into 2 of the last 5 Nationals.

I guess the consensus is SBH was antepost fav for the Kim Muir last year but didn't go - now he is off a mark of 142 he can run in it if connections are unsure he will make the cut for Aintree.

BHA handicapper reckons the 143-145 mark will be bottom weight...

Good points, thank you. Although the quote makes it sound as though the Irish GN would be the target if the British GN was a no go. And he'd have a good weight for that I'd guess. Should get in but in the lower third.

Tempted to cover given that he was probably my first handicap fancy of the year.

[Quevega]

Saxon has emailed the handicapper and the marks given for the National have been confirmed as UK marks, and what they would be allotted if entered in any handicap, subject to any collateral adjustments in the meantime of course. See his diary.

I'm not even sure any compression has taken place this year or that the new handicapper even wants to do this, it was Phil Smith that brought it in, and he definitely didn't do it for 140+ horses.
Aside from National specialists who usually got higher marks than their usual mark anyway, and the classy higher rated - to entice them to run. He left most on their normal marks anyway.

[Splinterboy82]

Saxon has emailed the handicapper and the marks given for the National have been confirmed as UK marks, and what they would be allotted if entered in any handicap, subject to any collateral adjustments in the meantime of course. See his diary.

I'm not even sure any compression has taken place this year or that the new handicapper even wants to do this, it was Phil Smith that brought it in, and he definitely didn't do it for 140+ horses.
Aside from National specialists who usually got higher marks than their usual mark anyway, and the classy higher rated - to entice them to run. He left most on their normal marks anyway.

Thanks Q, have just gone & read that back. Have to say I’m surprised to say the least that they considered the form he showed warranted a 1lb lower rise than the Irish capper. BUT, it makes both DD & SBH marks very very interesting in the context of this race. If they hcap the Irish this yr the same / closer to their Irish marks then I don’t think they calves enough off the UK ratings yet to not mean the Irish will still clean up in most hcaps personally. That’s a really good post from Saxon. Shame it takes somebody on here to email the capper for clarity. This is what the trade paper should be doing / explaining! Says a lot I guess

[Quevega]

Thanks Q, have just gone & read that back. Have to say I’m surprised to say the least that they considered the form he showed warranted a 1lb lower rise than the Irish capper. BUT, it makes both DD & SBH marks very very interesting in the context of this race. If they hcap the Irish this yr the same / closer to their Irish marks then I don’t think they calves enough off the UK ratings yet to not mean the Irish will still clean up in most hcaps personally. That’s a really good post from Saxon. Shame it takes somebody on here to email the capper for clarity. This is what the trade paper should be doing / explaining! Says a lot I guess

I think it shows IMO how lazy the UK handicapper can be.
I reckon he has had to rate this horse at the exact same time the Irish capper was, and did not have the Irish mark at hand to work from, so he came up one short of what the Irish rater did.
I think it's likely that, had it not been for the need to publish ratings for the National, and he'd waited for the Irish mark, he'd at least have been the same or little higher.
He could still do this of course, as they can do pretty much what they want if they have any sort of justifcation.
So NRNB is important.

[Splinterboy82]

He could still do this of course, as they can do pretty much what they want if they have any sort of justifcation.
So NRNB is important.

Thats my thinking exactly. Could come up with any old tosh about collateral form meaning he wants to reassess etc. Whilst it’s only a few wks away nothing would surprise me with these ratings. Whilst the capper & BHA would swear blind the trainer & race in question doesn’t come into it, I’m 100% sure it does when they give the ratings & tax to these Irish horses…

[Lobos]

We have Cheltenham and Aintree and he'll go to one or the other. He'll be in the Kim Muir and the Ultima at Cheltenham and the Grand National too. Gordon Elliott is pondering options for Death Duty after the Gigginstown-owned 11-year-old won for the first time since 2017

[KevMc]

Different circumstances.
144 is his UK mark (at the moment)

didn’t the handicapper state in an email he was 144 and then later changed that to 147?

[ToniC]

didn’t the handicapper state in an email he was 144 and then later changed that to 147?

I believe the specifics of what happened with Escaria ten is the GB handicapper handicapped him for the race wherever it was not taking into account the run on Sunday as is common practice for that operation (not common knowledge until after the event in this case ).

Somebody then got an email reply from the handicapper saying that yes, 144 is the mark and Escaria ten can run off that and be x amount of lbs ‘well in’ on his Irish rating (which had been subsequently re-assessed for the sunday race).

what the handicapper didn’t make clear, is that he was referring to the specific race he had an entry for that week, and he was subsequently re-assessed to take into account that run which put him out of the Kim Miur picture

[KevMc]

I believe the specifics of what happened with Escaria ten is the GB handicapper handicapped him for the race wherever it was not taking into account the run on Sunday as is common practice for that operation (not common knowledge until after the event in this case ).

Somebody then got an email reply from the handicapper saying that yes, 144 is the mark and Escaria ten can run off that and be x amount of lbs ‘well in’ on his Irish rating (which had been subsequently re-assessed for the sunday race).

what the handicapper didn’t make clear, is that he was referring to the specific race he had an entry for that week, and he was subsequently re-assessed to take into account that run which put him out of the Kim Miur picture

Similar enough I’d say. Can see a find and replace here with Escaria Ten & DD.

[Quevega]

Similar enough I’d say. Can see a find and replace here with Escaria Ten & DD.

Is there a member who's a tattoo artist ?