Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Rider Handicap Chase

[Saxon Warrior]

TO CLOSE BY NOON ON FEBRUARY 18th

CHELTENHAM
Thursday, March 13th

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders Handicap (Class 2)

TOTAL RACE VALUE GBP 75,000

Distributed in accordance with Stakes and Prize Money Code
GBP 44,475 to the winning horse
The second to receive GBP 13,965,
the third GBP 6,983,
the fourth GBP 3,488,
the fifth GBP 1,747,
the sixth GBP 878,
the seventh GBP 442 and
the eighth GBP 210

for five yrs old and upwards
(Weight Range 0-145)

THREE MILES TWO FURLONGS (3m 2f)

Enter by noon, February 18th and pay GBP 90 stake
Confirm by noon, March 7th and pay GBP 260
Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 11th

Weights published on February 23rd
Penalties, after February 23rd, 2025, a winner of a steeple chase 5lb
(No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb)


PLEASE NOTE: A novice horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of FOUR times in Steeple Chases in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code

Last 10 Years Winners

2024 Inothewayurthinkin 6-12-0 13/8F, Gavin Cromwell - Derek O'Connor. RPR 157

2023. Angels Dawn (MARE) 8-11-0 10/1, S. Curling - P A King. RPR 143

2022. Chambard 10-10-12 40/1, Venetia Williams - Lucy Turner (3) RPR 142

2021. Mount Ida 7-11-9 3/1F, Mrs Denise Foster - Jack Kennedy RPR 160

2020. Milan Native 7-11-1 9/1. Gordon Elliott - Mr R James (7) RPR 152

2019. Any Second Now. 7-11-11. 6/1. T M Walsh - Mr Derek O'Connor. RPR 154

2018. Missed Approach. 8-11-5. 8/1. Warren Greatrex - Mr N McParlan. RPR 149

2017. Domesday Book. 7-11-4. 40/1. Stuart Edmunds - Miss Gina Andrews. RPR 144

2016. Cause Of Causes. 8-11-9. 9/2. Gordon Elliott - Mr J J Codd. RPR 156

2015. The Package. 12-11-4. 9/1. David Pipe - Mr J J Codd. RPR 151

2014. Spring Heeled. 7-11-8. 12/1. J H Culloty - Robbie McNamara. RPR 151




2024 1st OR 145, 2nd OR 132, 3rd OR 131, 4th OR 135 (High OR 145, Low OR 127) 22 ran
2023 1st OR 131, 2nd OR 135, 3rd OR 145 4th OR 141 - High 145, Low OR 119. 23 ran
2022 1st OR 134, 2nd OR 137, 3rd OR 127 4th OR 144 - High 145, Low OR 130. 20 ran
2021 1st OR 142, 2nd OR 140, 3rd OR 140 4th OR 140 - High 142, Low OR 132. 21 ran
2020 1st OR 141, 2nd OR 138, 3rd OR 140 4th OR 140 - High 145, Low OR 135. 23 ran
2019 1st OR 143, 2nd OR 139, 3rd OR 142 4th OR 140 - High 144, Low OR 133. 23 ran
2018 1st OR 138, 2nd OR 143, 3rd OR 135 4th OR 143 - High 145, Low OR 119. 20 ran
2017 1st OR 137, 2nd OR 145, 3rd OR 137 4th OR 139 - High 145, Low OR 133. 24 ran
2016 1st OR 142, 2nd OR 138, 3rd OR 138 4th OR 144 - High 145, Low OR 134. 22 ran
2015 1st OR 137, 2nd OR 134, 3rd OR 140 4th OR 137 - High 145, Low OR 130. 24 ran
2014 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 140, 3rd OR 144 4th OR 136 - High 144, Low OR 131. 23 ran



This is now the only chase with rating restrictions, with maximum OR 145.

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…..2025 TREND ANALYSIS for reference;

1) HEAVY WEIGHTS Hold Key;
Unlike many of the other handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival, there is a positive trend for runners on heavier weights in the Kim Muir. That is reflected by the stats that eleven of the last 12 winners have carried 11st or more.

That trend continued last year when top-weight Inothewayurthinkin won at odds of 13/8 for the Gavin Cromwell team.

2) WINNING EXPERIENCE Counts for Little;
It seems strange to suggest, but bettors shouldn’t be looking for horses with recent winning experience when assessing the Kim Muir field.

Only one of the last 12 winners of the race had won on their most recent start before contesting the Festival race. However, all but one of the winners since 2013 had lined up within the last 76 days.

3) FAVOURITES have a poor record;
Despite the fact that Inothewayurthinkin was a well-backed winner of the Kim Muir in 2024, the race hasn’t been a good race since 2013 for runners at the top of the market.

Only two horses have been winning favourites in the last 12 editions, while only half of the victors over the same period had been found within the top three of the betting. Inothewayurthinkin was the first winning favourite of the race since 2021.

4) EXPERIENCE OVER A TRIP;
The Kim Muir is one of the most gruelling races run at the Cheltenham Festival, meaning it is little surprise that ten of the last 12 winners have had at least one attempt over three miles and two.

Over the same period, five of the victors had recorded at least one victory over the stamina-sapping trip. Therefore, proven stayers should be respected in the field this year.

5) RESPECT IMPROVERS;
Chambard was the oldest winner of the race when aged ten since 2016 for the Venetia Williams team in 2022.

Ten of the last 12 winners of the race have been aged between six and eight, while seven-year-old’s deserve a lot of respect after recording six wins since 2013. Inothewayurthinkin was the first six-year-old winner of the race since Black Baize in 1971.




Positives - Pre-2025 Festival

* 10 of the past 13 winners were rated between 137-143
* The past 6 winners were novices
* Gordon Elliott boasts a very strong recent record in the race
* 14 of the past 16 winners carried 11-4 (prior to jockey’s claims)
* 10 of the past 15 winners returned at single figure odds
* 9 of the past 12 winners were aged 7 or 8

* 9 of the past 14 winners had failed to win earlier in the season
* 8 of the past 14 winners wore headgear

* 8 of the past 15 winners recorded a top-3 finish last time out
* 5 of the past 6 winners had shown good form over shorter
* 4 of the past 13 winners were owned by JP McManus
* 4 of the past 9 winners wore a tongue-tie

* 3 of the past 11 winners were second-season novices
* Respect hold-up performers
* Respect novices dropping in class (from Graded company)
* Focus on those aged 9 and younger


Negatives - Pre-2025 Festival

* Only 1 of the past 16 winners carried less than 10-12 (prior to jockey’s claim)
* Inothewayurthinkin was the first 6yo winner since 1971
* Only 2 of the past 20 winners were older than 9
* Only 2 of the past 22 winners won last time out
* Patrick Mullins has yet to ride the winner

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Early entries in the Kim Muir at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival:

1. Ask Anything (IRE)
2. Aworkinprogress (IRE)
3. Back On The Lash
4. Busselton (FR)
5. Chambard (FR)
6. Cleatus Poolaw
7. Credo (IRE)
8. Daily Present (IRE)
9. Deeper Blue (FR)
10. Deise Aba (IRE)
11. Dom of Mary (FR)
12. Duffle Coat (IRE)
13. Escaria Ten (FR)
14. Excello (FR)
15. Fantastic Lady (FR)
16. Favori de Champdou (FR)
17. Flash Collonges (FR)
18. Fortescue
19. Frero Banbou (FR)
20. Galop de Chasse (FR)
21. Gelino Bello (FR)
22. Gericault Roque (FR)
23. Git Maker (FR)
24. Gold Clermont (FR)
25. Gringo d’Aubrelle (FR)
26. Grozni (FR)
27. Hasthing (FR)
28. Herakles Westwood (FR)
29. Hold That Taught
30. Hymac (IRE)
31. In d’Or (FR)
32. Iris Emery (FR)
33. Jasmin de Cotte (FR)
34. Johnnywho (IRE)
35. Jupiter Allen (FR)
36. Katate Dori (FR)
37. La Malmason (IRE)
38. Manothepeople (IRE)
39. Midnight Our Fred (IRE)
40. Mint Boy (IRE)
41. Mr Vango (IRE)
42. Music of Tara
43. Nine Graces
44. No Time To Wait (IRE)
45. Now Is The Hour (IRE)
46. Now Where Or When (IRE)
47. Pats Fancy (IRE)
48. Resplendent Grey (IRE)
49. Richmond Lake (IRE)
50. Sa Majeste (FR)
51. Sainte Dona (FR)
52. Search For Glory (IRE)
53. Shakem Up’arry (IRE)
54. Sine Nomine
55. Some Scope
56. Stuzzikini (IRE)
57. Torn And Frayed (FR)
58. Transmission (IRE)
59. Unanswered Prayers (IRE)
60. Undersupervision (IRE)
61. Walking On Air (IRE)
62. Westerninthepark (IRE)
63. Weveallbeencaught (IRE)
64. Where It All Began (IRE)
65. Whistle Stop Tour (IRE)
66. Will Do (IRE)
67. Wiseguy (IRE)
68. Yeah Man (IRE)
69. Zertakt (FR)

[Liammet]

The horse I fancy here is Braeside

Gordon is a creature of habit and he could go down the same route as Mount Ida for the same owners

Not seen him quoted anywhere as yet

[Goldentouch]

The horse I fancy here is Braeside

Gordon is a creature of habit and he could go down the same route as Mount Ida for the same owners

Not seen him quoted anywhere as yet

I also like this one but I think I saw that it’s Irish rating was 145, so factoring in the UK handicap tax I think it will be too high to race here.

[charlie]

Plan Of Attack only bet so far @ 22/1. Convinced he would have won or gone very close in 2021 if not for tipping up. Tons of Cheltenham experience, inc trips over for the XC which haven’t quite worked out. Down to a mark of 134 which will no doubt take a small hike, but I think he’s a big player

[Liammet]

I also like this one but I think I saw that it’s Irish rating was 145, so factoring in the UK handicap tax I think it will be too high to race here.

Yeah,doesn’t look like the English capper would be letting it happen

[Eggs]

….I think it was Lobos who along with me was keeping an eye on entries/runs of Se Mo Laoch.

Just noticed he ran in an Irish PtP on 30th Dec finishing 3rd to Mighty Stowaway. He changed trainer ahead of that run but appears to have immediately reverted back to Brian McMahon.

[Lobos]

….I think it was Lobos who along with me was keeping an eye on entries/runs of Se Mo Laoch.

Just noticed he ran in an Irish PtP on 30th Dec finishing 3rd to Mighty Stowaway. He changed trainer ahead of that run but appears to have immediately reverted back to Brian McMahon.

Very, very interesting. Protecting his hcp mark possibly?? Dirty barstewards. If he's entered for the 4th time I'm going in large !

[Ray]

Anyone fancy glenloe to finally come here??

[Liammet]

Anyone fancy glenloe to finally come here??

If ever there was a NRNB it is for him

[Faugheen_Machine]

Anyone fancy glenloe to finally come here??

I quite like another in Green and Gold for this, although not sure that narrows it down much

[The Fellow]

Birchdale ?

[Spectre]

I quite like another in Green and Gold for this, although not sure that narrows it down much

Me too. And if we're thinking about the same one it'll be so obvious in retrospect. The one I'm thinking of isn't quoted though if we are on the same page.

[Birds Nest]

Always keep my eye on Gordons previous martin pipe runners for this. Frontal assault got hampered a couple of times in it last year and was still staying on ok. Already had 2 runs this season, just waiting on another entry for him.

[Attaglance]

Me too. And if we're thinking about the same one it'll be so obvious in retrospect. The one I'm thinking of isn't quoted though if we are on the same page.

Me 3… If on same page was well touted last year and didn’t show up. If 25/1 popped up I would grab it…

[Odin]

Ooooh I might also know - this intrigue is fun