General Chat

[Istabraq]

Did Daryl Jacob not retire yesterday ?

I see he’s jocked up in the first at Taunton today

Yeah, announced it Saturday, retired after his book of rides yesterday...

[Liammet]

Yeah, announced it Saturday, retired after his book of rides yesterday...

Just seen the jockey change to James Bowen ,thanks

[Rooster Booster]

I am wondering just a little bit that we have become a little complacent or even entitled on here. Those of us that have been doing this for decades now remember how difficult this used to be. Lately it has become much easier it seems. Find Willies best novices, get on his best senior horses early, sprinkle in a few of Henry’s or Gordon’s or Nicky’s best ones and a couple of Dan’s in handicaps and form an orderly queue. I notice that many of us seem to think it is inevitable Willie will dominate the festival again and rather than taking stock and stepping back and asking ourselves ‘what is my plan b’ if that doesn’t happen, we are in fact barrelling forwards and doubling down by snaffling up these lovely big prices on horses we are convincing ourselves will come good again when it matters. It feels like we are almost celebrating this ‘value’ as if it were concrete and undeniable.

Are we prepared just in case he isn’t firing in March. Do we think what happened to Hendo last season couldn’t possibly happen to Willie. Do we have a contingency for this or are we doubling down and just assuming things will be fine?

is anybody on here genuinely worried that their book looks too Willie centric and starting to get a little worried or is everyone just treating it as an opportunity to take advantage of unexpected value as if it were a gift from the racing gods?

This is not aimed at any one person, this is more a general observation from someone who has seen these things ebb and flow for decades now.

Interested in folks thoughts

[opatcho]

Good post Rooster! Valid points and a reminder that things can change quickly
Wasnt too long ago when Willie had a fairly poor DRF, believe the ground was to blame that year, which blew a antepost bets out of the window

A few points below, things I question myself

1) Willie will have the best novice hurdlers. Feels like a lot of effort is being exhausted trying, waiting, searching for Willies hot pots for the Supreme, Novice Turners and AB, when actually he normally only wins 1 of these races despite dominating discussions and antepost betting
2) Willie is difficult to beat on soft/heavy ground, if it comes up quick, I think I would be swiftly looking a Henderson and even Joseph O'Brien who has had a amazing few days on decent ground. Despite this, I think he's been push aside fairly quickly and nearly forgotten about. I havent looked at what juveniles or novices Joseph O'Brien has (I need to now!) but, along with his senior horses, I will ensure I consider his runners especially if the going is better than good to soft
3) There could be some value in the DRF, again and I've done this myself, I've automatically said "Willie will hose up at the DRF" and I'm sure the wider community, podcasts, pundits, will drift towards this statement. This opens up value elsewhere.

Nice reminder RB that racing isn't straight forward. It can change and to ensure unexpected value is taken when opportunity rises and to have a plan b.

Just imaging a festival where Willie turns up and... struggles...

[Odin]

is anybody on here genuinely worried that their book looks too Willie centric and starting to get a little worried or is everyone just treating it as an opportunity to take advantage of unexpected value as if it were a gift from the racing gods?

I had this exact thought last night. I haven't got around to checking in on my books and the potential impact, but I will be going through them over the next couple of days. The lingering question I've got is just how much he wasn't firing, how much his horses needed the run and how much it was just the hype horses not performing?

[darlojim]

If anyone has given it much thought, what are your views on Workahead and Koktail Divin? Both owned by Barry Maloney who has a bit of a reputation for a stayer. Workahead has shown speed over 2 miles though in a Supreme year where nothing has leapt off the page (yet) 1 more chance of that. They both look good enough to be festival horses but if you twisted my arm i would say Koktail Divin will end up in the Bartlett but can't make my mind up where Workahead would rock up. The Turners looks pretty fierce at this stage. I am in a muddle.

Big big fan of Koktail Divin myself, and thought he ran a very encouraging race yesterday staying on well all the way to the line. His latest flat run in France certainly showed a mix of speed and stamina, with his best work certainly at the finish. Looking forward, I'd wonder whether Henry would dip him straight into the DRF 2m6 or whether they'll look for a maiden/g3 with him first as it's a little tight for room to get 2 in now with him depending on how high they want to aim.

If they do see him as a 3 miler this season, I wonder if they could aim for a maiden in around 3 weeks time, and then go on to that Clonmel 3m g3 race mid Feb (the same race HVL and Montys went to - although that didnt go well with their festival chance for whatever reason)

I'd be on the fence as to what trip he needs this year, and have him in at big prices on BFX for both the bally/bartlett (cue JackieMoon33 to tell me off), maybe just a waiting game as to see his next entry, that'll tell us abit more.

[Rooster Booster]

Good post Rooster! Valid points and a reminder that things can change quickly
Wasnt too long ago when Willie had a fairly poor DRF, believe the ground was to blame that year, which blew a antepost bets out of the window

A few points below, things I question myself

1) Willie will have the best novice hurdlers. Feels like a lot of effort is being exhausted trying, waiting, searching for Willies hot pots for the Supreme, Novice Turners and AB, when actually he normally only wins 1 of these races despite dominating discussions and antepost betting
2) Willie is difficult to beat on soft/heavy ground, if it comes up quick, I think I would be swiftly looking a Henderson and even Joseph O'Brien who has had a amazing few days on decent ground. Despite this, I think he's been push aside fairly quickly and nearly forgotten about. I havent looked at what juveniles or novices Joseph O'Brien has (I need to now!) but, along with his senior horses, I will ensure I consider his runners especially if the going is better than good to soft
3) There could be some value in the DRF, again and I've done this myself, I've automatically said "Willie will hose up at the DRF" and I'm sure the wider community, podcasts, pundits, will drift towards this statement. This opens up value elsewhere.

Nice reminder RB that racing isn't straight forward. It can change and to ensure unexpected value is taken when opportunity rises and to have a plan b.

Just imaging a festival where Willie turns up and... struggles...

You make some interesting and valid points. I suspect if we were to consolidate everyone’s contingency into some sort of overarching strategy we’d be invincible on here

[Quevega]

I think Willie made some really basic errors over Christmas and some of his horses may have ran below par for whatever reason, but it's not conclusive by any means.
Most were novices so no guarantees anyhow, and his older horses probably ran ok overall with excuses for some.

Sending your stable jockey to the UK for 2 of the busiest days on the calendar for 2 rides and to win the King George for another yard was fucking stupid, especially as one of the rides was a novice chaser that would have been absolutely fine at Limerick on that ground even if training for the arkle. It did Gaelic no harm last year.

Ir appears that Willie, with all his skills and attributes can be a mardy arse and lose some logic when decision making when the powers that be take away a couple of races he's farmed/targeted over the years.

Then in the Savilles, after getting a gift of a grade one in the Hattons Grace he and his jockey failed to see what everyone had picked up on that KoK was gonna rock and roll and give Gordons mare a lead. I assume they expected this though and Townend simply misjudged the pace and Walsh was no team player as he never thought for a minute to try and drag State Man into the race with his horse. It was a fucking shambles from that team.

I would though - still subscribe to the follow Willie strategy overall, however, 2 races have turned to handicaps this year and the UK are better prepared to attack those more than ever.
So a softer approach is probably advisable, but for me personally I always sprinkle other trainers horses into my teams for each race, as it's the fucking horses ability that matters more than anything else, unless it's trained by a an idiot (not mentioning any names)

[archie]

6 winners from 74 runners (8.1%) for Willie Mullins over Christmas, compared to 16/71 last year. No winners bigger than 7/2 and 17 beaten at 7/2 or much shorter (5 Evens or odds on). A very rare dip for the yard. Had 40/93 in January 2024 and 34/85 in Jan 2023. (From twitter)

It would appear to be a slight blip but the 74 runners were actually in only 33 races so it's actually an 18% success rate in contested races. When you have 5 runners in a race, eg the Savills, you are immediately down to a 20% win rate for that race.

Having said all that, they have said publicly that some have run flat. I'd be quite interested in whether these horses are stabled in the same area of the yard or whether they are spread all round the barns.

[Rooster Booster]

I think Willie made some really basic errors over Christmas and some of his horses may have ran below par for whatever reason, but it's not conclusive by any means.
Most were novices so no guarantees anyhow, and his older horses probably ran ok overall with excuses for some.

Sending your stable jockey to the UK for 2 of the busiest days on the calendar for 2 rides and to win the King George for another yard was fucking stupid, especially as one of the rides was a novice chaser that would have been absolutely fine at Limerick on that ground even if training for the arkle. It did Gaelic no harm last year.

Ir appears that Willie, with all his skills and attributes can be a mardy arse and lose some logic when decision making when the powers that be take away a couple of races he's farmed/targeted over the years.

Then in the Savilles, after getting a gift of a grade one in the Hattons Grace he and his jockey failed to see what everyone had picked up on that KoK was gonna rock and roll and give Gordons mare a lead. I assume they expected this though and Townend simply misjudged the pace and Walsh was no team player as he never thought for a minute to try and drag State Man into the race with his horse. It was a fucking shambles from that team.

I would though - still subscribe to the follow Willie strategy overall, however, 2 races have turned to handicaps this year and the UK are better prepared to attack those more than ever.
So a softer approach is probably advisable, but for me personally I always sprinkle other trainers horses into my teams for each race, as it's the fucking horses ability that matters more than anything else, unless it's trained by a an idiot (not mentioning any names)

It was a hell of a ride though wasn’t it…..or was it lucky ….or somewhere in between? The King George I mean

[Quevega]

It was a hell of a ride though wasn’t it…..or was it lucky ….or somewhere in between? The King George I mean

It was a good ride, and in some ways it may have affected his ride on State Man.
Definitely somewhere in between as a better jump at the last and a little more petrol and the French horse had them mugged right off.

[JackieMoon33]

darlojim I’m not sure on Koktail Divin trip either, but I’d have personally wanted him to go passed Kaid if he was a Turners horse. He was doing his best at the end so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s an AB horse. I’m still standing by my view those Masked Marvels will likely be stayers too.

[Irish Rugby]

It would appear to be a slight blip but the 74 runners were actually in only 33 races so it's actually an 18% success rate in contested races. When you have 5 runners in a race, eg the Savills, you are immediately down to a 20% win rate for that race.

Having said all that, they have said publicly that some have run flat. I'd be quite interested in whether these horses are stabled in the same area of the yard or whether they are spread all round the barns.

That's a good point. Factor in a host of different owners who are all showing up over the 4 days and all wanting to see their horse run. Must be a nightmare for really big yards.

[Runragged]

I am wondering just a little bit that we have become a little complacent or even entitled on here. Those of us that have been doing this for decades now remember how difficult this used to be. Lately it has become much easier it seems. Find Willies best novices, get on his best senior horses early, sprinkle in a few of Henry’s or Gordon’s or Nicky’s best ones and a couple of Dan’s in handicaps and form an orderly queue. I notice that many of us seem to think it is inevitable Willie will dominate the festival again and rather than taking stock and stepping back and asking ourselves ‘what is my plan b’ if that doesn’t happen, we are in fact barrelling forwards and doubling down by snaffling up these lovely big prices on horses we are convincing ourselves will come good again when it matters. It feels like we are almost celebrating this ‘value’ as if it were concrete and undeniable.

Are we prepared just in case he isn’t firing in March. Do we think what happened to Hendo last season couldn’t possibly happen to Willie. Do we have a contingency for this or are we doubling down and just assuming things will be fine?

is anybody on here genuinely worried that their book looks too Willie centric and starting to get a little worried or is everyone just treating it as an opportunity to take advantage of unexpected value as if it were a gift from the racing gods?

This is not aimed at any one person, this is more a general observation from someone who has seen these things ebb and flow for decades now.

Interested in folks thoughts

Great post as been thinking exactly the same myself. We assume what has happened previously will happen again. We are seeing that with the Mullins French horses in the Triumph, chasing every new one as the next possible good thing. Maybe the French crop for this year just aren't very good? However, we keep moving on to the next one until that then gets beat.

We are happy to say the 2m - 2m 4f novice hurdlers weren't of a high standard last year, nor the crop of bumpers from last year either, yet we are still chasing every new Mullins maiden that comes out. Sometimes the obvious could be hitting us in the face but because it comes from elsewhere we ignore it. Take the Supreme. Romeo Coolio is a best price 10/1 having been 2nd in a g2 run not to suit and then winning a g1 by 9 lengths. Kaid D'Authie wins a maiden at the 3rd attempt and you can just about get 14/1 on him with most going 10/1 and 12/1. There is no guarantee which race he will go but because he has the 'sexier' profile of being Mullins/McManus and 'hyped up' to some extent then he is only marginally a bigger price than a proven G1 winner. I think there is a certain amount of FOMO with regards it all, but sometimes we just have to say, they may have spent the most money but maybe they don't have the best novices this year? Or maybe it is just down to their preparation this year with the faster ground, meaning his horses haven't been able to work as hard as previously, which could still leave them short of work and experience come Cheltenham anyway?

Like you say, do we all just assume it comes good, that one of Mullins novices will prove to be a superstar? When the reality may just be that he doesn't have an exceptional one this year? I doubt there has been many years past where the shortest priced Mullins horse at this stage ante post for the novice/juvenile races has been 8/1 (Jasmin De Vaux Turners).

Some food for thought anyway.

[Rooster Booster]

Great post as been thinking exactly the same myself. We assume what has happened previously will happen again. We are seeing that with the Mullins French horses in the Triumph, chasing every new one as the next possible good thing. Maybe the French crop for this year just aren't very good? However, we keep moving on to the next one until that then gets beat.

We are happy to say the 2m - 2m 4f novice hurdlers weren't of a high standard last year, nor the crop of bumpers from last year either, yet we are still chasing every new Mullins maiden that comes out. Sometimes the obvious could be hitting us in the face but because it comes from elsewhere we ignore it. Take the Supreme. Romeo Coolio is a best price 10/1 having been 2nd in a g2 run not to suit and then winning a g1 by 9 lengths. Kaid D'Authie wins a maiden at the 3rd attempt and you can just about get 14/1 on him with most going 10/1 and 12/1. There is no guarantee which race he will go but because he has the 'sexier' profile of being Mullins/McManus and 'hyped up' to some extent then he is only marginally a bigger price than a proven G1 winner. I think there is a certain amount of FOMO with regards it all, but sometimes we just have to say, they may have spent the most money but maybe they don't have the best novices this year? Or maybe it is just down to their preparation this year with the faster ground, meaning his horses haven't been able to work as hard as previously, which could still leave them short of work and experience come Cheltenham anyway?

Like you say, do we all just assume it comes good, that one of Mullins novices will prove to be a superstar? When the reality may just be that he doesn't have an exceptional one this year? I doubt there has been many years past where the shortest priced Mullins horse at this stage ante post for the novice/juvenile races has been 8/1 (Jasmin De Vaux Turners).

Some food for thought anyway.

Can you imagine if none of the novice hurdle winners begin with a K. Probably amount to the GDP of a small nation down the drain …not a pop at all btw as I’ve made my own contributions to the special k club.