General Chat

[Eggs]

….brothers dead-heating must surely be a first at Cheltenham in that juvenile hurdle.

[BuckingThe Trend]

Right lads and lassies. I am in need of guidance. Am on the cusp of a Cashout purge to recover some funds to reinvest in better options. Horses I am thinking I will Cashout are :

1. Sounds Victorius @ 25/1 in Albert Bartlett for a 40% Stake loss
2. Slade Steel @ 14/1 in BANC for a 60% Stake loss
3. High Class Hero @ 20/1 in BANC for 40% Stake loss
4. Gale Mahler @ 20/1 in MNH for 60% Stake loss

If I cash in all 4 that would leave me with the funds to pace two new full unit bets. I am very tempted. Anyone got a strong view on why I should keep any of the bets. Help. Thanks.

[darlojim]

Right lads and lassies. I am in need of guidance. Am on the cusp of a Cashout purge to recover some funds to reinvest in better options. Horses I am thinking I will Cashout are :

1. Sounds Victorius @ 25/1 in Albert Bartlett for a 40% Stake loss
2. Slade Steel @ 14/1 in BANC for a 60% Stake loss
3. High Class Hero @ 20/1 in BANC for 40% Stake loss
4. Gale Mahler @ 20/1 in MNH for 60% Stake loss

If I cash in all 4 that would leave me with the funds to pace two new full unit bets. I am very tempted. Anyone got a strong view on why I should keep any of the bets. Help. Thanks.

If I was you I'd be cashing Slade steel and Gale Mahler. I'm surprised GM you can get any return back as shes gone to 66s, so any return is a good return for me.

I'd give sounds victorious the benefit of the doubt being out early for Willie on likely unfavoured ground. SS again you can back at much bigger odds so would give you time to re-assess.

High class hero I cant remember what the tours said tbh, but he hasnt been seen yet so a loss on that seems harsh unless hes for sure staying hurdling.

[BuckingThe Trend]

If I was you I'd be cashing Slade steel and Gale Mahler. I'm surprised GM you can get any return back as shes gone to 66s, so any return is a good return for me.

I'd give sounds victorious the benefit of the doubt being out early for Willie on likely unfavoured ground. SS again you can back at much bigger odds so would give you time to re-assess.

High class hero I cant remember what the tours said tbh, but he hasnt been seen yet so a loss on that seems harsh unless hes for sure staying hurdling.

Thanks for taking the time to reply. I agree 100%. Both Slade Steel and Gale Mahler look like lost causes. Both Cashed Out. Going to let SV and HCH roll and see what comes. Although I am concerned HCH will be an 8yo and they have a poor record in the BANC/RSA. Will sleep on it. Now I need to work out where I re-invest my funds. Thanks again. Much appreciated.

[Odin]

Thanks for taking the time to reply. I agree 100%. Both Slade Steel and Gale Mahler look like lost causes. Both Cashed Out. Going to let SV and HCH roll and see what comes. Although I am concerned HCH will be an 8yo and they have a poor record in the BANC/RSA. Will sleep on it. Now I need to work out where I re-invest my funds. Thanks again. Much appreciated.

Id keep HCH until entries for the Xmas period, which will happen by the end of the week I think - then reassess. If he doesn't get an entry, I'll be (trying to) cash him out myself

[Lobos]

Id keep HCH until entries for the Xmas period, which will happen by the end of the week I think - then reassess. If he doesn't get an entry, I'll be (trying to) cash him out myself

.........still hoping HCH is the 'one' to be kept back hurdling for the Stayers.

[BuckingThe Trend]

Id keep HCH until entries for the Xmas period, which will happen by the end of the week I think - then reassess. If he doesn't get an entry, I'll be (trying to) cash him out myself

That is an excellent plan. Much appreciated. Thanks for highlighting the option. I'm on the same journey.

[Zachx02]

Hi everyone, as part of my final year at university, I am conducting a dissertation on creating my own AI model to try and predict outcomes in horse racing to essentially try and beat the bookies and get good value bets and win over the long term.

With that, I have created a google survey where if possible can some FJs fill it out (wont take more than a few minutes) on what they use when studying the form book when trying to choose what horse to bet in a race to give me a good idea what metrics will be of most use when creating the model.

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSciHQftxtCxA_J7BgTR3TDRT0P2FGZxneTrjCOFMx3j 3TYZ0Q/viewform is the link, I would be upmost grateful to anyone who fills it out. Cheers

Hi everyone, just an update on this.

Thanks to everyone who filled it out, I have developed my first AI model, with a lot of help from the data submitted by FJs which I utmost appreciate and it has been a great success, with over the course of around 2000 races, betting 1 pt the model returns around +1200 pts. Will be more than happy to share more when I have submitted it in a few months time but as a few people asked for some updates as time went on, I thought I'd give one as without the help of FJs filling out the survey this wouldn't have been possible

[Ice]

Hi everyone, just an update on this.

Thanks to everyone who filled it out, I have developed my first AI model, with a lot of help from the data submitted by FJs which I utmost appreciate and it has been a great success, with over the course of around 2000 races, betting 1 pt the model returns around +1200 pts. Will be more than happy to share more when I have submitted it in a few months time but as a few people asked for some updates as time went on, I thought I'd give one as without the help of FJs filling out the survey this wouldn't have been possible

That's superb mate, great work.

[On The Fringe]

Inthepocket (Arkle) boosted to 10/1 and Langer Dan (Stayers) boosted to 50/1 on 365 ahead of Upping The Ante today. Both top industry prices.

[Black Dog]

Inthepocket (Arkle) boosted to 10/1 and Langer Dan (Stayers) boosted to 50/1 on 365 ahead of Upping The Ante today. Both top industry prices.

Cheers,used the Langer Dan one.

[Craigy14]

Inthepocket (Arkle) boosted to 10/1 and Langer Dan (Stayers) boosted to 50/1 on 365 ahead of Upping The Ante today. Both top industry prices.

Aye EE said the other day, 365 were cheeky and cut the 10/1 last week to 8/1 probably knowing what was going to put up this week, so they’ve just boosted him to what price he actually was. Wankers!

[Captain Chris]

Hi everyone, just an update on this.

Thanks to everyone who filled it out, I have developed my first AI model, with a lot of help from the data submitted by FJs which I utmost appreciate and it has been a great success, with over the course of around 2000 races, betting 1 pt the model returns around +1200 pts. Will be more than happy to share more when I have submitted it in a few months time but as a few people asked for some updates as time went on, I thought I'd give one as without the help of FJs filling out the survey this wouldn't have been possible

That's some effort! I assume the racing post smart card and atr predictor are similar tools? Do you know what they use to come up with a "winner"? Are your results across flat and jumps? Does it seem to perform better for one over the other? Looking forward to hearing more as and when you're ready

[Zachx02]

That's some effort! I assume the racing post smart card and atr predictor are similar tools? Do you know what they use to come up with a "winner"? Are your results across flat and jumps? Does it seem to perform better for one over the other? Looking forward to hearing more as and when you're ready

Not sure for them, at the moment I've only tested using the jumps data over the last 20 years, currently it operates at around a 30% strike rate which provided with the fact that it doesn't always pick favourites allows it to generate a profit. Had winners as big as 66/1 and when I look at the form myself for those horses, I could never have picked them.

The plan is to test with flat racing data soon, same with being able to scrap a racecard directly from the racing post website and have it predict future races using the same parameters which are being fed in for training the model on all of the historical data it is being trained on

[BuckingThe Trend]

Id keep HCH until entries for the Xmas period, which will happen by the end of the week I think - then reassess. If he doesn't get an entry, I'll be (trying to) cash him out myself

FYI. High Class Hero entered in the 3m G1 Racing Post Long Distance Novice S'chase at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. We live in hope !