General Chat

[DenmanSacre]

Navan a more likely option in mid December? Tends to be the one he uses for winners of today’s race.

Yeah I think he'll end up there but no guarantee he'll be made to race like he would at Leopardstown over Xmas.

[JackieMoon33]

I wonder if that’s why Koktail Brut was meant to run today?

I reckon that was the plan as he’d be more of a galloper.

[robith]

Enjoyed a recent email interaction with William Hill.

They sent me an email saying "We've put £5 cash in your account"

I thought "that's weird"

Opened it and it was just a load of slots offers.

About 3 hours later they sent another one "That was a mistake, ignore it"

Times have changed man. Toss me at least a £1 free bet for your errors and my mental distress eh lads

[somer1]

Enjoyed a recent email interaction with William Hill.

They sent me an email saying "We've put £5 cash in your account"

I thought "that's weird"

Opened it and it was just a load of slots offers.

About 3 hours later they sent another one "That was a mistake, ignore it"

Times have changed man. Toss me at least a £1 free bet for your errors and my mental distress eh lads

Had the same email. Thought strange you lot give me sweet FA. Then got the next email pmsl.

[Exar Essay]

Some interesting RPR's from Down Royal Day 1.

• BDA - 155: That would have been sufficient to win 7 of the last 10 editions of the Mares Hurdle ... in November. Just 1lb shy of the RPR awarded to Lossie for winning last years running.
• The Yellow Clay - 116: The worst RPR awarded to a winner of this race in the last 10 editions. Worse even than Zefiro Dodville who picked up the pieces last year when Better Days Ahead fell. 20 - 30lbs inferior to Gordon's graded level horses who have run here previously.
• Firefox - 126: 9th of the previous 10. Again, significantly lower than Gordon's previous top drawer horses who have run here. 18lb lower than Found A Fifty when winning last years event. 21lb lower than Mighty Potter and Envoi Allen posted when winning this race. Lower even than his Bumper run on this day last year.

[Odin]

Some interesting RPR's from Down Royal Day 1.

• BDA - 155: That would have been sufficient to win 7 of the last 10 editions of the Mares Hurdle ... in November. Just 1lb shy of the RPR awarded to Lossie for winning last years running.
• The Yellow Clay - 116: The worst RPR awarded to a winner of this race in the last 10 editions. Worse even than Zefiro Dodville who picked up the pieces last year when Better Days Ahead fell. 20 - 30lbs inferior to Gordon's graded level horses who have run here previously.
• Firefox - 126: 9th of the previous 10. Again, significantly lower than Gordon's previous top drawer horses who have run here. 18lb lower than Found A Fifty when winning last years event. 21lb lower than Mighty Potter and Envoi Allen posted when winning this race.

Really strange one this because they started down valuing the Down Royal races last year (Down Memory Lane was really low off memory), but then they've got King of Kingsfield running a PB and Daddy Long Legs running to a better figure than when winning a Punchestown handicap by 5l. Surely that BDA value is too high?

And thus begins my annual scepticism regarding RPRs which eventually proves to be wrong when The Giant Bolster and Saxon Warrior trends come through with flying colours again

[Exar Essay]

Really strange one this because they started down valuing the Down Royal races last year (Down Memory Lane was really low off memory), but then they've got King of Kingsfield running a PB and Daddy Long Legs running to a better figure than when winning a Punchestown handicap by 5l. Surely that BDA value is too high?

And thus begins my annual scepticism regarding RPRs which eventually proves to be wrong when The Giant Bolster and Saxon Warrior trends come through with flying colours again

I don't bet on the basis of an RPR, but it's a really useful second opinion that I use to inform decision making. It indicates the level of performance and I think you have to consider the manner in which that performance was delivered. DML wasn't extended at all last year in scoring an RPR of 113. The Yellow Clay was asked for a moderate effort this year (I thought anyway).

Also in respect of the DML race, of the horses in behind, only Bruccio really progressed - the others didn't progress much beyond the RPR awarded in that race. Furthermore, DML disappointed at Christmas. I don't thin 113 was too unfair a score.

You've also got the direct comparison from the same race last year where an average horse (who should've finished second had BDA stood up) scored 120.

It all adds to my thoughts anyway.

[Odin]

I don't bet on the basis of an RPR, but it's a really useful second opinion that I use to inform decision making. It indicates the level of performance and I think you have to consider the manner in which that performance was delivered. DML wasn't extended at all last year in scoring an RPR of 113. The Yellow Clay was asked for a moderate effort this year (I thought anyway).

Also in respect of the DML race, of the horses in behind, only Bruccio really progressed - the others didn't progress much beyond the RPR awarded in that race. Furthermore, DML disappointed at Christmas. I don't thin 113 was too unfair a score.

You've also got the direct comparison from the same race last year where an average horse (who should've finished second had BDA stood up) scored 120.

It all adds to my thoughts anyway.

Yeah, sorry - I actually don't mind the novice ones. You can only rate them on the performance they give at the time which is based on the opposition they come up against and what they actually have to do to win.

The Brighterdaysahead one I have more concerns about simply because I don't trust the two horses in behind but that's an argument anyone can agree with or disagree with based on actual form at least

And as you say, it's just an addition to the thoughts and vibes we have anyway so maybe I'm making too big a deal out of it - I just remember having sceptical conversations with several people about over rating rather than under rating some performances - Brighterdaysahead just struck me as another example of that which will be downgraded in 3 months.

[DenmanSacre]

Don't they sometimes change the Irish marks the day after. I think I saw them do that last year. Firefox is too low but as a fan of Mossy Fen Park for a handicap, I wouldn't mind if the handicapped thought his mark was low. Brighterdaysahead - her mark is slightly high but I'd have had it around 150-152 so 155 isn't too bad.

[Exar Essay]

Yeah, sorry - I actually don't mind the novice ones. You can only rate them on the performance they give at the time which is based on the opposition they come up against and what they actually have to do to win.

The Brighterdaysahead one I have more concerns about simply because I don't trust the two horses in behind but that's an argument anyone can agree with or disagree with based on actual form at least

And as you say, it's just an addition to the thoughts and vibes we have anyway so maybe I'm making too big a deal out of it - I just remember having sceptical conversations with several people about over rating rather than under rating some performances - Brighterdaysahead just struck me as another example of that which will be downgraded in 3 months.

I'd have no faith in DLL as a yardstick. But I think KOK is turning into a reliable performer on anything yielding or better. On a sounder surface at Down Royal, I felt he ran his race and to at least his best novice RPR. I'd provisionally marked it as a 140 and off that had BDA at around 152. I could certainly see them downgrading her performance a few pounds, but even at say 150, that's a lovely opening effort for a Mares Hurdle tilt.

I also think it interesting that over the two days, every race was run slower than standard. Except for the Bottlegreen Hurdle.

[ComplyOrDie]

Think Quevega said he had Brighterdaysahead running to around 150, which by the looks of it, many agree on.

Hard to judge the horses in behind, KOK, done his usual, travelling well but not good enough, and DLL is just a headcase. She done all she could, at the end of the day.

Unfortunately, unless The Yellow Clay was going to win by 30 lengths, it was always going to be a low RPR. The horses in behind him were are bang average (that's being kind, I feel). His main challenger failed to offer up anything. The Yellow Clay only won by 9 lengths, and I don't believe the time was all that, so can understand this one.

I had Firefox higher than what he was given though. I had him mid to low 130's. I felt Mossy Fen Park was a worthy adversary, place in a G2, over the trip over hurdles, he's solid enough, and Firefox beat him with enough in hand, IMO.

[Yosser]

Bloody strange ride by Buick on Vauban, Midfield, then shuffled to the rear and then tried to get back into it on the bend. Never had a chance. A few roll ups down but i have covered a good few this weekend so can't complain too much. Still trying to get IEP (Arkle), El Fabiolo (Ryanair) and Teahupoo rolled up then my book is more or less done. Eyes peeled for the next opportunity.

When i say done, there is one horse i keep scratching my chin over. Slade Steel in the BANC. Lobos makes a compelling case. Any road to avoid Ballyburn leads here if he runs at Cheltenham. Not like HDB to fast track one up to 3 miles though. It's a poser.

[RoadToCheltenham]

Betfair & KG entries starting to come in - close at 12.

Willie currently has nothing in the BF but Emmet has chucked Corbetts in.

[darlojim]

Betfair & KG entries starting to come in - close at 12.

Willie currently has nothing in the BF but Emmet has chucked Corbetts in.

Corbetts in both or the Betfair?

[ComplyOrDie]

Might be time to chuck RPR's in the bin

Romeo Coolio given 110, when Prairie Angel in the first race, carrying 15lbs less, and an ever so slightly slower time, gets 111, having been ridden to win. Romeo done his on the snaff. I assume this will be revised.

That's not even close to what I thought he might get.

Makes even less sense when you compare his Top Speed (TS) figure in comparison to previous winners of the race.