General Chat

[Spectre]

No it's not guaranteed that the Turners remains the same. Nor the conditions for any other race for that matter. They won't need to confirm until before the programme for the main season is published. It's unlikely that any significant changes will be made though the closer we get to the season proper. I'd say if anything changes we'll know in the next 8 weeks.

If any races are going to change this season I suspect it'll be the National Hunt Chase and the Cross Country. And any other changes will be planned for the season after.

If the conditions are fundamentally altered the bookies I think are obliged to return stakes.

[Black Dog]

Ok keep calm and carry on then

[Lobos]

Do you think Slade Steel will step up in trip? I personally think it wouldn't do any harm but HDB likes the slowly slowly approach. He does however, still have Inthepocket but now at 7 years old i do wonder if JP would want him going into open company.

I cant forget what Rachel said immediately after he won the Supreme..........she clearly views him as a future Gold Cup horse so I wouldn't discount the BANC in a hurry. HDB has had some very decent horses run in that race in recent years so he does have a liking for it.

[Yosser]

I cant forget what Rachel said immediately after he won the Supreme..........she clearly views him as a future Gold Cup horse so I wouldn't discount the BANC in a hurry. HDB has had some very decent horses run in that race in recent years so he does have a liking for it.

Very true Lobos regarding some of the horses he has sent to the BANC. I hadn't considered him for the race and have him covered for the Arkle. I will keep that in mind though for stable tour season. I have a few covered for the BANC but the one i really want to go there is Majborough. He is my biggest winner and can't think of anything else for JP in that division.

[Lobos]

Very true Lobos regarding some of the horses he has sent to the BANC. I hadn't considered him for the race and have him covered for the Arkle. I will keep that in mind though for stable tour season. I have a few covered for the BANC but the one i really want to go there is Majborough. He is my biggest winner and can't think of anything else for JP in that division.

SS is currently 33's for the BANC so small stakes/big win.

I think the BANC is the race for Majborough as well if they go chasing and after IEP wasting a season hurdling last year I'm hoping Willie sends him over the big ones.

[darlojim]

I too think Majborough will be sent chasing but can't see them stepping all the way up to 3 from winning a Triumph.

When was the last 5yo to win? Will be Arkle or Turners for me

[Spectre]

I'd be very surprised if either end up in the Browns.

Majborough would be doing so straight after his juvenile season, so it's highly unlikely. I think he'll be the floater between two and two and a half, essentially being the supporting act to either Ballyburn or Impaire Et Passe. I also think there's a chance they change their mind and hold him back for a second season over hurdles too. Rated 147, there's definitely scope in his mark to do so, and he could be a type to be given a late campaign.

Slade Steel going up to three miles after winning the Supreme would also be very un-HdB-like. He usually prefers to keep them down in trip for as long as he can. He'd be the more plausible of the two though, especially if he gets his arse handed to him by the Mullins pair at two and two and half. After winning the Supreme though I'd be very surprised if he didn't line up in the Arkle.

It is however worth remembering that we haven't seen any of the horses mentioned jump a fence in public yet, and pecking orders can change significantly when they do. In the case of the Mullins horses, they won't have jumped a fence at all yet, and probably won't until late September. State Man is a good recent example of a horse that remained over hurdles because he just didn't take to fences.

Personally, with horses like Majborough and Slade Steel going right up in trip, I'd want to be able to make myself a convincing case either on stats or previous trainer MO before I would back them. I do concede everything has a price though, and I'd never want to talk anyone out of a small bet at the price that's right for them.

[Lobos]

Remember Florida Pearl went straight from winning the Bumper to winning the RSA Chase so Mullins won't hold them back if he feels they are ready. FTF obviously another who took a similar route last season. Admittedly Majborough will only be 5 but he looked every bit a chaser last season and we know Triumph winners historically have turned up some proper staying types.

[Lobos]

Re Slade Steel, he looked beat in the Supreme but guts and stamina got him back up . He also won in deep ground over 2 1/2 in one of the best Hurdle races of the season (which produced 3 Festival winners) once again staying on tenaciously. To me he looks every bit a stayer. He could go Turners but HDB doesn't seem to favour that race and keeps his best staying Novices for the BANC.

Stable tours this year could be very informative.

[Spectre]

Fwiw I see him as a stayer ultimately too Lobos. I tend to use trainer behaviour and typical MO to predict though, and De Bromhead is usually very stubborn in keeping his horses over the minimum trip he thinks they can run over.

He may well see him as a future Gold Cup type too, but that won't prevent him running in the Arkle.

[HoldenTheReins]

Fwiw I see him as a stayer ultimately too Lobos. I tend to use trainer behaviour and typical MO to predict though, and De Bromhead is usually very stubborn in keeping his horses over the minimum trip he thinks they can run over.

He may well see him as a future Gold Cup type too, but that won't prevent him running in the Arkle.

Didn't they avoid Ballyburn last season?

So if he goes Arkle then you'd think they go Turners if they follow the same idea?

[Lobos]

Didn't they avoid Ballyburn last season?

So if he goes Arkle then you'd think they go Turners if they follow the same idea?

Yep, they'll definitely avoid him again imo which makes life all the more difficult.

[Saxon Warrior]

I think Henry is more likely to duck a Hurdle Graded race vs a better horse than a Chase Graded race.

He trained one that followed Douvan round in his Novice Chase season in lots of 2M Graded races incl the Arkle, not afraid to hope that his day would come.

Henry is a master at training racehorses for chases, and if anyone can get improvement for the switch to chasing, it's usually him

Personally I think he'd stick at 2M with Slade Steel if he's his best Novice Chaser, at least up until the DRF in Feb (unless hes beaten beforehand).

As Ive written on my own Diary, theres only 1 Grade 1 2M NovCH in Ireland before the May Punchestown Festival, and that's the Irish Arkle at the DRF.

That could work two ways though, I accept, with more Grade 1s Novice Chasing over 2M3F-2M5F, then those are the ones that the top trainers will target before the DRF, with their best 2M-2M4F Novice Chasers.

It's not a simple one to work out until trainers name a target.
So our opinion (based on trainers past planning, and their current horses) becomes the main driver, for betting, until that time.

[Lobos]

A lot will depend on what they do with Inthepocket and whether he comes back sound and potentially targets the Arkle. His experience, albeit limited, could be a nice advantage. His seasonal debut RPR of 149 (Behind the then Arkle fav Facile Vega) was very respectful in relation to horses that have finished 2nd in The Arkle over the last 10 years so it certainly was a decent run and full of potential. His Hurdles rating measures up pretty well too re previous Arkle horses.

[Spectre]

Didn't they avoid Ballyburn last season?

So if he goes Arkle then you'd think they go Turners if they follow the same idea?

Indeed they did, but they're less likely to over fences. Four reasons for that.

Firstly chasing is a very different discipline, and HdB in particularly is very reluctant to push his novice chasers up in trip until he really has to.

Even if he does decide between the Arkle and the Turners, he's got Impaire Et Passe to consider too now, so essentially no hiding place.

Next, given his run in the Supreme you'd also think that it's more logical to go back and try to win the Arkle on the New Course, that go up in trip to try and win the Turners on the Old Course. I can't stress enough just how different those two courses are.

And finally, so many staying chasers have developed their careers via the Arkle. So many to mention, but I'll use War Of Attrition, Sizing John and Kauto Star as examples of horses that won the Gold Cup via an Arkle. The reason for that is that the best Gold Cup horses have pace as well as stamina, and if you bring that stamina to the fore too early you can easily turn a classy horse into a boat. It's not a coincidence that so many Gold Cup winners have shown pace earlier in their careers, and it's one of the reasons why we are seeing that average age of Gold Cup winners being much younger these days. Horses going the Gold Cup via the Arkle and Turners have a better record than those that went there via a Brown Advisory. I'd be very surprised if Slade Steel went anywhere other than the Arkle or the Turners, and I think HdB would prefer the Arkle of the two. Also, winning isn't essential, as is evidenced by all three of those mentioned above.