General Chat

[Irish Rugby]

Dabbling only in the big 4 races this year. Might look at the Ryanair come around Christmas but wait until January before bothering with the novices and juveniles.

[Odin]

I think there have been and continue to be some great prices about relative to what I've seen over the last few years, you just have to choose your races carefully.

For example, the champion hurdle is a stinker of a race from a betting perspective at the moment. On the flip side, the mares hurdle has been brilliant if you take it at face value that lossie goes champion hurdle and surely they go chasing with brighterdaysahead. There were people on here far shrewder than me saying gerri colombe was a cracking gold cup bet at 25s just after the festival. And I can't believe how good the odds are on the el fabiolo (qmcc) and Gaelic (ryanair) double still...

Not sure why there's limited discussion but I also think having a proper break is good. The stress of the festival takes a lot out of me - particularly the run up to it with all the exchange murmurings - and whilst I don't bet money I can't afford to lose, there's still a decent amount on the line by my standards and I've no desire to lose it so not having the break helps. I'm sure others feel the same?

[Ice]

I think there have been and continue to be some great prices about relative to what I've seen over the last few years just have to choose your races carefully.

For example, the champion hurdle is a stinker of a race from a betting perspective at the moment. On the flip side, the mares hurdle has been brilliant if you take it at face value that lossie goes champion hurdle and surely they go chasing with brighterdaysahead. There were people on here far shrewder than me saying gerri colombe was a cracking gold cup bet at 25s just after the festival. And I can't believe how good the odds are on the el fabiolo (qmcc) and Gaelic (ryanair) double still...

Not sure why there's limited discussion but I also think having a proper break is good. The stress of the festival takes a lot out of me - particularly the run up to it with all the exchange murmurings - and whilst I don't bet money I can't afford to lose, there's still a decent amount on the line by my standards and I've no desire to lose it so not having the break helps. I'm sure others feel the same?

I've had a different approach to the champion hurdle and have backed Constitution Hill @ 5/2, i thought that was a very fair price, though i do accept the risks attached after last season but it could look a massive price come march, it's not normally a price i would back this far out but couldn't resist for FOMO ! Saying that a lot of the money I've got on is bet365 bet credits from the euros so not gone cash crazy ! I have to agree about el fab and gaelic, have backed both and the double, also tempted to have a little on the reverse double, just in case.

[Odin]

I have to agree about el fab and gaelic, have backed both and the double, also tempted to have a little on the reverse double, just in case.

Yeah, I've done the reverse double just in case because I managed to get El Fabiolo at 20/1 Ryanair on Gold Cup day I think it was. I can't see a situation where it happens though as EF doesn't jump well enough to win a Ryanair. The better "reverse" double now could easily be Gaelic (CC), Il Etait Temps (Ryanair), but I have my reservations about IET at Cheltenham as well (think he prefers flat tracks)

[Ice]

Yeah, I've done the reverse double just in case because I managed to get El Fabiolo at 20/1 Ryanair on Gold Cup day I think it was. I can't see a situation where it happens though as EF doesn't jump well enough to win a Ryanair. The better "reverse" double now could easily be Gaelic (CC), Il Etait Temps (Ryanair), but I have my reservations about IET at Cheltenham as well (think he prefers flat tracks)

I'm with you on IET, been pondering backing him for the Ryanair but the three cheltenham runs put me off a little, they weren't that bad but just made me think cheltenham may not be his track.

[Brooker17]

Forgive my naviety but surely if constitution Hill does run in the champing hurdle he wins? I know he was unfortunately missing from last years festival but if he returns he wins? No doubts about his choice of race either

[Ice]

Forgive my naviety but surely if constitution Hill does run in the champing hurdle he wins? I know he was unfortunately missing from last years festival but if he returns he wins? No doubts about his choice of race either

That's why I've backed him, if he gets there fit and well he's only gotta jump round, surely !

[knockando]

Is it fair to say that there is general apathy this year with regard ante post (Cheltenham) ?
I have three bets placed but this is more likely due to having no online access, but having been in here for many years I can't remember a time when so few suggestions/views were shared by all FJs.
Lack of value in the market ?
Uncertainty over potential changes to festival ?

I think there’s a bit of everything you mention in there, I.e. seemingly worse value / condensed odds from the outset, changes to the festival coming (my fave race to punt is the NHC which I’m not even entertaining looking at)….but also - I think this could be my biggest reason - is that my 2024 festival was such a damp squib in the end after a year of build up.

I think quite a few on here felt like that. I looked at my bets the other day, and I just scraped into profit - but all from bets in the week and not my actual antepost bets. Everyone took hammer blows with the likes of Brighterdaysahead or picking the wrong race for Ballyburn as examples which could have made the week superb, but instead - I think left most people deflated. After all of the effort poured in from all of us, not many came out with rewarded riches. That’s the nature of the sport and AP betting, but is still hard to come back from and a break / reset is needed.

That is the key factor for me at the moment, but once October rolls in again, the nights draw in, OJA is published etc - the juices will start flowing again.

[twig78]

Same here Knock, I looked at my spread sheet for last festival and the AP is woeful. A lot of Constitution Hill and El Fabiolo in doubles, trebles etc... Had I have just saved that money and increased my stakes during festival week I'd have been laughing.
But I always think that even if an AP bet hasnt come off it's made me do some working out in the race so I've learnt things. This in turn probably puts me in a much strogner position when the festival comes round and I place larger bets.

[Kevloaf]

Is it fair to say that there is general apathy this year with regard ante post (Cheltenham) ?
I have three bets placed but this is more likely due to having no online access, but having been in here for many years I can't remember a time when so few suggestions/views were shared by all FJs.
Lack of value in the market ?
Uncertainty over potential changes to festival ?

Lack of value in the market for me

I've become quite used to having the break from Cheltenham to October anyway but a quick look at prices when I get a 'free bet' occasionally and wanting to place them doesn't leave the mouth watering

I did have quite a long decision-making session on whether to knock it on the head completely but ano0ther change in circumstances means I'm locked in for the next decade

[Ice]

My enthusiasm for Cheltenham took a knock last festival, it was my first losing one in years, which obviously didn't help but i lost so many antepost bets in the few weeks leading up to the festival that i was left deflated before it started, i know that's part of antepost betting but it hurt more this year as it was so close to the meeting, then el fabiolo flopped and Henderson pulled a lot of his horses out which were just more kicks in the bollocks. It left me contemplating not bothering this year but i decided to go again, even with the appalling prices !

[somer1]

Forgive my naviety but surely if constitution Hill does run in the champing hurdle he wins? I know he was unfortunately missing from last years festival but if he returns he wins? No doubts about his choice of race either

Lossie with the mare’s allowance is something I likes big time. So still banging away on a few doubles with her and others. (Free bets only)

[Yosser]

Forgive my naviety but surely if constitution Hill does run in the champing hurdle he wins? I know he was unfortunately missing from last years festival but if he returns he wins? No doubts about his choice of race either

I am fairly heavily invested in the Hill (again). I have just been putting bits on here and there but the returns have now become quite juicy. I have done all the related doubles too with Teahupoo, El Fab, Fact To File etc. I had a mare last year whe he was pulled (as probably did everybody) I lost 90% of my AP multis in the 3 weeks leading up to Cheltenham for the reasons Ice mentioned but i came out of Cheltenham with my best results i have ever had. Somebody on here mentioned the strength of having losing bet slips in your hand to put you in a better position in races and it is completely true. I stuck about 5 winners in the week on the back of being in a pretty much no lose situation in some races. I am seriously considering this year being my last though but because of the bookies not the races or prices (There is still plenty of value around) This time next year i think it will be almost impossible to get into a healthy AP position because the bookies are doing everything in their power to stop people like us putting clever bets on. They don't wan't our money, they want Brickie dave who sticks all his wages in a roulette machine on a Friday after work. But they are doing it for our own good though

[Spectre]

long time lurker, first time poster. Just thought i would introduce myself and say howdy. Irishman based in Kildare. Happy to share any snippets or nuggets im given on the lead up to Cheltenham 2025.

Welcome to the forum Big Zeb. No need to wait for nuggets (although they're always welcome!), just jump in and share your opinions.

[Spectre]

I think for a host of reasons last season was tougher than usual. After 3 or 4 seasons that were (relatively), predictable, it was hard work making a profit, and I understand why many didn't. Bookmakers are now tighter with prices, but predominantly it was because some of the leading lights either didn't make it to the Festival or underperformed. Even with a full book approach, which a few of us on here adopt, the profits were hardly spectacular, and it's easy to wonder whether all the effort was worth it.


I always think these things need perspective though, and these are the things that firstly spring to mind:

1. Winning and losing, by playing either antepost or during the Festival, should never have a fundamental financial impact. If it does it's better not to get involved at all. Losing, whilst not wanted, desired, or expected, should never be something that should affect either your financial or mental wellbeing. If it does it's time to reassess and have a rethink. Either by cutting stakes right back or by not gambling at all.

2. Learn and evolve. Keeping records is vital. If you don't then it's impossible to understand what went well and what didn't. By keeping records it becomes easier to cut out the mistakes. I suspect most people who made a loss last year could look back and adjust their strategy to one that if applied last year would at least have got to the break even line.

3. Define what your betting bank is for the season, and have the discipline (and strategy), not to go over it. Be certain that you can both afford it, and that you have sufficient bank in play not to be using money that should be allocated to other things. That bank should include for a contingency against events that you can't control such as injuries, incorrect targets, or multiple targets. I would recommend that you have a bank that is approximately a third bigger than you actually should need. The problem with not doing this can be two fold. Either, you start to use money that should be used in other parts of your life, or the limitation can mean that you are weakening your position and making it less likely to make a profit because of the bets you have to miss. Either way, it's not a good position to be in.

4. Be clear about your strategy. Are you trying to build a full book, selective books, trying to find the winner of every race, the winner of a selection of races, and are multiples part of your strategy, and if so how are you building them? Randomly or with a method?

5. Be clear about your staking plan. If in doubt either back to the same stake, or stake to achieve the same return. Don't work on gut feeling and vary your stake or target returns. As with all of the above, discipline is singularly the most important thing, and lack of it is always your biggest downfall.

6. Do everything you can to take any emotion out of what you do. All of the above help, but ultimately if losing makes you feel bad, or winning makes you gamble more, just knock it on the head. Antepost betting is not a good idea.

7. Learn what works best for you and your mentality. You can't be someone else, you have to be you, and therefore your approach has to suit the way you think. In it's simplest form some people will tell you that backing horses to win is the only way you can stay ahead. Others will say the same about backing each way. The truth is the right answer is the one that suits your approach and selection criteria. The one that helps you tp keep an even mind. And if you keep accurate records of your bets, the evidence will tell you your own answer anyway.

8. Keep learning. Being a generalist when gambling rarely works. You need to find your lane. But when you do you can't be complacent. If you don't change, improve, and evolve, everything around you does, and sooner or later the methods that made you a profit no longer do. I suspect this and a combination of the factors above are why so many people made a loss last season when they probably thought winning by playing the antepost Cheltenham markets is easy. We had three relatively straight forward seasons before last season, but there have been plenty of tougher seasons previously, and all of the disciplines above are how to stay ahead, or at least to limit losses to a minimum in a bad season.

9. It's allowed to be fun too. I recognise that I'm at the excessive end of the scale when it comes to winning, whereas some people just do it for fun. If the losses are acceptable, and it's provided the equivalent level of entertainment without causing any form of anxiety then that's fine. The last part of the sentence is the arbiter though.

10. There are so many really good people on here that are more than happy to talk about what they do. Don't be afraid to ask. I've been playing the antepost markets for 25 years or more, and others on here may be similar. My experience is my most valuable asset, along with all the disciplines I've mentioned above. I'm always happy to offer help and advice, and I know others are too. I am more careful about putting detail in the public domain now though. I know bookies (traders who are responsible for particular events), actively track what happens on here. Partially because they're lazy, and largely because we give them everything they need to look good in there jobs. I recently met a trader who introduced himself and actually admitted this was true!!!


Point 10 is such a large contributor to why winning was harder last season, and won't be getting any easier anytime soon. I had a good conversation with Stevo of Coral fame, who happily admitted that bookies hate us, and the days of generous antepost odds are over. There was a fundamental shift in odds post the 2023 Festival. The very early odds between Cheltenham and Punchestown were a significant percentage lower than they'd been previously, and horses towards the head of the market were priced nearer to what you'd expect on the day, and largely horses that were typically in the 25/1-50/1 bracket were half what they were previously. This year they're even tighter, and that very obviously means not acting accordingly will make it very hard to make a profit this year. The bookies now feed on the FOMO. We on here actively feed that, which is just bonkers. This place is the preeminent place to find everything you need for Cheltenham antepost, so we we shouldn't be surprised that discussing our strategies and horses that need considering is now actually working against us because the bookies react immediately. That leaves three choices. Just cut back and be significantly more selective, which is pretty much where Istabraq opened up this discussion. Adapt our methods to stay ahead, which is what I've done. And/or keep the good stuff to the members only section. There are no worng answers to any of those by the way. The only wrong answer is to do exactly the same as last season if you made a loss.

As I've said I'm going to be more cautious about what I post on the open forum now. I and others have put a lot of information in the public domain in the past that ultimately has been used to make it harder for us to win, so I will perhaps set up a diary which only members can see to discuss these things. What I will say though is that I feel as though I am in one of my best antepost positions this early for a few years. I still have some small gaps to infill, but I will do so over the next couple of quiet months, and I can then focus on adjusting my positions as the season unfolds, rather than chasing horses as prices plummet. Being in that position always makes it hard to balance books when you have too many sub double figure prices in play in your books. And it's why I will continue to be an advocate of playing antepost as early as possible. Having the whole summer to get my positions right before people drive the prices down is so valuable in the long run. Just to be clear though, I have my own personal set of rules, so it's not a case of carpet bombing bets across all the markets. All bets must meet the very strict criteria I use.

Anyway, I know it's a long post, and whilst there may be egg-sucking in there for some, I'd imagine it could be useful for anyone who had a harder time making a profit last season. At least I hope so, because playing antepost isn't as easy a it appears on the surface, and certainly not the way it appears from looking at peoples diaries over the last three or four years.