General Chat

[Kevloaf]

That bloke is comedy gold. But my god the number of horses he's written off who've bolted up NTO That video is quality though. PN went up in my estimations too. Other than naming CH as his nap of the week like he's a 6/1 shot

My guess here is you got in to racing after Kauto/Denman/Masterminded/Big Bucks - as I don't see how PN can't be high in anyones estimations

[Stormez]

Might not be for Everyone , but i watched the youtube podcast -Racing Post - Johnny Dineen vs Paul Nicholls .
D.J. and J.D went to Paul Nicholls yard , to chat . if you have an hour spare ..

I watched it last night as there was nothing else on, and enjoyed it a lot more than I thought I would. Nicholls came across much better than I expected him to.

[Exar Essay]

My guess here is you got in to racing after Kauto/Denman/Masterminded/Big Bucks - as I don't see how PN can't be high in anyones estimations

Errrrmmm it was a gradual thing for me. Was into racing by mid 2000's but much more into it recently. But his hissy fits last year really grated. I should say, went up in my estimations as a personality, not a trainer obviously. HIs credentials there aren't in doubt.

[Kevloaf]

The list of horses who didn't come back to near their best would be much longer wouldn't it though?

So it wouldn't be the worst day to day betting strategy iv ever heard

I wonder if anyone has ever looked at backing horses on an upward curve...as a blanket rule

Something like, backing a horse after a career best run, how many win next time?

You'd catch 'all' the progressive handicappers ..... probably could narrow it down to a certain set of races.

Not going to do the leg work on it but I'd be interested to see it

[riccirich]

The list of horses who didn't come back to near their best would be much longer wouldn't it though?

So it wouldn't be the worst day to day betting strategy iv ever heard

That’s why I said take each case on it’s merits. If the horse in question who performed poorly is getting on in age and looks to be slowly declining, if they bled, consistent wind problems, really nasty physical injury during a race etc then those are all big issues that horses can struggle to get back to their very best after.

the problem with what Dineen says is if they perform badly for any reason at all, which I assume includes defibrillating heart, running poorly in the final race of a long season, not jumping fences as well as they do hurdles, not scoping well post race, stable as a whole not performing well at the time etc, all of which tend to be minor issues that horses rebound from, so taking a blanket approach and grouping these cases in with the prior cases I mentioned just isn’t the smartest thing to do imo

[AaronLad]

I watched the upping the ante paul nicholls special and thought what a great idea for a regular show.
Different trainer and yard each episode, having a chat about horses and targets, bit of banter and maybe the odd cheltenham bet.
would make a much better build up series of shows than the stagnant shit everyone seems to be putting on you tube.

[Brooksie]

I watched the upping the ante paul nicholls special and thought what a great idea for a regular show.
Different trainer and yard each episode, having a chat about horses and targets, bit of banter and maybe the odd cheltenham bet.
would make a much better build up series of shows than the stagnant shit everyone seems to be putting on you tube.

Yeah I thought that was a pretty good watch, it's quite noticeable how much more relaxed Paul is around media and pundits ect, 10-15 years ago he took himself far too seriously and wouldn't have entertained this at all. If Johnny called out Kauto like he did BMG he'd have probably sent a hitman round his house.

[FinalFurlong91]

That’s why I said take each case on it’s merits. If the horse in question who performed poorly is getting on in age and looks to be slowly declining, if they bled, consistent wind problems, really nasty physical injury during a race etc then those are all big issues that horses can struggle to get back to their very best after.

the problem with what Dineen says is if they perform badly for any reason at all, which I assume includes defibrillating heart, running poorly in the final race of a long season, not jumping fences as well as they do hurdles, not scoping well post race, stable as a whole not performing well at the time etc, all of which tend to be minor issues that horses rebound from, so taking a blanket approach and grouping these cases in with the prior cases I mentioned just isn’t the smartest thing to do imo

He seems to bet mainly day to day and generally on shorties

I'd imagine he's been stung too many times by horses that ran way below form LTO and now just avoids them

Perfectly reasonable strategy

I'd imagine the bookies love laying bets on short priced favs that ran a stinker the time before

[Quevega]

He seems to bet mainly day to day and generally on shorties

I'd imagine he's been stung too many times by horses that ran way below form LTO and now just avoids them

Perfectly reasonable strategy

I'd imagine the bookies love laying bets on short priced favs that ran a stinker the time before

Not sure he avoids them though, he seems mad keen on laying them.

[riccirich]

He seems to bet mainly day to day and generally on shorties

I'd imagine he's been stung too many times by horses that ran way below form LTO and now just avoids them

Perfectly reasonable strategy

I'd imagine the bookies love laying bets on short priced favs that ran a stinker the time before

Not sure about what his actual strategy is so maybe he could go into detail as to why it suits the specific way that he bets.

but it you bet that way ante post for cheltenham, then looking at the head of the market in the big six races, and using his strategy strictly, you wouldn’t be on Marie’s rock, Epatante, Edwardstone, gent de mee, blue lord, teahupoo, flooring, klassical, hbtl, shishkin, janidil, fury road, Galopin, stattler, bmg, a plus tard, so you’d be giving yourself a very small pool of horses that you could actually have a bet on on top of that every handicap race is ruled out since every horse in them has run poorly on purpose at some point.

[Rooster Booster]

The problem for JD is he's asked for his opinion, and he doesn't sit on fences. He gave his opinion at that moment in time, that's how he is.

Totally understand him taking a view on Shishkin. Whether I agreed or not I can at least understand his thinking. What I find less understable is how he could put up a horse like Gallyhill as his ‘if you only back one horse this weekend’ horse.

I would question whether a single person on this forum would have landed on such a choice. Genuine question, how can any professional punter expect to be taken seriously with judgement like that. If ever there was a horse that better represented it’s sire than Gallyhill id like to know and a professional punter with just an average level of knowledge would know this wouldn’t they ???

[Rooster Booster]

Just a thought and this may be a terrible idea but prompted by the last two out for the season updates. Can we have a major and minor thread.

I appreciate it would be subjective but all of us would get this balance right more often than not. If we wanted to provide folks with a bit of guidance we could use current price less than or greater than as a guide. like everyone i pretty much shit myself every time. Like I say just a thought.

[Kevloaf]

Just a thought and this may be a terrible idea but prompted by the last two out for the season updates. Can we have a major and minor thread.

I appreciate it would be subjective but all of us would get this balance right more often than not. If we wanted to provide folks with a bit of guidance we could use current price less than or greater than as a guide. like everyone i pretty much shit myself every time. Like I say just a thought.

It's hard enough to manage at the moment with just one, where people can't 'comment' - I fear a major / minor would get a bit confusing for us simple FJ folk



Also, I get the same feeling BUT then when I read it, and it's a horse that even I haven't backed, that feeling is nice.



It's like losing wallet, searching, but then finding it. Lovely.

[Rooster Booster]

It's hard enough to manage at the moment with jsut one, where people can't 'comment' - I fear a major / minor would get a bit confuisng for us simple FJ folk



Also, I get tyhe same feeling BUT then I read it's a horse I even I haven't backed and that feeling is nice.



It's like losing wallet, searching, but then finding it. Lovely.

No worries. Your heart is a lot fitter and younger I suspect but I kind of like your way of approaching it…I’ll give it a go. If I don’t post for a few weeks you might want to send someone round just in case

[Quevega]

No worries. Your heart is a lot fitter and younger I suspect but I kind of like your way of approaching it…I’ll give it a go. If I don’t post for a few weeks you might want to send someone round just in case

Kev's heart is made of KFC.
His blood is chicken gravy.