General Chat

[BarrowNH01]

Jeremys Flame running at Bellewstown tonight for Gavin Cromwell in the Gerry Cromwell memorial hurdle. Think thats as good a sign of it having a good chance than anything. Might be good leverage for some potential roll ups if anyone is keen.

Wasnt to be for Jeremys flame, apologies if anyone followed me in. We'll get one next time!

[Quevega]

For those interested in these things, I've finally got my 2023 diaries up and running. My multiples are all up to date, but my singles diary will be a work in progress because of the detail I include. My Supreme Novices book and analysis is complete already and the others will continue to follow as time permits.

Could I ask for your feedback on any holes that you can see, or any obvious errors as I don't want to mislead with stats. Plus any additional stats or trends you may have picked up in addition to those I cover. I'm also happy to answer any questions anyone has.

Thanks in advance for any comments or contributions you guys make.

When you show the results from the previous year (on the individual races), it ought to be noted that the points staked and profit does not factor in any losses or indeed profits made prior to the Off.
Undoubtedly with the volume of bets you and others on here make, the festival will start in the red for most grade 1 races.

I'll ignore the after timing .

[Kevloaf]

I set today aside to do two somewhat related tasks..... watch back Day 1, and dismember the temporary hot tub I bought after last years festival.

As I'm sure none of you will care to remember, I bought a temporary one (blow up from B&Q) to just make sure I wouldn't be 'wasting my money' by buying an all-singing-all-dancing edition that I'd worked towards all year..... and after waiting over a month to bother initially filling it, I forgot the chemicals and therefore never even switched it on to heat it... it's been sat, stagnent, for months


Today I emptied it.


What an absolute ordeal. Tried my best not to have to touch the water, despite watching Bear Grylls once drink water from elephant shite, I was being overally cautious at first..... and then made a huge error in forgetting to attach the rubber 'stoppers' before I unscrewed it and the rancid water started gushing all over the garden! Had to dive in and plug the gaps and stuff the stoppers in place. I've had about 4 showers since



Might be the worst use of a days annual leave ever too

Not sure where I'm going to dispose of it either. That'll be tomorrows problem, and another day of annual leave well spent

[Saxon Warrior]

So what’s the decision on a Big Shiny New Hot Tub then Kev ?

[Fouroverthrutwo]

I set today aside to do two somewhat related tasks..... watch back Day 1, and dismember the temporary hot tub I bought after last years festival.

As I'm sure none of you will care to remember, I bought a temporary one (blow up from B&Q) to just make sure I wouldn't be 'wasting my money' by buying an all-singing-all-dancing edition that I'd worked towards all year..... and after waiting over a month to bother initially filling it, I forgot the chemicals and therefore never even switched it on to heat it... it's been sat, stagnent, for months


Today I emptied it.


What an absolute ordeal. Tried my best not to have to touch the water, despite watching Bear Grylls once drink water from elephant shite, I was being overally cautious at first..... and then made a huge error in forgetting to attach the rubber 'stoppers' before I unscrewed it and the rancid water started gushing all over the garden! Had to dive in and plug the gaps and stuff the stoppers in place. I've had about 4 showers since



Might be the worst use of a days annual leave ever too

Not sure where I'm going to dispose of it either. That'll be tomorrows problem, and another day of annual leave well spent

I bought a 3m blow up pool for the kids when they were younger. I bought all the chemicals, the dosing kit and all the b**locks. It took all day to fill it up and once full, the dog jumped in and burst it! The garden was flooded with 3 tonnes of water, the kids were crying and I was sobbing watching my 200 quid 'investment' float down the garden.

[Quevega]

I set today aside to do two somewhat related tasks..... watch back Day 1, and dismember the temporary hot tub I bought after last years festival.

As I'm sure none of you will care to remember, I bought a temporary one (blow up from B&Q) to just make sure I wouldn't be 'wasting my money' by buying an all-singing-all-dancing edition that I'd worked towards all year..... and after waiting over a month to bother initially filling it, I forgot the chemicals and therefore never even switched it on to heat it... it's been sat, stagnent, for months


Today I emptied it.


What an absolute ordeal. Tried my best not to have to touch the water, despite watching Bear Grylls once drink water from elephant shite, I was being overally cautious at first..... and then made a huge error in forgetting to attach the rubber 'stoppers' before I unscrewed it and the rancid water started gushing all over the garden! Had to dive in and plug the gaps and stuff the stoppers in place. I've had about 4 showers since



Might be the worst use of a days annual leave ever too

Not sure where I'm going to dispose of it either. That'll be tomorrows problem, and another day of annual leave well spent

Not sure if you've had children yet Kevin.
But if it ever comes up, then think really hard if a birthing pool at home is mentioned as an option.
I think you know who'll be left empying that on his first day of parental leave !

Ain't nobody got time for that.

[Kevloaf]

So what’s the decision on a Big Shiny New Hot Tub then Kev ?

An unequivocal no .... far too lazy to keep it in good condition.

Move on to the next shiny pipe dream!

I bought a 3m blow up pool for the kids when they were younger. I bought all the chemicals, the dosing kit and all the b**locks. It took all day to fill it up and once full, the dog jumped in and burst it! The garden was flooded with 3 tonnes of water, the kids were crying and I was sobbing watching my 200 quid 'investment' float down the garden.

Haha, fantastic... woofing unreal!

Not sure if you've had children yet Kevin.
But if it ever comes up, then think really hard if a birthing pool at home is mentioned as an option.
I think you know who'll be left empying that on his first day of parental leave !

Ain't nobody got time for that.

Yet?


No ........ but point very, very well received and duly noted brother!

[Spectre]

When you show the results from the previous year (on the individual races), it ought to be noted that the points staked and profit does not factor in any losses or indeed profits made prior to the Off.
Undoubtedly with the volume of bets you and others on here make, the festival will start in the red for most grade 1 races.

Indeed it doesn't Q, but I think you're aware of my modus operandi of locking in a profit on the exchange before the Festival begins. Preferably well before. Of the graded races last season only the Arkle started out at a loss before the event, with 58 points down before the race started (which is stated in my diary and will be in this years). It was a tough one all season losing strong positions on Appreciate It and then Ferny Hollow through injury. I only suffered a small loss after the event in the end. Fortunately I had the right horses running for me on the day which helped to mitigate most of the potential losses.

If you go back to my 2022 diary you'll see all outlay is accounted for in every race including all horses that I've lost stake on for various reasons, but usually injury, The only thing that isn't accounted for is any profit I've made in addition from the exchange because I don't declare it. My diary will show the same information this year. Indeed it does in the Supreme this year with my full points outlay last year which includes a minus figure from a lost bet.

One big change for me this year is I've lost Bet365 and the obvious (but decreasing), benefit of cashout. I have some early bets with them this season but I'm unable to cash them out if I need to. I am fortunate that someone has kindly placed a few bets for me in their account since then, but that increases the chance of not being able to cash out if I hear information before it goes into the public domain. Whilst you never want to take any losses, I factor in that I expect antepost losses to happen. It will have more of an impact on overall profits this season though, and I don't expect the easy ride we've largely had over the last couple of seasons, where we haven't seen as many high profile horses not making the Festival as has been the case in the past.

I'll ignore the after timing .

I know there's no intent, but the comment is fair enough. For anyone that may have doubts around accuracy, I've said previously I'm happy to show accounts if someone feels strongly about it. Putting so much information into my diary is a bit of an ordeal to be honest, but it's worth it for selfish reasons. Doing it after the season has ended and during the flat season makes it hard to get motivated to refresh the information, update the stats and trends, and then type it all out. I've had a good purge over the last couple of weeks though, so I'll keep chipping away at getting everything done and into the individual diaries over the coming weeks. I might need a kick to keep it updated though!

[Saxon Warrior]

Indeed it doesn't Q, but I think you're aware of my modus operandi of locking in a profit on the exchange before the Festival begins. Preferably well before. Of the graded races last season only the Arkle started out at a loss before the event, with 58 points down before the race started (which is stated in my diary and will be in this years). It was a tough one all season losing strong positions on Appreciate It and then Ferny Hollow through injury. I only suffered a small loss after the event in the end. Fortunately I had the right horses running for me on the day which helped to mitigate most of the potential losses.

If you go back to my 2022 diary you'll see all outlay is accounted for in every race including all horses that I've lost stake on for various reasons, but usually injury, The only thing that isn't accounted for is any profit I've made in addition from the exchange because I don't declare it. My diary will show the same information this year. Indeed it does in the Supreme this year with my full points outlay last year which includes a minus figure from a lost bet.

One big change for me this year is I've lost Bet365 and the obvious (but decreasing), benefit of cashout. I have some early bets with them this season but I'm unable to cash them out if I need to. I am fortunate that someone has kindly placed a few bets for me in their account since then, but that increases the chance of not being able to cash out if I hear information before it goes into the public domain. Whilst you never want to take any losses, I factor in that I expect antepost losses to happen. It will have more of an impact on overall profits this season though, and I don't expect the easy ride we've largely had over the last couple of seasons, where we haven't seen as many high profile horses not making the Festival as has been the case in the past.



I know there's no intent, but the comment is fair enough. For anyone that may have doubts around accuracy, I've said previously I'm happy to show accounts if someone feels strongly about it. Putting so much information into my diary is a bit of an ordeal to be honest, but it's worth it for selfish reasons. Doing it after the season has ended and during the flat season makes it hard to get motivated to refresh the information, update the stats and trends, and then type it all out. I've had a good purge over the last couple of weeks though, so I'll keep chipping away at getting everything done and into the individual diaries over the coming weeks. I might need a kick to keep it updated though!

Thorough stuff, as would expect from you Spectre

Your hit rate of being able to dispose of bets gone "bad" is always brilliant work, and leaves me in complete embarrassment on my figures

I've just reverted back to my own Diary to look at the heavy losses I took pre-Festival, and the mitigation I took to lessen them.

Sax - Headline figures March 2022

* Bets survived 101pts to Cheltenham and ran in the right race
* Pre-Festival Lost bets 38pts (27% of my bets didnt make it, 73% did - above)
* These are net of cashout losses or profits.
* Didnt get much layed on BFX as the liquidity on horses I didnt want, for races, was poor to non-existent.

Other Mitigation - Roll-up Profit/Losses (not really relevent to the figures above, but its all Ive got)
Roll-Up Profits - +36pts
Roll-Ups Lost Pre-Festival -16pts
Net Roll-Ups +20pts profit (= the Yibir factor)

* I cashed out 6 bets with Yibir (a 25/1) for 23pts profit - which I doubt will ever be repeated
(on TBO, PTKO, Echoes, App.It, Hollow and JWM)
* Without Yibir I would have not made a profit on these cashouts
(I expect a loss, not to cashout big profits, and to have a pot of rollovers to help make profits in March, not before)

Even adding the oddity of a Rollover Cashout profit of +20pts, in mitigation of my 38pts lost on win bets that didnt get to Cheltenham, I still lost -18pts pre-Festival.

Thats 18pts loss to cover as well as the 101pts running at Cheltenham, so c18% lost in my book net of mitigation before Cheltenham.

This type of figure is normal enough for me.

The proper figure of -38pts lost, was horrid, the worst %age I've had.

-------------------------------------------

Spectres Better Route
Looking at the figures you have in your Diary for March
28 races,
21 races you had no losses uncovered at all - wonderful

7 races you had a total of -83pts lost before Cheltenham

These losses you stood against around 2252pts of bets that ran

So around 3% of losses, pre-Festival on singles/eachway
and only 1% losses if Appreciate It/Ferny -58pts hadnt happened.



Its staggering stuff, I know how hard you work on it, and its a credit to you that you have next to no losses carried forward by Festival Tuesday.

If I ever got close to that, I would be certain of winning when I turn up on course.

I know you have mentioned you trade out the "gone bad" bets, that cannot be cashed out, and that you no longer want
(NR's injuries, wrong races, loss of form etc)

To help me to be better, could you give an outline on
* how you use BFX to clear out all of those horses you dont want from your book?
* where and when the liquidity allows it?
* what triggers send you off to BFX to lay off there, and gets you out clean (or in profit)?
* are there other profits from BFX lays that can help you mitigate this?
* do you need a big pts bank for BFX lays, and big prices?
* how do you lay-off the place part of these bets, when BFX dont do EW antepost?

I would really love to get as clean a book as possible pre-Festival, and your way seems to be able to deliver 100% better than mine, so I am your pupil on this, and you are the tutor.

I dont need to see proof, I'm more than happy to know that you cover almost all losses pre-Festival.
Your attention to detail, is immense.

I'm solely searching for some steps to take along the pathway to find a way to be a little better, and to make the bookies suffer a little more

[Spectre]

Hi Sax. In terms of pre-Festival losses I work hard at uncovering information before it hits the public domain. You know some of this from our offline dialogue. But not having the same access to cash out this season will mean I can expect a much higher percentage of losses this season. I know this has been a large contributing factor for you too in more recent years, as cash out hasn't been available to you. I'm reasonably philosophical about this as it hasn't always been available and I've just treated it as a bonus while it lasted. I'd imagine losing it would be tougher for those newer to the antepost game though, as it's something that may have always been there.

In terms of either cashing out or laying off is concerned it very much depends on my changing opinions of horses as the season develops. I run two things that are impossible to track and maintain on here. I will back horses for the sole purpose of laying because it's not difficult to predict that prices will contract. Largely these are non-novices from the right stables. Alternatively I'll cash out if a price hasn't moved and I no longer want a horse in my book. I do this significantly less often. It doesn't really work in a diary, but it adds to profits and gives a nice safety net.

In terms of multiples beyond doubles, to de-risk as much as possible, I split bets up into their component parts. So for example in what would be a standard yankee I can offload the necessary legs if I get wind of a problem or I have a concern. I usually take an ultra-cautious approach because I can always go back in later. That said this is getting more difficult/frustrating because of false information, particularly information that's started through social media. I cashed several times last year when things turned out to be fine. This is something that I've never properly resolved in mu own head, so I just take the cautious approach, rather than have the frustration of waiting. The multiples are where I'm more exposed without cash out because it's not so straightforward. There are options though. I can still lay the horse that I'm concerned about for the full stake or more of the legs that won't run in a multiple.

As a change of approach this year I have considerably more bets with Paddy Power and Sportsbook than I've had previously because I still have cash out with them, but I'm finding myself compromising with that at times in favour of getting a price, much as I would have done before cash out was a thing.

Essentially though all of this relies on getting information as early as possible and before the bookies can act. This is such an important thing. Being connected and working hard at getting information in is so important. There are times when I will contact a stable direct if I have concerns about lack of entries, so I do the 'front-foot' work too. But there are also times like the Arkle where I get caught, as I did with Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow. It seem that often it seems to be the Willie Mullins horses I get caught on. Not always, because I do get information from the stable, ut in both cases I was too late, which cost me 58 points in one race before it had even started.

You're right about the size of bank required to play the exchange game. It's something I've built up over a number of years, and I always carry a large account balance. Not just for reactionary stuff, but also for trades in other markets across the year, and I also outright lay horses on the exchange. I cant advocate the use of the exchange to both lock in profits and to mitigate strongly enough. You're right to consider how you use it. For antepost purposes, I'd suggest you consider/predict what price a horse may be at various stages of the season, and stake accordingly to lay sufficient to allow you free bets for the stake you want remaining. It doesn't work always, but if you spread across enough horses/markets law averages makes it pretty foolproof as a strategy. The caveat being you need to be able to fund a sizeable balance. Essentially it's fairly easy to rely on your experience of how markets respond both on entries, and on the results of races. Some horses are going to carry more risks than others, novices and juveniles largely, but from the right stables these are still acceptable opportunities. The graded races afford multiple opportunities, and timed right (and again horses from the right stables) the handicaps can be an excellent opportunity, particularly if you're a follower of stats and trends, because markets are moved by trend horses.

But overall, you hit the nail on the head. It's about hard work and attention to detail. Plus a large dose of pure obsession. I know this is an area that you also excel in, and by overlaying new strategies I have no doubt you could significantly improve your ROI's and save some wasted points going west. Happy to talk at any point if I can help.

[Guinness Village]

Anyone got any feedback from the Cheltenham club?
I’ve just got quotes for 4 person table for all options. Quite pricey

[darlojim]

I love this time of year, where the excitement is just starting to filter in ahead of the National Hunt season, this place seems to just come alive from end of September onwards.

Can't wait!

[Guinness Village]

Had a fantastic time at York last week, but lack of fatjockey attendance at car park picnic a bit disappointing!!

[Mighty]

Off to Plumpton on Sunday 18th for my first taste of autumnal NH racing. Not sure if any other FJs will be heading down, but happy to share some beers if so. Feels like the summer has taken an age to pass!

[Saxon Warrior]

But overall, you hit the nail on the head. It's about hard work and attention to detail. Plus a large dose of pure obsession. I know this is an area that you also excel in, and by overlaying new strategies I have no doubt you could significantly improve your ROI's and save some wasted points going west. Happy to talk at any point if I can help.

Fantastic response Spectre

Thank you so much for the explanations.

It's really a niggle for me on last years NRs.
Aiming to be closer to perfection rather than thinking I need to adapt too much.

It didn't touch the sides on profitability thankfully, and Im blessed that the year was so mega.

My strategy has had to adapt like yours, for similar reasons too.
I noted last night that of the portfolio of Festival bets I've got already that 30% were on BFX.

* Partly this is because of a better price
* Partly as it's then easier to lay, at zero bank, if your bet is already on that horse in that market.
* Partly because I've evolved into the Exchange far more - it tells me more about markets that any other bookies sites.

So I think I'm better covered than last year.

I'm also as keen to go heavier on those I really rate, or whose prospects I think are stronger than their market rivals (rather than cover more horses).

Cashout where possible on the majority, or BFX..

Not getting deep into Novice Hurdlers that may lead to race swaps, keep nimble to change.

The proof will come out when the season starts, trainers make entries, books are read and stable tours are produced.

I'm going lighter on detailing every rollup placed and horse backed, but I will be putting a large amount of content out there on various Dairies as usual, and particularly my own, of course.

Your willingness to share in detail today, in your reply to me, does you great credit, my friend.
I'm grateful as always for your experience and input.