General Chat

[taylorch1990]

It's probably best just backing the Skelton's blind atm. 2 winners already today

They've both won very easily as well stable is flying.

[Lobos]

It's probably best just backing the Skelton's blind atm. 2 winners already today

I've become a fully paid up member of the Skelton fan club. My Drogo, Third Time Lucki, Nube Negra and Nurse Susan have been my latest AP bets for Cheltenham and he trains them all !

[charlie]

I've become a fully paid up member of the Skelton fan club. My Drogo, Third Time Lucki, Nube Negra and Nurse Susan have been my latest AP bets for Cheltenham and he trains them all !

I noticed a bit of recency bias creeping into your horses to follow Lobos

It does feel a bit like you like them now because they're running now - thats what it looks like.

I wasn't overly impressed with any of the horses you mention and would be genuinely surprised if just Willie didn't have one better in each respective race, let alone across all trainers.

No disrespect to Dan Skelton, but he's not really a trainer known for hauling in lots of festival winners is he.

Things could fall fortuitously his way through injuries or luck, but thats not a good strategy and based on what we've seen so far, I have no real reason to doubt why the Irish won't dominate again, with a similar 23+ haul of winners.

Its a big mistake IMO to back lots of British trained horses based on early season form - there are simply better horses we haven't seen yet.

The Brits could land a few handicaps, maybe a championship race, but then look what happened to Langer Dan last year. Backed off the boards, well handicapped, clearly targeted the race, finished 11L clear of 3rd pulling away and lost to....... a Mullins horse.

It's a familiar dance and I'll be tapping my feet to the Willie Mullins beat!!!

Irish dominance won't last forever and I could be wrong, but that battering last year was statistically a long time coming and the best trainers and horses (at the moment) seem to be congregated in Ireland.

Might have to do the Dan Skelton quadruple now just in case I'm spectacularly wrong - how mega would that be

[Istabraq]

I noticed a bit of recency bias creeping into your horses to follow Lobos

I think that's an easy trap to fall in for all of us.
There's an army of Irelands best yet to come out and I think this is when we can accurately compare them against the best of the UK horses.

Kilcruit, Sir Gerhard, Appreciate It, Bob Olinger, Honeysuckle, Klassical Dream, Blue Lord, Ferny Hollow, Allaho, Stattler, A Plus Tard, Dysart Dynamo, Gerri Colombe, Journey With Me, Galopin des Champs, Energumene, Chacun, Elimay, to name just a few.
Who of the UK horses will be serious contenders for a festival race that we have yet to see this season, Shishkin ?

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

No disrespect to Dan Skelton, but he's not really a trainer known for hauling in lots of festival winners is he.

I agree with everything in your post apart from this...haha! I feel like Dan is a man with a plan and I wouldn’t personally be put off as much as you with his prior Festival record. Nothing stays the same forever and I don’t find it to hard to imagine that he could be the main British trainer (or at least second to Nicky if he’s not already) taking on the Irish in the next couple of years. Fair bit needs to happen before then but he seems to be on the right trajectory for that to happen.

[Lobos]

Can see maybe why you are thinking that but I've been selective though in that both Nube Negra and My Drogo are very classy animals and with TTL if Appreciate It/Ferney were to underperform then I'd be sitting on the favourite. Nurse Susan is a little more speculative but she really took my eye for one with no experience of a racecourse at all which says a lot about her.

I've just watched Upping the Ante 2nd episode and you can tell even they are getting a little worried re the ground situation and the fact we are unlikely to see many/if any of Mullins big guns for some time yet. It could mean them going to Cheltenham with just 2 runs under their belts max or having an odd rushed preparation which could well benefit the horses that have been out early. They desperately need rain in Ireland and quick ! That was at the back of my mind with several of my recent additions to my AP portfolio. Its not going to be plain sailing this year I fear.

[charlie]

I agree with everything in your post apart from this...haha! I feel like Dan is a man with a plan and I wouldn’t personally be put off as much as you with his prior Festival record. Nothing stays the same forever and I don’t find it to hard to imagine that he could be the main British trainer (or at least second to Nicky if he’s not already) taking on the Irish in the next couple of years. Fair bit needs to happen before then but he seems to be on the right trajectory for that to happen.

I don't like making sweeping statements about Irish vs British runners because I firmly believe each and every horse should be judged on it's individual merit. It can seem like quite a lazy way to approach things and I don't mean to discredit genuine British contenders, of which there are some, but IMO its important to recognise the landscape of racing and acknowledge, as a lot of British trainers have, that the Irish dominance exists, it's here to stay, and it's not going to change overnight. Given everything we know now, it wouldn't be remotely surprising to see another 23-5, or even 25+ Irish winners. For that reason (unless you're making a book), backing 3-4 Skelton horses, 2-3 Nicholls Horses, 2-3 Henderson horses etc, seems bound for disappointment ante post, unless backing EW. I'm trying (and admittedly sometimes failing) to add British trained horses really sparingly ante post for these reasons. Strictly speaking, Skelton doesn't train many Cheltenham winners, Paul openly plays down Cheltenham and seemingly favours Aintree, and Nicky seems to find all the reasons not to run, than run. They may all have credible plans and live contenders, but I doubt many will win and my ante post book will be weighted accordingly, safe in the knowledge that if things change so can I, this is just my ante post approach.

[robith]

Weirdly enough I was covering cognitive biases in a craft skills session I was running today at work. Always worth sharing for judging horses

[Craigy14]

I don't like making sweeping statements about Irish vs British runners because I firmly believe each and every horse should be judged on it's individual merit. It can seem like quite a lazy way to approach things and I don't mean to discredit genuine British contenders, of which there are some, but IMO its important to recognise the landscape of racing and acknowledge, as a lot of British trainers have, that the Irish dominance exists, it's here to stay, and it's not going to change overnight. Given everything we know now, it wouldn't be remotely surprising to see another 23-5, or even 25+ Irish winners. For that reason (unless you're making a book), backing 3-4 Skelton horses, 2-3 Nicholls Horses, 2-3 Henderson horses etc, seems bound for disappointment ante post, unless backing EW. I'm trying (and admittedly sometimes failing) to add British trained horses really sparingly ante post for these reasons. Strictly speaking, Skelton doesn't train many Cheltenham winners, Paul openly plays down Cheltenham and seemingly favours Aintree, and Nicky seems to find all the reasons not to run, than run. They may all have credible plans and live contenders, but I doubt many will win and my ante post book will be weighted accordingly, safe in the knowledge that if things change so can I, this is just my ante post approach.

I completely agree with the current Irish dominance (Henderson deserves a mention of the British imo).

What I would say though, as much as we all thought this year was a one off, I can see this year panning out very very similar in that the bookies could take a hiding again with a lot of favs going in (they dodged a couple too!). The bookies probably see it too given the prices are even worse this year than last year! If we agree there is a current dominance for the Irish, which is plain to see there is, other than Henderson and the occasional other I can see the Irish winning most of the non-handicap races. It may not pan out this way but I think it will and will be surprised if it isn’t actually.

Last year was exceptional for all on here, hopefully it is the same again. Not counting any chickens yet but that’s the way I see it.

[Quevega]

Hands Up ?
Who recognises something in themselves in every one of them ?
Preferable if you don't suffer too much with No 4 though.
Otherwise there's no hope for you.

Brilliant post robith

[BigChaang]

Weirdly enough I was covering cognitive biases in a craft skills session I was running today at work. Always worth sharing for judging horses

Oh My GOD Robith , This is Me..... Every single one !! , I need help !!! . Especially with my Clustering Illusion and my Severe Ostrich Effect . .

[Istabraq]

Weirdly enough I was covering cognitive biases in a craft skills session I was running today at work. Always worth sharing for judging horses

Great stuff robith
Whilst they can all impact us negatively I'd say those with 'number 7' syndrome will struggle more, I drink with a few mates on Saturdays and so many of them fall foul of this....

[robith]

Great stuff robith
Whilst they can all impact us negatively I'd say those with 'number 7' syndrome will struggle more, I drink with a few mates on Saturdays and so many of them fall foul of this....

Yep, my number one rule for life is being open to being wrong "strong opinions, lightly held" my dad always says to me.

My main issue at the moment is battling "availability heuristic" - most of Mullins' haven't been seen yet I say to myself over and over

[PresentingPercy]

Can't find where it was originally posted so hopefully members will know what I'm talking about. The Walk In The Park / Quevega gelding that Patrick Mullins was musing about in interviews earlier in the season has now been named - Facile Vega

[MTR]

Alright lads, I’ve got two tickets to ascot this Saturday in the Queen Anne enclosure, I won them on a competition, I can’t get down there now this weekend, wondered if anyone on here wanted them? No charge for them, can forward them via email. Cheers