General Chat

[charlie]

I think the reverse Charlie, and unload your ante post clip before they run and take the better prices. In the next month the prices will be tumbling when Willie in particular gets going.

I meant don't unload with a view to backing runners we've seen!!

[Spectre]

I meant don't unload with a view to backing runners we've seen!!

Ah get you!

[Saxon Warrior]

Lots of talk across the forum of people backing horses we've already seen so far.

Two interesting questions: What percentage of Cheltenham winners have we typically seen by this point of the year, and where were those horses trained?

I've taken 11 major races and answered these questions for the last 10 years (race - winners seen - British trained)

Supreme - 3 (Summerville Boy and Altior)
Arkle - 1 (Captain Chris)
Champion Hurdle - 1
Ballymore - 5 (Willoughby Court and The New One)
RSA - 3 (Blaklion, Might Bight and TOTG)
QMCC - 1 (Sire De Grugy)
Marsh - 5 (Taquin De Seuil and DDS)
Ryanair - 5 (Frodon, Uxizandre, Cue Card and Riverside Theatre)
Stayers - 5 (Lisnagar Oscar, Paisley Park, Cole Harden and More Of That)
Albert Bartlett - 4 (Kilbricken Storm and Brindisi Breeze)
Gold Cup - 3 (Synchronised)

30% of Cheltenham winners in the above races had run by this point of the year and 61% of those were British trained (22).

I've put the actual names in because it's interesting to note how many of these were older wins, and how few of these are in the last 2-3 years.

This is a fairly significant statistic IMO because when you factor in this, plus the Irish dominance (won 9/11 races above), it really makes you pause and think about backing British trained horses now that look temping, or Irish trained horses now that look tempting.

Ultimately, most of the best horses haven't run yet, plain and simple. So many horses have run that look very good in average company, but simply won't cut the mustard in March.

I suppose the flip side of the above is there are races where the British have done historically well and been out already where you can assess a horses profile and see how many boxes it ticks, which is useful up to a point.

It's interesting to look at how WPM, GE and HDB have done in these races. WPM has remained strong, with HDB obviously getting bigger, levelled out perhaps by Gordon's stable getting smaller, but they've had 45 out of the 110 winners here, between the three of them.

Supreme - 6
Marsh - 6
Arkle - 5
Ryanair - 5
Ballymore - 5
Champion Hurdle - 4
Gold Cup - 4
RSA - 3
Albert Bartlett - 3
QMCC - 2
Stayers - 2

Nothing I'm saying is new or information we don't already know, but its interesting IMO to see these numbers and think about what percentage of our ante post books carry British v Irish hopes.

Charlie

This is brilliant work.....thank you

It got me thinking of my Willie Mullins Diary and all the stats in there, and that I know he doesnt run his horses until mid-November, beginning at Punchestown this weekend.

I have followed your path, and got the following results

Current Number of Winners seen to date (in last 10 years)
Supreme 3
Arkle 1
Champion Hurdle 1
Ballymore 6
RSA 5
QMCC 1
Marsh 4
Stayers 5
A.Bartlett 5
Gold Cup 3

39 winners seen to date (over 10 year) out of 110 winners
20 GB winners seen to date
19 Irish Winners seen to date

Of the
20 GB Winners seen to date
4 were Nicky Henderson

Of the
19 Irish winners seen to date (in these races)
6 were Gordon Elliott
3 were Henry dB
1 was Willie Mullins (Penhill - had a Summer Novice Hurdling)

-----------------------------------------

Of the 71 winners NOT SEEN to Date
30 GB winners yet to be seen
41 Irish winners yet to be seen

Of the
30 GB winners yet to be seen
17 Nicky Henderson

Of the
41 Irish winners yet to be seen
29 Willie Mullins
5 Henry dB
0 Gordon Elliott (ZERO.....)

SUMMARY

The stark reality is, for these 11 races, over a decade.

Of the 71 horses we hadnt seen during the season to 8th November, that won these Festival races
46 of the are trained by Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins

They race plan differently to most everybody else.

46 of their 51 winners of these races (they won nearly half of these races for 10 years!!!)
Had not yet run in that season.

Willie Mullins
29 of his 30 winners in the last decade in these races, hadnt set foot on a racecourse yet in their Festival winning season
15 of Willies debuted in mid-to-end of November
10 debuted in December
4 were later (Penhill never ran b4 March, Annie Power Feb, Al Boum Photo 1st Jan twice)


Nicky Henderson
17 of his 21 winners in the last decade in these races, hadnt set foot on a racecourse yet in their Festival winning season.
7 of Nickys debuted in mid-to-end of November
9 of Nicks debuted in December
1 was later (Altior in Feb)

We know they are superstar trainers, and they dominate these 11 races.

We know (now, if not before) that 41 winners have flowed through them into these 11 races, from horses debuting in the NEXT month and a half, starting at Cheltenham/Punchestown this weekend.

Finally we had seen all of Gordon Elliotts 6 winners in these Grade 1 races by now, none debuted after this date, historically.
I am sure that will change for him before long - but it is heartening to anyone that has backed a Gordon Elliott horse in these races already.

Thank you Charlie, great work.

[Saxon Warrior]

Thanks Saxon. Remind me again, is the festival in March or April?

Lots of talk across the forum about backing horses we've already seen run and I wanted to point out that:

a) historically we haven't seen most winners yet (obviously 'most' come from the bottom list where I've attached no timeframe because they don't typically run yet)
b) a significant number of winners that have already run were British trained
c) we know that the British hand is significantly weaker now than it has been historically

We're on the same page Saxon - the big guns haven't released the big guns yet, so don't unload your ante post clip on runners we've seen people

Love it Charlie,

We are mos.def on the same page

[Irish Rugby]

Just a quick look on Oddschecker at the current favourites for each festival race priced up. American Mike in the Bumper is the first one you come to that's actually run so far this season. Then after that it's patchy at best to who has even run. Not many.

If you take the view that the season is October/November/December (the first part) and January/February March (the second part), we are only coming up to half way through the first part, about 25% way in. A bit obvious but needs to be stated.

Really good and thought provoking detail there by Charlie. Thanks.

[archie]

It got me thinking of my Willie Mullins Diary and all the stats in there, and that I know he doesnt run his horses until mid-November, beginning at Punchestown this weekend.

It's really good work, SW and Charlie. Thank you.

I'd be inclined to put the extra weekend just past in to the mix. In the last few years, Willie has had the likes of Footpad at Navan and Next Destination at Naas. Because of the way the weekends fell, it meant that Footpad, for instance, was the 12th November but it ought to still count in the stats.

As I've said elsewhere, the general point about Willie's late start date is valid and is perhaps likely to be even later this year because a few of his that have run have been below par so they are being selective with entries and declarations.

[charlie]

Charlie

This is brilliant work.....thank you

It got me thinking of my Willie Mullins Diary and all the stats in there, and that I know he doesnt run his horses until mid-November, beginning at Punchestown this weekend.

I have followed your path, and got the following results

Current Number of Winners seen to date (in last 10 years)
Supreme 3
Arkle 1
Champion Hurdle 1
Ballymore 6
RSA 5
QMCC 1
Marsh 4
Stayers 5
A.Bartlett 5
Gold Cup 3

39 winners seen to date (over 10 year) out of 110 winners
20 GB winners seen to date
19 Irish Winners seen to date

Of the
20 GB Winners seen to date
4 were Nicky Henderson

Of the
19 Irish winners seen to date (in these races)
6 were Gordon Elliott
3 were Henry dB
1 was Willie Mullins (Penhill - had a Summer Novice Hurdling)

-----------------------------------------

Of the 71 winners NOT SEEN to Date
30 GB winners yet to be seen
41 Irish winners yet to be seen

Of the
30 GB winners yet to be seen
17 Nicky Henderson

Of the
41 Irish winners yet to be seen
29 Willie Mullins
5 Henry dB
0 Gordon Elliott (ZERO.....)

SUMMARY

The stark reality is, for these 11 races, over a decade.

Of the 71 horses we hadnt seen during the season to 8th November, that won these Festival races
46 of the are trained by Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins

They race plan differently to most everybody else.

46 of their 51 winners of these races (they won nearly half of these races for 10 years!!!)
Had not yet run in that season.

Willie Mullins
29 of his 30 winners in the last decade in these races, hadnt set foot on a racecourse yet in their Festival winning season
15 of Willies debuted in mid-to-end of November
10 debuted in December
4 were later (Penhill never ran b4 March, Annie Power Feb, Al Boum Photo 1st Jan twice)


Nicky Henderson
17 of his 21 winners in the last decade in these races, hadnt set foot on a racecourse yet in their Festival winning season.
7 of Nickys debuted in mid-to-end of November
9 of Nicks debuted in December
1 was later (Altior in Feb)

We know they are superstar trainers, and they dominate these 11 races.

We know (now, if not before) that 41 winners have flowed through them into these 11 races, from horses debuting in the NEXT month and a half, starting at Cheltenham/Punchestown this weekend.

Finally we had seen all of Gordon Elliotts 6 winners in these Grade 1 races by now, none debuted after this date, historically.
I am sure that will change for him before long - but it is heartening to anyone that has backed a Gordon Elliott horse in these races already.

Thank you Charlie, great work.

Thanks Saxon - what a brilliant follow up! Makes for such interesting reading and highly informative.

[charlie]

I suppose the key question (given roughly 30% of winners have already run) is which winners do we think we have already seen so far?

Given a good number of that 30% are usually British, and we're shit, it's probably more like 15%.

Ok, so name 3 Cheltenham winners you think we may have already seen folks, and thats the real quiz....

The only three I can think of that we've see who'd have a realistic or semi-realistic chance are:

Stayers - Flooring Porter
NHC - The Bosses Oscar (hope in one hand, shit in the other, see which one fills up first)
MNH - Impervious*

This thread does properly slam home how awesome Willie is. He could have 5 better than Impervious without breaking sweat. Hope he doesn't.

[That Horse]

Ok, so name 3 Cheltenham winners you think we may have already seen folks, and thats the real quiz....

Maybe not a popular choice but I really liked Lifetime Ambition's run at Down Royal so going for;


Marsh - Lifetime Ambition
Bumper - American Mike
Something - Ontheropes


This has also made me think I should get Bravemansgame backed somehow also.

[doctorwu]

Maybe not a popular choice but I really liked Lifetime Ambition's run at Down Royal so going for;


Marsh - Lifetime Ambition
Bumper - American Mike
Something - Ontheropes


This has also made me think I should get Bravemansgame backed somehow also.

I liked Lifetimes performance but you'd have to be worried with the low hurdle rating going on to win a Marsh.

[Quevega]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VM_3-klzeF4

Ruby's 10 to follow - for competition purposes, but will interest some I'm sure.
Particularly like one of the youtube comments about him falling off them - (some bitter twisted nob heads around int there ?)

[Lobos]

Ok, so name 3 Cheltenham winners you think we may have already seen folks, and thats the real quiz....



3 certs...

Hollow Games - Albert Impervious - Novice Mares
Envoi Allen - Gold Cup

[Our_Duke]

My drogo? Albert My Drogo? - Novice Mares
My Drogo? - Gold Cup

[darlojim]

Ok, so name 3 Cheltenham winners you think we may have already seen folks, and thats the real quiz....



3 certs...

Hollow Games - Albert Impervious - Novice Mares
Envoi Allen - Gold Cup

Hollow Games, American Mike, Flooring Porter.

[DeeBee]

Hollow Games, American Mike, Flooring Porter.

Chantry House - Gold Cup
American Mike - Bumper
Fil Dor - Triumph