General Chat

[Istabraq]

What price would you expect ?
I'd reckon 3-1 ?

If you're lucky.
9/4 maybe 5/2
Max bet 40p....

[Bollinger]

What price would you expect ?
I'd reckon 3-1 ?

I specifically didn’t want to mention a price, in case they have traders as moles on here, but actually you’re about bang on. It’s knowing what Elliott has got in hand that no one knows of is the conundrum I feel. That’s why I wanted to add him to the request a bet - to see how skybet would react.
I think the 3/1 would be a very fair price, but that’s just my opinion.

I managed to get a very significant sun on the 2/5 they were offering on Ireland to win the prestbury cup, and was prepared to unload more the next day until the liabilities had it shortened to 1/4.

It’s why I’ve always maintained - every price has to be interpreted by each and every person as value or not, however “short” it may first appear.

2/5 on Ireland I felt was incredibly generous.

[Lbur4288]

As a ‘requestabet’ please.

As in ‘ all of the above events to happen, and one single price for the 4 events all to happen’.

Many thanks Lbur.

Bolly.

Sky and Hills both refused until "nearer the time"...

[Eggs]

….some ride by Rachel Blackmore on Mr Incredible at Naas.

[Big Bucks]

Only back from a day at football and few beers in the club after! Feel at a disadvantage as only checking results now and missed out on some festival clues! Anyone else feel you need to be on the ball near enough in running to back anything before it's slashed? I know some firms suspend when a horse races but some let you during the race, I'm assuming the weekends are the same as mid week?

[That Horse]

Only back from a day at football and few beers in the club after! Feel at a disadvantage as only checking results now and missed out on some festival clues! Anyone else feel you need to be on the ball near enough in running to back anything before it's slashed? I know some firms suspend when a horse races but some let you during the race, I'm assuming the weekends are the same as mid week?

You probably need to be backing just before the off as the bookies are so quick to overreact based on any kind of win lately.

With the novice hurdlers I'm at the point where I think fuck it, just wait and let them have a run and see how they take to them before taking a lower price if they've looked willing and able.

I was looking forward to seeing how Elle est belle ran the other day given her Cheltenham bumper run, but she didn't look a natural so that's the obvious risk we're taking on past performances in a different type of race.

[fatherjohn]

You probably need to be backing just before the off as the bookies are so quick to overreact based on any kind of win lately.

With the novice hurdlers I'm at the point where I think fuck it, just wait and let them have a run and see how they take to them before taking a lower price if they've looked willing and able.

I was looking forward to seeing how Elle est belle ran the other day given her Cheltenham bumper run, but she didn't look a natural so that's the obvious risk we're taking on past performances in a different type of race.

completely agree ref novice hurdlers..there are a lot with a big reputations and decent range of targets. 365 in particular seem quicker to push out as well and bring in prices. I am going to accept a lesser price and make a later decision on most novice hurdlers not named kilcruit

[That Horse]

completely agree ref novice hurdlers..there are a lot with a big reputations and decent range of targets. 365 in particular seem quicker to push out as well and bring in prices. I am going to accept a lesser price and make a later decision on most novice hurdlers not named kilcruit

It should make for great racing come March if they all are as good as their reputations suggest. Willie could have his own novice hurdle race away from the rest at this point

[ToniC]

Jack Kennedy got a suspected broken arm after his fall on wide receiver today, must be one of the unluckiest jockeys riding with injuries just can’t catch a break.

[Zachx02]

What a load of prats Unibet are, state of this https://twitter.com/UnibetRacing/sta...1798405

[Saxon Warrior]

What a load of prats Unibet are, state of this https://twitter.com/UnibetRacing/sta...1798405

They are the Edward Scissorhands of big price cuts as a rule

[charlie]

Lots of talk across the forum of people backing horses we've already seen so far.

Two interesting questions: What percentage of Cheltenham winners have we typically seen by this point of the year, and where were those horses trained?

I've taken 11 major races and answered these questions for the last 10 years (race - winners seen - British trained)

Supreme - 3 (Summerville Boy and Altior)
Arkle - 1 (Captain Chris)
Champion Hurdle - 1
Ballymore - 5 (Willoughby Court and The New One)
RSA - 3 (Blaklion, Might Bight and TOTG)
QMCC - 1 (Sire De Grugy)
Marsh - 5 (Taquin De Seuil and DDS)
Ryanair - 5 (Frodon, Uxizandre, Cue Card and Riverside Theatre)
Stayers - 5 (Lisnagar Oscar, Paisley Park, Cole Harden and More Of That)
Albert Bartlett - 4 (Kilbricken Storm and Brindisi Breeze)
Gold Cup - 3 (Synchronised)

30% of Cheltenham winners in the above races had run by this point of the year and 61% of those were British trained (22).

I've put the actual names in because it's interesting to note how many of these were older wins, and how few of these are in the last 2-3 years.

This is a fairly significant statistic IMO because when you factor in this, plus the Irish dominance (won 9/11 races above), it really makes you pause and think about backing British trained horses now that look temping, or Irish trained horses now that look tempting.

Ultimately, most of the best horses haven't run yet, plain and simple. So many horses have run that look very good in average company, but simply won't cut the mustard in March.

I suppose the flip side of the above is there are races where the British have done historically well and been out already where you can assess a horses profile and see how many boxes it ticks, which is useful up to a point.

It's interesting to look at how WPM, GE and HDB have done in these races. WPM has remained strong, with HDB obviously getting bigger, levelled out perhaps by Gordon's stable getting smaller, but they've had 45 out of the 110 winners here, between the three of them.

Supreme - 6
Marsh - 6
Arkle - 5
Ryanair - 5
Ballymore - 5
Champion Hurdle - 4
Gold Cup - 4
RSA - 3
Albert Bartlett - 3
QMCC - 2
Stayers - 2

Nothing I'm saying is new or information we don't already know, but its interesting IMO to see these numbers and think about what percentage of our ante post books carry British v Irish hopes.

[Saxon Warrior]

charlie

Willies stable doesnt start back properly until this weekend, usually.

Before that its only his summer horses that tend to carry on through Galway and the summer/autumn Festivals.

A huge amount of the missing horses in your list would be the Willie Mullins Winners.

Do you know how many? out of the remaining 74 Festival Winners that hadnt started out yet were trained by Willie Mullins?

I reckon it would be around 50%, and they all start to come out from Saturday onwards, with most of them running before Christmas.

[charlie]

charlie

Willies stable doesnt start back properly until this weekend, usually.

Before that its only his summer horses that tend to carry on through Galway and the summer/autumn Festivals.

A huge amount of the missing horses in your list would be the Willie Mullins Winners.

Do you know how many? out of the remaining 74 Festival Winners that hadnt started out yet were trained by Willie Mullins?

I reckon it would be around 50%, and they all start to come out from Saturday onwards, with most of them running before Christmas.

Thanks Saxon. Remind me again, is the festival in March or April?

Lots of talk across the forum about backing horses we've already seen run and I wanted to point out that:

a) historically we haven't seen most winners yet (obviously 'most' come from the bottom list where I've attached no timeframe because they don't typically run yet)
b) a significant number of winners that have already run were British trained
c) we know that the British hand is significantly weaker now than it has been historically

We're on the same page Saxon - the big guns haven't released the big guns yet, so don't unload your ante post clip on runners we've seen people

[Spectre]

We're on the same page Saxon - the big guns haven't released the big guns yet, so don't unload your ante post clip people

I think the reverse Charlie, and unload your ante post clip before they run and take the better prices. In the next month the prices will be tumbling when Willie in particular gets going.