General Chat

[Star De Mohaison]

Shan Blue out until the Spring

Just on Shane Blue, he got a RPR of 172 on Saturday. Looks a bit crazy to me and not in line with the rest of his performances. He's had 3 performances around 156/157.

[SamuelP]

Just on Shane Blue, he got a RPR of 172 on Saturday. Looks a bit crazy to me and not in line with the rest of his performances. He's had 3 performances around 156/157.

Blimey that seems steep. Chantry House must be a 180s horse then

[Odin]

Yeah I saw that and couldn't be having it - it would basically have made him a cert in the Ladbrokes at 24lbs well in! That said, they haven't given either Fusil Raffles (RPR 151 vs career best 161) or Kitty's Light (147 vs 150) career best RPRs so it doesn't quite as ridiculous when you consider that and they acknowledge it's difficult to give a rating as he was so far from home. FWIW, something in the range 160-165p would have seemed more appropriate to me (even though I know RPRs don't give p's).

[Istabraq]

Just on Shane Blue, he got a RPR of 172 on Saturday. Looks a bit crazy to me and not in line with the rest of his performances. He's had 3 performances around 156/157.

I think it was archie who raised this a few weeks back, you often get an anomaly somewhere when a young horse puts in a 130, 132, 131, 145 then 131, it suggests a significant overreaction to a good performance...

[Star De Mohaison]

Echoes In Rain Unibet Champion Hurdle Tuesday, March 15, 2022 1pt each-way at 14-1 with William Hill, 12-1 generally Welcome to the brand new Ante-Postman weekly newsletter. Admittedly it is a name I coined myself, but readers can rest assured I am aware of the core responsibility of a postman, delivering all manner of goodness including mail. In this series I will bid to deliver winning ante-post bets for Racing Post readers. I hope my musings bring a healthy level-stakes profit and some enjoyment along the way. It is far enough in advance to be suggesting an each-way bet on a Cheltenham Festival race with the majority of top-class horses yet to be seen this season. However, regardless of the time of year, if a horse's price is wrong the self-proclaimed Ante-Postman has no hesitation in playing and Echoes In Rain is too big a price at 14-1 with one firm for the Champion Hurdle. The Willie Mullins-trained five-year-old improved rapidly last spring, bolting up by 15 lengths in a Grade 2 novice at Fairyhouse before cosily landing the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown festival. Echoes In Rain learned to settle better as the season progressed and will surely be seen in all the top two-mile hurdle races this term with a chasing career not under consideration. She is due to reappear in the Morgiana Hurdle this month. Aside from Honeysuckle, the Champion Hurdle market is wide open. The unbeaten mare is the general 7-4 favourite, a price which is fair considering her dominance of the division in the last season and a half. The following three runners in the betting, Ferny Hollow, Appreciate It and Bob Olinger, were top-class novices last season and would merit their position in the market if they were remaining over hurdles. However, recent Racing Post Stable Tours (a crucial tool for punters) indicate the trio will be running over fences this season and Echoes In Rain is the unknown quantity in a division lacking depth. Sharjah and Epatante have had their chances in trying to dethrone Honeysuckle and the stage is set for a new kid on the block to climb through the ranks. In four of the last five years the Champion Hurdle has barely scraped together a double-figure field (anomaly 17 runners in 2020). Honeysuckle’s likely presence may see rivals shirking the challenge again and an each-way bet is advised in a race destined to cut up. Mullins isn’t one to run scared of a solitary rival and I expect Echoes In Rain to lead his charge for the two-mile hurdling crown in March. She should be a single-figure price.

Just has the above email sent to me from the RP, not seen it before. Looks like another way the bookies will shorten selections through the winter. Apologies for the format

[archie]

I think it was archie who raised this a few weeks back, you often get an anomaly somewhere when a young horse puts in a 130, 132, 131, 145 then 131, it suggests a significant overreaction to a good performance...

It was in relation to Telmesomethinggirl in the MNH. It's a major issue with RPR because it stays in the best RPR column and warps future ratings. Of all the private rating systems, RPR is, in my view, the least reliable.

[FinalFurlong91]

Just on Shane Blue, he got a RPR of 172 on Saturday. Looks a bit crazy to me and not in line with the rest of his performances. He's had 3 performances around 156/157.

The race completely fell apart he definitely wasn't going to run anywhere near 172

[TigerRolllllll]

Off to Hendos Thursday …..not been before

Any Qs think should ask?

[Kevloaf]

Off to Hendos Thursday …..not been before

Any Qs think should ask?

How far would Sprinter Sacre have beaten Altior by?

[Atlantic Viking]

Off to Hendos Thursday …..not been before

Any Qs think should ask?

Is there any novice hurdler at the yard he doesn't think could be 'special' or 'top class'?

Erm, an actual question. He wont answer of course but worth a try... if he had to pick IAM or Jonbon as his sole dart at the Supreme, which would he go with?

[Topofthegame2021]

Off to Hendos Thursday …..not been before

Any Qs think should ask?

If Jonbon is Supreme bound and Chantry House is the yards Gold Cup horse pretty please with a cherry on top!!

[jack1092]

Was wanting to consult the great minds of the FJF before i let fly on Act of God in the Pertemps quali on Saturday.

He's 138 and i'd give him a right chance of being good enough off that sort of mark. My concern is will he be trying. Race is worth feck all but he's fit and been on the go for a while, so im trying to decide whether they'll be taking adv of his fitness edge, or getting him qualified, and off on his winter holidays.
Presumably if he won, he'd need to be winning off the same mark or near as Presenting Percy did, which i don't imagine he'd be up to.

Anyone gotta view?

Quevega you often come up with logical views on these types of things....go on

[opatcho]

Off to Hendos Thursday …..not been before

Any Qs think should ask?

How did you get a pass, tempted to go next year

[Brooksie]

Is there any novice hurdler at the yard he doesn't think could be 'special' or 'top class'?

Erm, an actual question. He wont answer of course but worth a try... if he had to pick IAM or Jonbon as his sole dart at the Supreme, which would he go with?

I own 1 share in Blue Stello with the owners group, so if any of his novice hurdlers this year aren't top class that will probably be the one

[Outlaw]

Yeah I saw that and couldn't be having it - it would basically have made him a cert in the Ladbrokes at 24lbs well in! That said, they haven't given either Fusil Raffles (RPR 151 vs career best 161) or Kitty's Light (147 vs 150) career best RPRs so it doesn't quite as ridiculous when you consider that and they acknowledge it's difficult to give a rating as he was so far from home. FWIW, something in the range 160-165p would have seemed more appropriate to me (even though I know RPRs don't give p's).

Only would of been a cert if he'd of stayed(don't think he would of in something like a Hennessey), I'd given him 168 Sat was putting up a clear career best and was doing good work on the clock despite the rest of the field not running to their ratings that's more to do with some of them not staying well enough(30l slower than the 0-120 Cd hcap last off from 3 out, even accounting for strong tempo that's some stamina doubts right there for those finishing (Fusil I'm looking at you) Kitty ran as well as could have been expected and feck knows what Clondaw was doing bar a run out.

Will have to see how and when he remerges but the Betway Bowl would interest me for Shan this season.