General Chat

[Saxon Warrior]

40/1 with cash out if that helps

40/1 with cashout is fair enough.

[Faugheen_Machine]

To have any chance he needs to improve his jumping

I rewatched the race the other day and minella indo was making ground at every fence

A plus tard was too slow away from his fences, which also cost him in the previous years ryanair

Yep. He fiddled plenty in the GC and I also think Rachel was riding the race to beat ABP. Had she ignored the fav I think he might just have won, regardless of his minor jumping errors

As things went, he was only one (maybe two) clean jumps away from winning the gold cup imo. He's still young enough and deserves another crack.

I usually ignore those that have tried and failed before but he's one that I really like. There's definitely room for a little improvement and it'll only require marginal gains here and there.

[charlie]

The beauty of this forum, having a pre-determined view changed by knowledgable members.

Re Chantry House I’ll make a very ignorant comment but I think he’ll fall short of top table, he make take one or two good contests over here but when the Irish battalion land I think he’ll be short.
No solid argument why just a personal view but I’d be happy to be educated and proved wrong…

Agree with this 100%.

[ComplyOrDie]

I know I keep beating the same drum but anyone who fancies Monkfish to win the Gold Cup just can't ignore Elimay. Monkfish rated 163 and Elimay rated 155. Take into account the 7lb Mares allowance and there's 1lb between them. She looks like she'll stay all day long so the step up will suit. We know she handles Cheltenham and the big occasion, she jumps for fun and she's as game as they come. 6/1 v 40/1. No more comments your honour.

I have a few of issues with this. It's easy to compare ratings against prices and come up with a bet, but it's rarely that simple.

Firstly, course form, Monkfish is 2 from 2 at Cheltenham, Elimay is 0 from 2, whichever way you want to spin it, i.e. the Colreevy form line which I'll come to later.

Secondly, distance, Monkfish has not just won twice at the course, but also both times being over 3m, which leaves him with a lot less to prove than Elimay, who won a weak Mares Chase at Fairyhouse over 2m 5f, the furthest she has run to date.

Thirdly, there is nothing to suggest, in Elimays breeding, that she'll get the Gold Cup trip.

Gave Allaho a fright who murdered them in Ryanair. Easily beat Mount Ida who won at the fez from an impossible position. Smashed Black Tears who won the Mares Hurdle and just got pipped by Colreevy who beat Monkfish out of sight. Just an incredible list.

Form lines, on the Colreevy one, first off Monkfish had a fairly long and tough season prior to that run, and secondly Colreevy's breeding suggested she'd be better suited to a longer trip anyway, so the fact she outbattled Elimay at Cheltenham over shorter is more a nod to how game and good Colreevy is than to how good Elimay is, IMO. On the Mount Ida form line, again, her breeding definitely suggests she'll be better suited over further, and duly obliged at the festival over 3m 2f, but she was hammered by Colreevy the race before that win over 2m 4f, yet only just over 2 lengths down from Elimay at Fairyhouse over an almost identical inadequate trip.

I rarely knock a 40/1 poke, but Elimay has a fair amount of questions to answer for me before I even consider her a Gold Cup runner, let alone the prospect of being competitive in one.

[BigChaang]

Hi all,

My latest blog has been posted. It’s all about analysing the antepost favourites for the grade ones on the Thursday & Friday.

You can read it as below:

https://racinghighlights.art.blog/2021/08/24/a-favourites-chance-thursday-friday/

Good read , interesting . Topofthegame . Thank's.

[Lobos]

COD, re Mount Ida, do you think she'll end up in the Mares Chase or do you think that'll be too short for her ?

[SharpHat]

As already stated i dont fancy Chantry house for the GC at all, but looking through the betting for the King George he's widely 10/1 thats got to be worth a shout, given that the best of the Irish are likely to stay at home.

Id much rather take 10s in the KG than 20s in the GC

[ComplyOrDie]

COD, re Mount Ida, do you think she'll end up in the Mares Chase or do you think that'll be too short for her ?

Too short a trip, IMO. That said, it does depend how weak the race ends up, as even a race that isn't an ideal trip for a horse sometimes class can get them through it, I.e. Colreevy.

I think you have made a good case for Annie MC, who you've spoken about previously, I think, despite the Cheltenham form, has a right chance against her own sex, should she actually make it this time around.

[Lobos]

Too short a trip, IMO. That said, it does depend how weak the race ends up, as even a race that isn't an ideal trip for a horse sometimes class can get them through it, I.e. Colreevy.

I think you have made a good case for Annie MC, who you've spoken about previously, I think, despite the Cheltenham form, has a right chance against her own sex, should she actually make it this time around.

Agree that MI will struggle over 2 1/2 . Not sure what else she could go for though ? Annie Mc won't beat Elimay but if that one doesn't turn up or she has a bad day then Annie can take advantage.

[FinalFurlong91]

Wish I'd noticed earlier to get more people on but burning victory just dotted up in France at 3/1 in a flat handicap

I sprinted down to the local hills to get 5pts on and even got the two blokes in there to have a few quid on

I was flicking through the deauville races and couldn't believe my eyes when it said WP Mullins next to the fav

Horrible aftertiming i know but thats just paid for a good few Cheltenham bets and im buzzing haha

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Talking of France and The Gold Cup earlier, I'd love to see Le Berry (David Cottin) come over and compete. He's a great jumper and has only been beaten once over fences when contesting the Grand Steeplechase de Paris over 3m6f on heavy going. Currently rated 79.0 (kg) he would surely have a chance if given the opportunity??

[Saxon Warrior]

Wish I'd noticed earlier to get more people on but burning victory just dotted up in France at 3/1 in a flat handicap

I sprinted down to the local hills to get 5pts on and even got the two blokes in there to have a few quid on

I was flicking through the deauville races and couldn't believe my eyes when it said WP Mullins next to the fav

Horrible aftertiming i know but thats just paid for a good few Cheltenham bets and im buzzing haha

Yep, she was in total control, reinvested some of the race win, back on the Ces.

[Zachx02]

Talking of France and The Gold Cup earlier, I'd love to see Le Berry (David Cottin) come over and compete. He's a great jumper and has only been beaten once over fences when contesting the Grand Steeplechase de Paris over 3m6f on heavy going. Currently rated 79.0 (kg) he would surely have a chance if given the opportunity??

I think it was more to do with the fact he'd never gone that distance rather than the heavy ground, albeit I'd like more french trainers to come over with their horses and Le Berry is definitely one who I'd be interested in seeing. Another being L'Autonomie for the stayers or Mares hurdle perhaps

[Fouroverthrutwo]

I think it was more to do with the fact he'd never gone that distance rather than the heavy ground, albeit I'd like more french trainers to come over with their horses and Le Berry is definitely one who I'd be interested in seeing. Another being L'Autonomie for the stayers or Mares hurdle perhaps

L'autonomie's form is seriously impressive. It would be great to see her in the Stayers.

[Zachx02]

L'autonomie's form is seriously impressive. It would be great to see her in the Stayers.

Yep, Just a pity the prize money isn't enticing enough for them to give it a shot. That decimation in the French Champion Hurdle is absolutely ridiculous, 30 Lengths ahead of 2nd place