General Chat

[Big Bucks]

Only noticed as Kev mentioned sky returned their Nrnb non runners! So bit of heads up for anyone looking to top up elsewhere!

I see Sky have also went 1/5 5 places aswell now. They have really tightened up thier markets though!!

Now PP do the same so I can just give you it back on something else, thanks!


EDIT - THEY HAVE!!

[Atlantic Viking]

Anyone on Shishkin concerned about Nicki's recent form? I know I am.

I wouldn't say concerned, but he's a negative in my mind when weighing up the Energumene challenge. I'm probably more concerned about Henderson recently, hard to avoid the feeling he's losing the plot a bit. Still neither make me want to switch from Shishkin.

This got me thinking, so I just had a look at Hendersons strike rate (UK & IRE) which is 22.37% for Jan-Dec 2020, although 18.3% for the last 12 month period, but which is probably an unfair way to look at things.
In any case, when you compare Jan-Dec figures, you have to go back to 2005 (16.9%) to find the last time he dropped below 20% (generally ranges low to mid 20's, with a best of 28% in 2018).
Other years below 20% were 2002 (18.75%) and 2004 (15.9%). So on that 'evidence', given the 2020 figure, nothing noteworthy. But when you break it down by month, looking at January of each year as the fairest way at this point:

Jan 2021: 17.24% (58 runners)
Jan 2020: 24.68% (77)
Jan 2019: 33.33% (60)
Jan 2018: 33.33% (60)
Jan 2017: 38.46% (52)
Jan 2016: 23.68% (38)
Jan 2015: 26.32% (57)
Jan 2014: 27.03% (37)
Jan 2013: 21.57% (51)
Jan 2012: 27.27% (88)
...you get the idea!
Interestingly, again you have to go back to 2005 to find the last time he had a January under 20% - 15.15% (33). The only other being 2003 (16.98% (53))

So using the years mentioned above, is there any correlation between them and Henderson festival wins? No, 2005 comes up with 3 wins which compares perfectly well with the years that have 4 more races. There were no winners in 2003 or 2004, but nor were there in 2 years with normal year strike rates and strong Januarys: 2007 (Jan 33.33%) and 2008 (Jan 35.19%)

2020: 4 (1 handicap winner) (28 races)
2019: 4 (2 handicaps) (28)
2018: 2 (28)
2017: 3 (28)
2016: 2 (28)
2015: 1 (27 +1 charity race)
2014: 1 (1 handicap) (27 +1)
2013: 4 (1 handicap) (27 +1)
2012: 7 (2 handicaps) (27 +1)

2005: 3 (2 handicaps) (First 4 day festival, 24 races)
2004: None (20)
2003: None (20)
2002: 1 (1 handicap) (20)

So what have we learnt? Absolutely nothing and I apologise for making you read through all that if for some reason you did, there's almost no reason whatsoever for me posting it other than i've spent about 45mins i'll never get back and felt I had to.

[Big Bucks]

Money back in with PP, one was a free bet, nothing back for it, take it that's a goner?

[Kevloaf]

Money back in with PP, one was a free bet, nothing back for it, take it that's a goner?

Yeah I think so. Maybe if you went on the chat they might re-instate... it seems like something they wouldn't do automatically IMO?

I think I recall getting some returned from Sky once...but I can't be sure, and even if I did it's not that relevant

[Atlantic Viking]

Money back in with PP, one was a free bet, nothing back for it, take it that's a goner?

Firms normally have terms where you get the free bet back if the time in question falls within the original expiry date, otherwise, you don't. With Sky you get them back as there's no expiry.

Edit: In NRNB land anyway!

[Kevloaf]

Firms normally have terms where you get the free bet back if the time in question falls within the original expiry date, otherwise, you don't. With Sky you get them back as there's no expiry.

Ah that would make sense

Love the 45 minutes worth of inconclusive evidence... that is genuinely what this place is built upon

[delsie777]

Just a heads up for anyone who fancies BLUE LORD - fancied in the Novice Hurdles and as low as 8/1 for The County Hurdle. Hills still have him at 14/1 any race for those who are interested. It probably wont last.

[Dandrew99]

Money back in with PP, one was a free bet, nothing back for it, take it that's a goner?

I appear to have a free bet returned from Aramax which I wasn't expecting!

[Big Bucks]

I appear to have a free bet returned from Aramax which I wasn't expecting!

Will maybe get onto them then

[nortonscoin200]

Just a heads up for anyone who fancies BLUE LORD - fancied in the Novice Hurdles and as low as 8/1 for The County Hurdle. Hills still have him at 14/1 any race for those who are interested. It probably wont last.

Cheers Delsie - love it, I'm on board .

[Spectre]

I wouldn't say concerned, but he's a negative in my mind when weighing up the Energumene challenge. I'm probably more concerned about Henderson recently, hard to avoid the feeling he's losing the plot a bit. Still neither make me want to switch from Shishkin.

This got me thinking, so I just had a look at Hendersons strike rate (UK & IRE) which is 22.37% for Jan-Dec 2020, although 18.3% for the last 12 month period, but which is probably an unfair way to look at things.
In any case, when you compare Jan-Dec figures, you have to go back to 2005 (16.9%) to find the last time he dropped below 20% (generally ranges low to mid 20's, with a best of 28% in 2018).
Other years below 20% were 2002 (18.75%) and 2004 (15.9%). So on that 'evidence', given the 2020 figure, nothing noteworthy. But when you break it down by month, looking at January of each year as the fairest way at this point:

Jan 2021: 17.24% (58 runners)
Jan 2020: 24.68% (77)
Jan 2019: 33.33% (60)
Jan 2018: 33.33% (60)
Jan 2017: 38.46% (52)
Jan 2016: 23.68% (38)
Jan 2015: 26.32% (57)
Jan 2014: 27.03% (37)
Jan 2013: 21.57% (51)
Jan 2012: 27.27% (88)
...you get the idea!
Interestingly, again you have to go back to 2005 to find the last time he had a January under 20% - 15.15% (33). The only other being 2003 (16.98% (53))

So using the years mentioned above, is there any correlation between them and Henderson festival wins? No, 2005 comes up with 3 wins which compares perfectly well with the years that have 4 more races. There were no winners in 2003 or 2004, but nor were there in 2 years with normal year strike rates and strong Januarys: 2007 (Jan 33.33%) and 2008 (Jan 35.19%)

2020: 4 (1 handicap winner) (28 races)
2019: 4 (2 handicaps) (28)
2018: 2 (28)
2017: 3 (28)
2016: 2 (28)
2015: 1 (27 +1 charity race)
2014: 1 (1 handicap) (27 +1)
2013: 4 (1 handicap) (27 +1)
2012: 7 (2 handicaps) (27 +1)

2005: 3 (2 handicaps) (First 4 day festival, 24 races)
2004: None (20)
2003: None (20)
2002: 1 (1 handicap) (20)

So what have we learnt? Absolutely nothing and I apologise for making you read through all that if for some reason you did, there's almost no reason whatsoever for me posting it other than i've spent about 45mins i'll never get back and felt I had to.

It may have seemed like a waste of time but it wasn’t, because it takes away doubts, or illogically avoiding Henderson horses. I’d say it was 45 minutes well spent, so thanks.

[robith]

Anyone on Shishkin concerned about Nicki's recent form? I know I am.

Nah - all season no matter whatever pickle Hendo has gotten himself into that week Shiskin has been an absolute picture

[Liverpoolchamp]

I hate to sound well amateur but is the French lad on Easyland able to still come over and ride? Is he professional or amateur?

[ryanh97]

I hate to sound well amateur but is the French lad on Easyland able to still come over and ride? Is he professional or amateur?

Very good question actually. I'm sure many would be interested to know...

[Liverpoolchamp]

Very good question actually. I'm sure many would be interested to know...

Ye just got me thinking if he is or not,my guess is that he is professional,as surely riding a favourite someone in the media would have dug this info out by now!?