General Chat

[Kevloaf]

Not quite the six figures, but a very hefty 5 figure sum.

Here’s hoping the dawn of jumps racing is about to witness the ‘Messi/Ronaldo’ era.

I’m backing them to be just so.

If you were starting fresh, as of today, with nothing else on now.... how much do you have to stake to win a hefty 5 figure sum?

You are disregarding injury as if they can't just because "two" have got injured so far. First of all, that figure of "two" is not reliable, validated or particularly relevant!


You'd need to risk so much money, and it may get taken away from you without even running.


You may (and I very, very, very much stress HOPE) get lucky and they both make it their targets. It'll be horrible if one has any set back.



The year Faugheen was going for the CH and Annie Power was going for the Mares and she got injured is comparable. They both looked absolutely bomb proof...and I believe they both would have won their targets. Annie ended up winning a tougher race and Faugheen would have walloped her, so would have won too IMO. The Faugheen injury was so tough to take. It was 'unlucky' but I was able to recover and record a profitable festival because that wasn't make or break?

Having just one or two horses means you need good luck, or to avoid bad luck.... and that's why people will rightly argue it's not good smashing into short price horses ante post. I don't see why you can't see people would disagree they are not currently 'incredible prices'.... I



I hope you do win 6 figures from them, you must have invested well into 4 figures so far to get to that point?

[Pendil]

Anybody else having a problem accessing the novice chase thread. I am getting a "you are not authorised" message

[Run4Home]

Anybody else having a problem accessing the novice chase thread. I am getting a "you are not authorised" message

Same issue yeh

[ryanh97]

Anybody else having a problem accessing the novice chase thread. I am getting a "you are not authorised" message

Same here.

[Kevloaf]

Quack.
Quack.
Quack.


I accidentally deleted a 'topic' rather than 'post' - just looking at how to bring it back

Sorry chaps.

You all got shit to say about the Arkle all of a sudden?

[jack1092]

Quack.
Quack.
Quack.


I accidentally deleted a 'topic' rather than 'post' - just looking at how to bring it back

Sorry chaps.

You all got shit to say about the Arkle all of a sudden?

Hard to please these fellas Kev isn't it. haha.

Maybe people are trying to hide from this thread where we are hearing about some "incredible prices".......One thing that murders forums for me.

GL with your prices Envoy, i do really hope they come in and make a difference to you, it can just be a little tedious reading these kind of things on the regular.

[Kevloaf]

I'd be lost without them. Talking to myself....

Should have got it working now......

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-jockey-horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-festival-2021/254007-arkle-marsh-rsa-nh-chase-novice-chasers-2021-new/page77#post257054

[Quevega]

Just some thoughts I’d like to share on my last few weeks of reading people’s points of view here on what constitutes ‘value’ 3 months out from the festival (and even more so, from the many poor videocasts you see on YouTube that are appearing regularly now).

I’m going to take as reasonable as neutral view and position as I can regards this, as i have made no secret of the fact that Shishkin and Envoi Allen (as both singles and a double) were my absolute very first bets I put on for next year’s festival, the very day after this year’s finished (Shishkin available at 5/1, Envoi Allen available at 7/1 for their Arkle/Marsh markets that they both now find themselves available at 6/4 and 11/10).

Now, 364 days before the next years festival is a long way out. We’ll all agree with that. But is there anyone here who thinks that those 5/1 and 7/1 (lasted for a week after, plenty of time for people to have a little nibble) were going to stay around for a while,or even better, lengthen??
The 2 horses aforementioned have spent the large majority of the Summer grazing away, going for the odd canter and being treated to a few light schooling’s - all whilst their prices have steadily eroded, and eroded, and eroded, and eroded, and eroded until..........

........ their first maiden run over their new discipline.

They go off very short odds on (we don’t know for sure they can jump well, but all evidence coming out of their yards suggest that they can, and do so alarmingly well.

They then win their maiden races over fences, and then their prices for Cheltenham erode, and erode and.....well, you get the idea.

And now I switch on either to the written press, blogs, YouTube videos, the whole range of views, and I just keep reading/hearing they’re both ‘stinky’ prices. And????

Why didn’t you do anything about it on the 12th March earlier this year when the prices weren’t so stinky, and, all things considered, incredible value compared to those as of today.

Why does any of this matter, and what’s my point generally?

It’s this. Yes, a lot can now happen to these two horses (and every ante post selection) between the 1st December and 16th March next year. But here’s the caveat - between the day after last year’s festival and today as I wrote now, in which both Shishkin and Envoi Allen have contracted from 5/1 & 7/1 to 6/4 & 11/10 - how many horses of note, that were possibly in people’s diaries and books have so far been ruled out of next year’s festival?

I can think of 2. Aramon and TopoftheGame. Just the 2.

Yes, there’s others like Wholestone and a clutch of others, but hardly any of note that have been posted that were genuinely in people’s books.

And yet in the time it’s taken for 2 of the the leading fancies either side of the Irish Sea to have shortened over over 80% of their post Cheltenham ante post price this year, we’ve ‘lost’...... just 2 horses of note that would have feasibly been of note in people’s books.

I am not denying for a single moment that Shishkin nor Envoi Allen might not make the festival due to injury, but that will now happen from prices of 6/4 and 11/10, not prices that were readily available 8 months back when they were going to enjoy a nice Summer of frolicking in their stables and the odd canter and schooling session here and there.

I’ll reiterate - only 2 horses of any reasonable note, which might have been fancied, have been declared to miss the rest of the season during the time it took 2 of the biggest potential superstars of jumps racing to see their prices shorten to ‘unbackable’ 3 months out.

Surely, every punter who’s having a good whinge right now might bare that in mind come 20th March next year, when trying to assess their thoughts and fancies for 2022.

Or is it just me?

I'm not sure what you're overall point is, to be fair.
Especially with regards the Out of the Festival statistics. There will be shit loads to come, I'm sure.

It comes across as a little self gratifying.

It's a bit like you being sat at the back of a Bus, looking out the back window as it pulls away, and seeing someone running to catch it but failing, and after they exclaim, with a red face and sweaty brow "For fuck sake I've missed the Bus". You pop open the window and say "should have been here on time mate".

It does ring a bell with me about betting immediately after horses win at the festival, as I don't think I've ever done it. For some reason I don't like the knee jerk element of both the market, and my decision making. But aside from the Champion hurdle possibility, these 2 pretty much were quite obvious. And therefore you (and many others) made some good investments for sure.

And I agree that most posters should not simply moan about price cuts, as it is just a part of ante-post betting.

But I think most posters comment on the shorter prices in relation to them not being fully justified, or that the new price does not reflect the true market value. And opinions will vary on this.

Many prices will shorten even further prior to the festival, but the actual race day prices are often better (than say, a few days before), as the market is much more fluid and rich after declarations, and bookmaker competition is vastly higher.

These 2 horses definitely come priced at a premium and are not priced up fairly IMO.
However, they have massive potential to be very much shorter come the day itself, so I can see the other angle for sure.

[Topofthegame2021]

A quick question - Do Betway have any association with the Henderson yard? (I know unibet do but wasnt sure if Betway do too)

I only ask because they go 12/1 on Dusart for the Supreme - most of the others are 16/1.

[BigChaang]

Managed to get Tickets for Plumpton next Monday .... Fingers crossed nothing goes array
re - having spectators back until then

[Jorvik]

Managed to get Tickets for Plumpton next Monday .... Fingers crossed nothing goes array
re - having spectators back until then

Good stuff Anyone who is planning on going racing over the next couple of weeks know what the craic is with regards to getting a pint, being able to bet with bookies on course? i.e. can you?!

[charlie]

Good stuff Anyone who is planning on going racing over the next couple of weeks know what the craic is with regards to getting a pint, being able to bet with bookies on course? i.e. can you?!

Matt Chapman was saying on ITV on the weekend that one bookmaker is allowed per 150 punters. Not sure about the pints though

[Jorvik]

Matt Chapman was saying on ITV on the weekend that one bookmaker is allowed per 150 punters.

Interesting, I wonder what the usual ratio is typically. Certainly seems to be a lot more bookies per punter than that at pretty much every 'normal' midweek racing i've ever been to! You'd think it'd make sense for distancing purposes to have more rather than less. Potentially pretty decent for those lucky few books though.

[Istabraq]

Good stuff Anyone who is planning on going racing over the next couple of weeks know what the craic is with regards to getting a pint, being able to bet with bookies on course? i.e. can you?!

No pints sadly, law says they can only serve alcohol with a meal so only with hospitality bookings can you drink.
As said above the ratio for bookie permitted on course is 1 per 150.
It’ll be a different experience for sure but with the vaccine being rolled out imminently let’s hope it’s for a short period only and normality can return...

[EnvoyAllen]

If you were starting fresh, as of today, with nothing else on now.... how much do you have to stake to win a hefty 5 figure sum?

You are disregarding injury as if they can't just because "two" have got injured so far. First of all, that figure of "two" is not reliable, validated or particularly relevant!


You'd need to risk so much money, and it may get taken away from you without even running.


You may (and I very, very, very much stress HOPE) get lucky and they both make it their targets. It'll be horrible if one has any set back.



The year Faugheen was going for the CH and Annie Power was going for the Mares and she got injured is comparable. They both looked absolutely bomb proof...and I believe they both would have won their targets. Annie ended up winning a tougher race and Faugheen would have walloped her, so would have won too IMO. The Faugheen injury was so tough to take. It was 'unlucky' but I was able to recover and record a profitable festival because that wasn't make or break?

Having just one or two horses means you need good luck, or to avoid bad luck.... and that's why people will rightly argue it's not good smashing into short price horses ante post. I don't see why you can't see people would disagree they are not currently 'incredible prices'.... I



I hope you do win 6 figures from them, you must have invested well into 4 figures so far to get to that point?

Though I don’t really wish to re emphasise my train of thought, I’ve tried to highlight this - how many horses, of all those that don’t make it to the festival the following year (from the day the festival finishes to the eve of the next one) get injured and are ruled out in the first six months (mid March to mid September) compared to the next 6 months, and even more specifically, post Christmas?

At a reasonable guess, I’d say no more than 20% at an absolute push, suffer injuries in those first six months post festival that rule them out of the following year’s festival, compared to 80% that get ruled out due to racing injuries sustained once the National Hunt season gets going properly at the beginning of October.


My point???


In the time it’s taken for just a few names TopoftheGame,Aramon and a few less select others ) to be be ruled out, we’ve seen the prices for Envoi Allen and Shishkin to shorten by well over 50%, and of course many other market leaders too. And yes, I too had a little dabble on Princess Zoe at 50/1, but we all I think it’s fair to say took a speculative punt that she’d be a Cheltenham course, not go on to win the Cadran and solidify her status and value post career at stud.

Based on the percentage of horses that actually miss the folllowing years’s festival from March to September, (and I can’t give any figures, but we all would all know the very large majority get ruled out after Christmas), would it not be good judgment therefore to take those really early prices for horses knowing a) they are only going to shorten, and b) the likelihood of them missing the next years festival through those Summer months whilst the prices shorten as we nibble at them, is actually very low and the odds are specifically in our favour.


For each and every one of us to win on a horse at Cheltenham ante post, we need 3 things to happen. There are 3 variables -

1)We have to place our bet and put our money down, not knowing the final outcome.

2) That selection has to make it to Cheltenham.

3) (Bypassing each way in this instance) That horse has to win their race

And yet, in the instances of variables 2) and 3) every single punter has 0% influence in the outcome of those variables. 0%.

For the very first variable, every single punter has 100% influence, and nothing less than 100%.


And so all I can do, and every other punter can do, is work out what selections they want and at what time approaching the festival they want to select and out their money down. Am I self gratifying myself that I got what now look exceptional prices on two of the very leading lights for this season’s National Hunt? Maybe I am. I have no idea. But based on never really noticing on any National Hunt horses being injured for the following seasons festival during the previous Summer, coupled with the fact that most leading horses in their markets (I was absolutely sure these two would dramatically) meant it was a simple and easy choice to go big and go early on them.

Even one week ago today (and it was) the 225/1 on Shishkin to win the Champion Chase and Envoi Allen to win the Gold cup (both in 2022) seemed ridiculous value for any half knowledgable punter. It’s about 95% certain that Shishkin’s race for 2022 will be the Champion Chase and with Gordon Elliott’s consistent comments that ?400,000 was spent on Envoi Allen as a Gold Cup horse and that (as he quoted following the Drinmore on Sunday) “he go’s 2 miles,2 and a half, 3 miles no problem. Watch him in a truly run race and then you’ll see the real horse......”, it’s fair to suggest that he’ll be trained specifically for the Gold Cup in 2022.

And yet someone suggested less than a week ago that ‘the bookies must have saw you coming’ when I mentioned the 225/1 was available, and considered it very sound value.

A week later, where does that price stand up now?? 66/1. They obviously saw a few more people coming as well as me....... (William Hill offering 33/1).


So it’s not about trying to control the ‘100% uncontrollable’ variables that ‘could’ affect your bet, with the chances still in your favour.

Its about controlling the one single variable that only any punter can - the price for your selection. Get in, get out and hope for good luck.