General Chat

[charlie]

But, how come you don't think the arkle looks particularly deep ?

I have only backed a few of the Irish and will be opposing Shishkin, so I hope everything you've said in the rest of your post materialises and the race develops into a deep race, but its not particularly deep at the moment is it? Look at the market. 7/4 fav, Sharjah and Envoi Allen who both wont go, then basically a long list of 20/1+ shots. I hope the race has a completely different complexion in a months time and suspect it will, my post is simply in response to the horses the OP mentioned - put Shishkin, Envoi Allen, Epatante in order of preference as bankers - I think the Arkle looks the least deep at the moment. Time might render that view redundant, it was just a view now.

[Spectre]

1. Easysland
2. Envoi Allen
3. Epatante

Easysland surely has the easiest task doesn’t he? What’s going to beat him other than injury or the obstacles?

Envoi Allen is a monster, and while you’d be less sure about credible competition than we can be with Easysland, there is hardly a list of high profile candidates queuing up.

Epatante has the comfortable measure of anything that wasn’t a novice last season. That leaves us with Goshen, Saint Roi, and Abacadabras, and none have so far put in a performance that would have me too worried.

The others I considered are Shishkin, Benie, and Honeysuckle.

Shishkin should also win, but I suspect he has a tougher task than the other three. There have been a number of viable candidates out already this season, and Klassical Dream hasn’t yet, but his Supreme win was on par with Shishkin’s and he’s had an extra season too mature. I worry about him for Shishkin. He could also jump like a pig and/or show his temperament issues, but we haven’t seen him yet so he remains a prime candidate.

I can’t put the two mares in because there are too many doubts about their targets.

[Topofthegame2021]

Hi Guys, off topic but I didn’t know where to post it. What do the orange bars under peoples names mean? A couple appeared under mine and I had no clue what they were?

[Jorvik]

Hi Guys, off topic but I didn’t know where to post it. What do the orange bars under peoples names mean? A couple appeared under mine and I had no clue what they were?

If you've got some orange it means you're on the roster of top drawer Grade 1 posters, so welcome to the club . If you haven't got any it means you're a Monday 0-45 level poster and should leave immediately for a flat racing forum, if anyone has ever cared enough to make one. That's what the mods told me on the secret forum anyway.

[Can't Catch Me]

If you've got some orange it means you're on the roster of top drawer Grade 1 posters, so welcome to the club . If you haven't got any it means you're a Monday 0-45 level poster and should leave immediately for a flat racing forum, if anyone has ever cared enough to make one. That's what the mods told me on the secret forum anyway.

6 orange bars mean you are in the elite level of poster. Any more or less and you are just short of top class.

[Topofthegame2021]

If you've got some orange it means you're on the roster of top drawer Grade 1 posters, so welcome to the club . If you haven't got any it means you're a Monday 0-45 level poster and should leave immediately for a flat racing forum, if anyone has ever cared enough to make one. That's what the mods told me on the secret forum anyway.

Haha great thanks

[Kevloaf]

Hi Guys, off topic but I didn’t know where to post it. What do the orange bars under peoples names mean? A couple appeared under mine and I had no clue what they were?

They're linked to members 'reputation' - which is affected by various factors behind the scenes. There are criteria in background that affect your influence, which affects what each 'like' you give and receive is worth, amoungst other things.


To be perfectly honest, I don't think it adds a lot, but equally, it's not doing any harm as far as I can tell.



I can change all the parameters for them, and what each level means, and how 'hard' it is to reach each level...but they're all just on the default so far....and I haven't put any time or thought into changing them.

I'd be closer to just switching them off, they're a bit misleading

[Topofthegame2021]

6 orange bars mean you are in the elite level of poster. Any more or less and you are just short of top class.

6 orange bars is the goal then!

[EnvoyAllen]

Just some thoughts I’d like to share on my last few weeks of reading people’s points of view here on what constitutes ‘value’ 3 months out from the festival (and even more so, from the many poor videocasts you see on YouTube that are appearing regularly now).

I’m going to take as reasonable as neutral view and position as I can regards this, as i have made no secret of the fact that Shishkin and Envoi Allen (as both singles and a double) were my absolute very first bets I put on for next year’s festival, the very day after this year’s finished (Shishkin available at 5/1, Envoi Allen available at 7/1 for their Arkle/Marsh markets that they both now find themselves available at 6/4 and 11/10).

Now, 364 days before the next years festival is a long way out. We’ll all agree with that. But is there anyone here who thinks that those 5/1 and 7/1 (lasted for a week after, plenty of time for people to have a little nibble) were going to stay around for a while,or even better, lengthen??
The 2 horses aforementioned have spent the large majority of the Summer grazing away, going for the odd canter and being treated to a few light schooling’s - all whilst their prices have steadily eroded, and eroded, and eroded, and eroded, and eroded until..........

........ their first maiden run over their new discipline.

They go off very short odds on (we don’t know for sure they can jump well, but all evidence coming out of their yards suggest that they can, and do so alarmingly well.

They then win their maiden races over fences, and then their prices for Cheltenham erode, and erode and.....well, you get the idea.

And now I switch on either to the written press, blogs, YouTube videos, the whole range of views, and I just keep reading/hearing they’re both ‘stinky’ prices. And????

Why didn’t you do anything about it on the 12th March earlier this year when the prices weren’t so stinky, and, all things considered, incredible value compared to those as of today.

Why does any of this matter, and what’s my point generally?

It’s this. Yes, a lot can now happen to these two horses (and every ante post selection) between the 1st December and 16th March next year. But here’s the caveat - between the day after last year’s festival and today as I wrote now, in which both Shishkin and Envoi Allen have contracted from 5/1 & 7/1 to 6/4 & 11/10 - how many horses of note, that were possibly in people’s diaries and books have so far been ruled out of next year’s festival?

I can think of 2. Aramon and TopoftheGame. Just the 2.

Yes, there’s others like Wholestone and a clutch of others, but hardly any of note that have been posted that were genuinely in people’s books.

And yet in the time it’s taken for 2 of the the leading fancies either side of the Irish Sea to have shortened over over 80% of their post Cheltenham ante post price this year, we’ve ‘lost’...... just 2 horses of note that would have feasibly been of note in people’s books.

I am not denying for a single moment that Shishkin nor Envoi Allen might not make the festival due to injury, but that will now happen from prices of 6/4 and 11/10, not prices that were readily available 8 months back when they were going to enjoy a nice Summer of frolicking in their stables and the odd canter and schooling session here and there.

I’ll reiterate - only 2 horses of any reasonable note, which might have been fancied, have been declared to miss the rest of the season during the time it took 2 of the biggest potential superstars of jumps racing to see their prices shorten to ‘unbackable’ 3 months out.

Surely, every punter who’s having a good whinge right now might bare that in mind come 20th March next year, when trying to assess their thoughts and fancies for 2022.

Or is it just me?

[Kevloaf]

I haven't read it all yet as I'm just about to drive back to work, but on skimming through, you're data sample of just 2 horses so far this season is just not a fair reflection on ante-post value finding.

Off the very top of my head, Princess Zoe backers, Flinteur Sacer backers.... add to the two ruled out that you've mentioned that people will feel hard done by..... so essentially, "we" have just got lucky that the three best novice hurdlers last season have all looked good so far. That is more an exception than it is the normal.



I'll read it all when I can, but I think I disagree with the overall point you're making as the data sample is too small to be so conclusive about.


You may be fighting a losing battle though, as essentially no-one is going to give you credit for thinking Shishkin and Envoi Allen were good bets. Everyone knows who they are, almost everyone will win on them, so it might just fall on deaf ears


Fair play for getting your views out there

[Saxon Warrior]

2020_ONOR358 (hri-ras.ie)

Just added in the National Hunt thread the Navan Card of entries for Saturday, includes some top horses, one is Easywork, who I noted a couple of days ago could only run in this race between last weekend and Boxing Day, although its only over 2M1F, as there are no mid-trip or 3M novice chases in the whole of Ireland for horses who have won a beginners chase, and are/were rated 140+ over hurdles.

Its no wonder Irish trainers with a decent winner in a beginners Chase say that "we'll find something at Christmas"........as they know there isnt anything until then

[Dandrew99]

Haha great thanks

Still a few bars better than some of us noobies...

EA, I don't think you're particularly wrong, but I think we are in a fairly rare situation of having two horses as exciting as Shishkin and Envoi. Obviously a hell of a lot has gone right since you put those bets on, Envoi's price obviously would have been shorter had his target been obvious, there was every chance that he could have gone RSA and you'd be sat on nothing. I'd also say that it feels like we have been fairly lucky injury wise this year in general, plus there is that whole pandemic thing which makes this year even more unpredictable.

Value for me is simple. If you have a horse that you'd expect to win a race 50% of the time, then anything over evens is value. If there is only a 50% chance that that horse will go to that race, then anything over 3/1 is value. If that race happens to be in 364 days time, so there is a 50% chance that they'd get injured, or change their mind, then anything over 7/1 is value.

Looking back to March, I thought Envoi would win whatever race he wanted to. Even the mares, who cares but I thought his target would be the RSA, I did back for that and I was wrong. 7/1 was clearly value for you because you thought it was his likely target, it wasn't for me because I thought he was more likely to go RSA.

Shishkin is a hell of a lot better than I thought he would be. Not that I didn't rate him, but I didn't think he would even be in the same conversation as Envoi when it comes to class. Did I think Shishkin was going to be the next Altior? No. Clearly you rated him more highly than I did, hence why he was value to you but not to me.

Maybe the moral of this story is just that I'm not very smart

[Saxon Warrior]

Still a few bars better than some of us noobies...

EA, I don't think you're particularly wrong, but I think we are in a fairly rare situation of having two horses as exciting as Shishkin and Envoi. Obviously a hell of a lot has gone right since you put those bets on, Envoi's price obviously would have been shorter had his target been obvious, there was every chance that he could have gone RSA and you'd be sat on nothing. I'd also say that it feels like we have been fairly lucky injury wise this year in general, plus there is that whole pandemic thing which makes this year even more unpredictable.

Value for me is simple. If you have a horse that you'd expect to win a race 50% of the time, then anything over evens is value. If there is only a 50% chance that that horse will go to that race, then anything over 3/1 is value. If that race happens to be in 364 days time, so there is a 50% chance that they'd get injured, or change their mind, then anything over 7/1 is value.

Looking back to March, I thought Envoi would win whatever race he wanted to. Even the mares, who cares but I thought his target would be the RSA, I did back for that and I was wrong. 7/1 was clearly value for you because you thought it was his likely target, it wasn't for me because I thought he was more likely to go RSA.

Shishkin is a hell of a lot better than I thought he would be. Not that I didn't rate him, but I didn't think he would even be in the same conversation as Envoi when it comes to class. Did I think Shishkin was going to be the next Altior? No. Clearly you rated him more highly than I did, hence why he was value to you but not to me.

Maybe the moral of this story is just that I'm not very smart

It was a year with the potential for two start novice chasers to emerge, thats all.

In a normal year Aintree and Punchestown would have shot down a few Cheltenham winners within 6 weeks, and new horses would have headed the markets (Chacun Pour Soi went from 25/2 to around 5/2 for the Champion Chase in May 2019 with a win at Punchestown).

[EnvoyAllen]

I haven't read it all yet as I'm just about to drive back to work, but on skimming through, you're data sample of just 2 horses so far this season is just not a fair reflection on ante-post value finding.

Off the very top of my head, Princess Zoe backers, Flinteur Sacer backers.... add to the two ruled out that you've mentioned that people will feel hard done by..... so essentially, "we" have just got lucky that the three best novice hurdlers last season have all looked good so far. That is more an exception than it is the normal.



I'll read it all when I can, but I think I disagree with the overall point you're making as the data sample is too small to be so conclusive about.


You may be fighting a losing battle though, as essentially no-one is going to give you credit for thinking Shishkin and Envoi Allen were good bets. Everyone knows who they are, almost everyone will win on them, so it might just fall on deaf ears


Fair play for getting your views out there

They remain incredible prices I have. And with a life changing amount of money 3 months from the reckoning.

[EnvoyAllen]

Not quite the six figures, but a very hefty 5 figure sum.

Here’s hoping the dawn of jumps racing is about to witness the ‘Messi/Ronaldo’ era.

I’m backing them to be just so.