General Chat

[ComplyOrDie]

It's only a good price if he goes Ryanair/doesn't lose between now and then

If he takes on el fabiolo he'd be that price on the day

Then you have the injury factor

If he stays over 2m taking on El Fabiolo then he'll likely be unbeaten over 2m that season and will not be going off 3/1 on the day, not a chance, especially if he improves and puts in big figures like he did in the Arkle.

Injury factor already noted, but that affects every ante post bet, so you either get stuck in early or wait it out, but this is something the majority on here are very aware of.

I think he'll go off shorter wherever he ends up, unless he's been absolutely stuffed a couple of times during the season, in which case he may not even end up at the festival anyhow.

[Lobos]

Anyone remember what injury Energumene picked up and have info on his recovery?

[Stormez]

Anyone remember what injury Energumene picked up and have info on his recovery?

Was a hind leg injury, this is from January……

https://m.attheraces.com/news/2024/January/14/energumene-will-be-given-all-the-time-he-needs-to-return-to-his-best

[Lobos]

Was a hind leg injury, this is from January……

https://m.attheraces.com/news/2024/J...rn-to-his-best

Brilliant. Thanks Stormez.

Sounds like they expect him to fully recover which is good news.

Have backed him anyway today for the Ryanair as the 25/1 with Corals/Ladbrokes just looked 'wrong'.

He obviously could go CC again but with El Fabiolo and GW on the scene something has to give.

[Liammet]

Brilliant. Thanks Stormez.

Sounds like they expect him to fully recover which is good news.

Have backed him anyway today for the Ryanair as the 25/1 with Corals/Ladbrokes just looked 'wrong'.

He obviously could go CC again but with El Fabiolo and GW on the scene something has to give.

I fell into the 10 year old trap in the Ryanair this year with Envoi Allen

And as much as I love Energumene I can’t back an 11 year old coming off an injury

Appreciate if he recovers fully and ends up here the 25s would be each way value

[Ice]

Paddy got a few any race prices up, not many and i wouldn't be rushing to have a look ! it's in specials if anyone is interested.

[Kevloaf]

I'm amazed at how many people are backing things now


Should we all go back and look at profit / loss for the last few festivals and check what month we placed the most bets, which months have been most profitable and how many horror bets we'd actually end up with


Book building is different to normal punting and I appreciate that, but if I know I'll have the full book and wouldn't consider starting this early then I'm surprised at how many bets I'm seeing.... especially on things without 'certain targets'



Not calling anyone out in particular - I'm just a bit shocked .... I think it's a bit dangerous and the fact I'm having to resist FOMO means others may be, and I think generally bets being placed now will either be BAD, or not worth it this far out. Decs for Aintree would be more interesting for ante post the year after, and even that's flakey as shit

[Ballybeen]

Paddy got a few any race prices up, not many and i wouldn't be rushing to have a look ! it's in specials if anyone is interested.

Ballyburn 8/15 is ridiculous.

[Exar Essay]

I'm amazed at how many people are backing things now


Should we all go back and look at profit / loss for the last few festivals and check what month we placed the most bets, which months have been most profitable and how many horror bets we'd actually end up with


Book building is different to normal punting and I appreciate that, but if I know I'll have the full book and wouldn't consider starting this early then I'm surprised at how many bets I'm seeing.... especially on things without 'certain targets'



Not calling anyone out in particular - I'm just a bit shocked .... I think it's a bit dangerous and the fact I'm having to resist FOMO means others may be, and I think generally bets being placed now will either be BAD, or not worth it this far out. Decs for Aintree would be more interesting for ante post the year after, and even that's flakey as shit

I hear you Kev, but in my opinion (and this is a hugely debatable topic) prices are disappearing quicker than ever and some of the pricing has been very fair this time round.

I completely agree that it's worth waiting about those without certain targets and it's something I've actually managed this time around (so far ). I also agree that some are way to short already and 99% of horses will be beat at some point in the season - so most shorties will be longer at some point.

But I think there has been some very generous pricing this time round. Gerri Colombe at 25/1 and Fastorslow at 33/1 both of which looked far too big. Gaelic Warrior was 14/1 with PP for a while after the Arkle even after Willie had muttered the 2-miles might be his trip response. Arkle winners and QMCC winners .... I still think Constitution Hill is massive at 2/1 for having a runny nose. The Mares Hurdle market was all wrong with Lossie propping everyone up even those she's odds against to even end up there (although that is starting to correct now). Even some of the novice races had some exotic prices; Caldwell Potter (BANC) 33/1, Impaire Et Passe (Arkle or Turners) 20/1 ...

I think there's enough out there this time to spend on if you chose wisely. That's not to say the waiting game won't pay equally as well if not better as a few (particularly Dandrew) proved this year.

[Quevega]

Probably be wary of race changes also.
I doubt they'll do the radical changes required but we might lose one or two.

If I was in charge though we'd lose the Turners the Gallaghers, NH Chase, Ryanair, Mares hurdle and Mares Chase. And Kim Muir.

Probably be voided but would impact other races I reckon.
Imagine if the Turners is turned into a handicap for example, and they remove the NH chase - then the domino effect this would have would impact plenty of bets.

[DenmanSacre]

I'm amazed at how many people are backing things now


Should we all go back and look at profit / loss for the last few festivals and check what month we placed the most bets, which months have been most profitable and how many horror bets we'd actually end up with


Book building is different to normal punting and I appreciate that, but if I know I'll have the full book and wouldn't consider starting this early then I'm surprised at how many bets I'm seeing.... especially on things without 'certain targets'



Not calling anyone out in particular - I'm just a bit shocked .... I think it's a bit dangerous and the fact I'm having to resist FOMO means others may be, and I think generally bets being placed now will either be BAD, or not worth it this far out. Decs for Aintree would be more interesting for ante post the year after, and even that's flakey as shit

Interested to see how backable the winners of the non handicaps were in March of the previous year to see if making an early decision is beneficial.

2024

Supreme - Slade Steel - had won one bumper against 2 Mullins horses but I doubt anyone was picking him for the Supreme this time last year.

Arkle - Gaelic Warrior - no one would have picked the Arkle

Champion Hurdle - State Man - maybe backed if you're doing a book and looking at CH potentially going chasing.

Mares Hurdle - Lossiemouth - very pickable but doubt she was much of a price.

NHC - Corbett's Cross - not sure anyone was putting him up for it.

Gallaghers - Ballyburn - decent price this time last year and definitely pickable.

BANC - Fact to File - I think we thought FTF was going hurdling?

CC - Captain Guinness - maybe put up if going for the book approach but not sure anyone would have put him up as a serious chance.

Turners - Grey Dawning - no chance

Ryanair - Protektorat - not sure anyone would have put him forward

Stayers - Teahupoo - very pickable.

Mares Novice - Golden Ace - no chance

AB - Stellar Story - picked by Jackie.

Gold Cup - Galopin - reigning champ

Mares Chase - Limerick Lace - second in a graded novice against Journey for Me last March. Fair play if anyone picked her out.


If you picked one per race last March, you may have got some of them to be fair and been in profit.

2023

Supreme - Marine Nationale - no chance

Arkle - El Fabiolo - possible but we had CH, Jonbon Appreciate It, Dysart Dynamo

Champion Hurdle - Constitution Hill - very pickable

Mares - Honeysuckle - pretty sure everyone thought she was going Champion Hurdle again

NHC - GDM - very pickable if you risked him not winning the Irish National

Ballymore - Impaire et Passe - no chance

BANC - The Real Whacker - no chance

CC - Energumene - very backable

Turners - Stage Star - not sure anyone was picking him

Ryanair - Envoi Allen - not sure he was pickable

Stayers - Sire du Berlais - if you picked him, he would have been bigger on the day

Mares Novice - YWIW - not pickable

AB - Stay Away Fay - doubt he was in the betting after winning one PTP

GC - Galopin - very backable

Mares Chase - Impervious - not sure she would have been picked after going off 22/1 in the MNH and finishing 6th


I think picking horses for 2024 in 2023 was easier than the previous year based on numbers and likely prices available (mainly due to Teahupoo and Ballyburn being decent prices this time last year).

The question is how many are picking one per race and picking the right horse. Are the prices available just after the festival actually any better than waiting until October and ensuring they've got through the summer ok? I'm not too sure.

[Nwfb89]

Probably be wary of race changes also.
I doubt they'll do the radical changes required but we might lose one or two.

If I was in charge though we'd lose the Turners the Gallaghers, NH Chase, Ryanair, Mares hurdle and Mares Chase. And Kim Muir.

Probably be voided but would impact other races I reckon.
Imagine if the Turners is turned into a handicap for example, and they remove the NH chase - then the domino effect this would have would impact plenty of bets.

I agree about the nh chase going the brown advisory was terrible numbers wise this year wasn't it, if I was to get rid of a novice hurdle race I'd want the bartlett gone and then have the gallaghers moved to the new course

[Lobos]

I fell into the 10 year old trap in the Ryanair this year with Envoi Allen

And as much as I love Energumene I can’t back an 11 year old coming off an injury

Appreciate if he recovers fully and ends up here the 25s would be each way value

Was no trap with Envoi. Ran a superb race and would have been a very good winner again without Protektorat falling into the race late. Put all the others to bed very easily. Energumene is fairly lightly raced so not your usual milage for an 11 yo.

[Kevloaf]

I hear you Kev, but in my opinion (and this is a hugely debatable topic) prices are disappearing quicker than ever and some of the pricing has been very fair this time round.

I completely agree that it's worth waiting about those without certain targets and it's something I've actually managed this time around (so far ). I also agree that some are way to short already and 99% of horses will be beat at some point in the season - so most shorties will be longer at some point.

But I think there has been some very generous pricing this time round. Gerri Colombe at 25/1 and Fastorslow at 33/1 both of which looked far too big. Gaelic Warrior was 14/1 with PP for a while after the Arkle even after Willie had muttered the 2-miles might be his trip response. Arkle winners and QMCC winners .... I still think Constitution Hill is massive at 2/1 for having a runny nose. The Mares Hurdle market was all wrong with Lossie propping everyone up even those she's odds against to even end up there (although that is starting to correct now). Even some of the novice races had some exotic prices; Caldwell Potter (BANC) 33/1, Impaire Et Passe (Arkle or Turners) 20/1 ...

I think there's enough out there this time to spend on if you chose wisely. That's not to say the waiting game won't pay equally as well if not better as a few (particularly Dandrew) proved this year.

Lossiemouth isn't propping up any market, the percentages wouldn't back that up AND there is no way she's nailed on to skip the race. Respectfully I'd suggest you've not been following long enough if you think them dating she's going CH means she is. Only take 1 defeat and they'll change their tune.

Gaelic At 14s ... target not certain.

Win only punters won't care about Gerri or Fastorslow ... if you have 1 bet in the race. I could see me having them each way but that's just not something I'm worried about but we know we've got a dual champion and sexy novices


I honestly think people need to have a really, really hard think before placing a bet. More than ever.

[Istabraq]

Alot of hate for the NH Chase, but this race has existed for 160+ years and Browns Advisory 75+ years so I don't buy the view that the presence of both dilutes anything.
20 years ago both races had 20+ runners, for me it can only be the inception of the Turners that has diluted other races.
The current festival is a result of expansion, it's not getting any smaller and has every chance of getting bigger, so I think we need to live with what it looks like and accept the challenges it brings to us as punters...