General Chat

[ComplyOrDie]

I’m finding it really difficult to find the likely Mullins runner in the NH chase this year. I like minella cocooner for it but we need an update on his wellbeing before backing him.
He has so many stayers to juggle it’s almost impossible to call at this stage. Any of these could be his runner, some will be targeted at the banc or turners.

- minella cocooner
- champ kiely
- embassy gardens
- the nice guy
- Nick rockett
- quais de paris

I looked at The Nice Guy, and just thought he had too much speed for the NH Chase, no doubt the 'class' for it though Also, a bit like Minella Cocooner, we need an update on his well being.

Not keen on Embassy Gardens or Quais De Paris though. Nick Rockett is of interest but I'm hoping he ends up being one for the Brown Advisory, so at this stage have discounted him.

It is a very difficult task this year. Won't be long until the stable tour, then we should hopefully know more.....or not

[Istabraq]

I’m finding it really difficult to find the likely Mullins runner in the NH chase this year. I like minella cocooner for it but we need an update on his wellbeing before backing him.
He has so many stayers to juggle it’s almost impossible to call at this stage. Any of these could be his runner, some will be targeted at the banc or turners.

- minella cocooner
- champ kiely
- embassy gardens
- the nice guy
- Nick rockett
- quais de paris

I always thought it would be this lad, but 30f might not be far enough....

[Kautostar]

I’m hoping Nick rockett is his banc horse but the comments made by Patrick about him being more of a grade 2 horse has me concerned that he wants him to be his NH chase ride.
I’ve covered Champ Kiely in the TWAR market as I feel he will go either the turners or banc route but still covered if the many on here are right in the NH chase. He’s a perfect TWAR bet.

Minella cocooner and the nice guy I’m waiting for updates before deciding what to do. The 12/1 TWAR for MC is a poor price imo.
Embassy garden’s I’m not sure would be good enough and maybe a big staying hcap could be his target.

[FinalFurlong91]

Given his injury problems I'd imagine the nice guy will be kept to hurdles

[Lobos]

Word is the festival will consist of 28 Hurdle races in 2025

[Lobos]

I looked at The Nice Guy, and just thought he had too much speed for the NH Chase, no doubt the 'class' for it though Also, a bit like Minella Cocooner, we need an update on his well being.

Not keen on Embassy Gardens or Quais De Paris though. Nick Rockett is of interest but I'm hoping he ends up being one for the Brown Advisory, so at this stage have discounted him.

It is a very difficult task this year. Won't be long until the stable tour, then we should hopefully know more.....or not

Reading the above COD, from that list you are left with....

Champ Keily.........

[Spectre]

Some food for thought on Salvador Ziggy's run yesterday. There was a general feeling if he'd won yesterday he would have to be considered a Brown Advisory horse rather than a NH Chase horse.

So if Desertmore House hadn't got in yesterday Ziggy would have been regarded as though he's won like a Brown Advisory horse?! However, Elliott advised Brassil to travel because he was pulling one of his own, and if he hadn't Desertmore House would have been stood in his box and not in the race. A great example of how big things can sometimes hinge on small decisions.

Salvador Ziggy probably now gets 3-5lbs instead of 7-8lbs now, and whichever way round he is still the same horse. And whilst in graded races that doesn't matter, in handicaps it does. But it does matter from a punting assessment in a graded race. If Ziggy had a 158 (OR or RPR) rating against at best horses that hit the low 150's he'll be regarded as a good thing. But off 153, with perhaps 2 or 3 horses in the race off similar marks, is he still a good thing? What is he a 153 horse or a 158 horse?

The answer is the same horse would win whatever the ratings say, and it's our job to figure it out. This is essentially a good example of why I believe learning the ability to rate horses yourself, alongside form study and race reading are vital. While the handicappers tend to be one-dimensional in their approach, being able to differentiate by creating your own general ratings and under the specific conditions, and then comparing them to the one given by the OR's and RPR's is a significant advantage.

For what it's worth, I think he's run to a much higher level than the rating the handicapper is likely to give him. I think he'll get 153, but I rate that run at 156. For context, since the race was upgraded to a Grade 2, only Gaillard du Mesnil has achieved that figure beforehand, as a very experienced second season Willie Mullins horse, that had previously been contesting G1 novice chases. Ziggy is already there and has time to improve on it. So for me something needs to come out of the woodwork and be a Grade 1 horse in disguise to beat him. So, in my opinion with what we know now, and despite being cut to 8/1, his price is still one of the most generous prices in all of the Festival antepost markets.

[ComplyOrDie]

Reading the above COD, from that list you are left with....

Champ Keily.........

Already given my reasons previously why I'm not backing Champ Kiely for the race.

[Lobos]

Already given my reasons previously why I'm not backing Champ Kiely for the race.

Keep searching

I've got one in mind . Not Mullins or Gordon. Not priced up anywhere yet. Going to hang on in there for some big figures.

[ComplyOrDie]

So for me something needs to come out of the woodwork and be a Grade 1 horse in disguise to beat him. So, in my opinion with what we know now, and despite being cut to 8/1, his price is still one of the most generous prices in all of the Festival antepost markets.

Yeah, I wouldn't be too far off this after yesterdays performance, and in turn started adding some multiples with him in last night.

I'll probably continue to do so until the bookmakers realise he should probably be less than a 5/1 shot for the race, but even then I'm thinking there's some value in there.

[Black Dog]

Yeah, I wouldn't be too far off this after yesterdays performance, and in turn started adding some multiples with him in last night.

I'll probably continue to do so until the bookmakers realise he should probably be less than a 5/1 shot for the race, but even then I'm thinking there's some value in there.

Unibet have already clicked.

[Lobos]

Also Cut to 16/1 with Hills for BANC.

[HoldenTheReins]

Not sure if they are going chasing by maybe Shanbally Kid and Seabank Bistro?

A lot left to be desired with those though.

[darlojim]

Any news on the OJA release date? Surely any day now

[fatherjohn]

Any news on the OJA release date? Surely any day now

latest update from this week

"The plan is to pack orders over the weekend and start sending out at the beginning of next week (Monday 25th September)."