General Chat

[HesTheOne]

Must say I'm a little surprised he's been chopped 13 points by PP for the race. Somebody must like him or he's been tipped up somewhere?

Yea considerable cut, be interesting to look back over some of Paddy Powers big price swings from Dandrew99 odds checker data to see we’re they always on the right call with moves like this.

[Zachx02]

Don't buy any of the PP cuts after them cutting redemption day last year to draw punters in for him to get announced as OFTS a few hours later

[Saxon Warrior]

They did say he hung right at Cheltenham yes but that hasn't stopped Willie running others with that tendancy at the course again and again so I wouldn't be worried. It wasn't obvious anyway? It's also another reason why I fancy him more over the NHC distance as I think it could be more of a disadvantage in a Turners or Branch where things will be happening that much quicker. I think he's slightly below the required level of those two races anyway.

Must say I'm a little surprised he's been chopped 13 points by PP for the race. Somebody must like him or he's been tipped up somewhere?

It would only taken part few ft GJ to cut a Festival horse at this time of year.

[Lobos]

It would only taken part few ft GJ to cut a Festival horse at this time of year.

Have you been drinking Sax??

[OverTheLast]

Have you been drinking Sax??

He's absolutely right.

[Spectre]

For those that like a trend and believe trainers are creatures of habit Lobos is spot on.

The horses most likely to go to the National Hunt Chase from the Willie Mullins yard are those that previously placed in the Ballymore or Bartlett. All of Mullins last three winners when that route, and if you add in Carefully Selected during the same period, who unseated as 10/11 favourite, you only have Lord Royal as an outlier in a year when he had nothing suitable. This change in approach from Mullins coincided with the cut in trip and the race being upped in grade.

Based on his usual MO Willie will send Champ Kiely to the National Hunt Chase and his price is worth having onside with cashout.

[Exar Essay]

Based on his usual MO Willie will send Champ Kiely to the National Hunt Chase and his price is worth having onside with cashout.

Given his injury last year, couldn't you throw in Cocooner on that basis too?

[Lobos]

He's absolutely right.

Is the post in Spanish?

[callhimgamblor]

Is it just me or is the PP festival futures markets all showing Ballymore 2024 then the actual race... bit odd. Think I'll back away until they fix that..

[Eggs]

Is it just me or is the PP festival futures markets all showing Ballymore 2024 then the actual race... bit odd. Think I'll back away until they fix that..

…yep, bit of an IT glitch by the look of it.

[Benjy23]

Maybe a good opportunity to back something in the Supreme or Bartlett and later claim you thought it was the Ballymore

[Spectre]

Given his injury last year, couldn't you throw in Cocooner on that basis too?

Potentially EE. His season out would bother me though. Also previous stable comments have suggested he'd be more likely to go back in trip than up. I would see him as a Turners type, The Nice Guy as a Brown Advisory or Stayers horse, and Champ Kiely as the National Hunt Chase Horse. In fact this is how I see his possible novice chasers next season if they're all fit an well:

Inpaire Et Passe - Champion Hurlde
Gaelic Warrior - Stayers
Mister Policeman - Arkle
Hercule De Seuil - Arkle (or bypasses altogether)
Facile Vega - Arkle/Turners
Hunters Yarn Arkle/Turners
Minella Cocooner - Turners
Fact To File - Turners/Brown Advisory
The Nice Guy - Brown Advisory
Nick Rockett - Brown Advisory
Champ Kiely - National Hunt Chase

I'll be keeping half an eye on Grangeclare West too. I think they were struggling to get him right all season, but the combination of that much improved run at Punchestown and a switch to fences makes him of interest again.

I'm sure others will have different views from those above, but it always makes for good debate, and can be both interesting and amusing to look back at how right and wrong we get it.

To some degree it feeds into the novice yankee thread too, where I would be avoiding novice hurdlers, and I'd be picking Willie's Arkle and Browns horses, and debating the Turners and National Hunt Chase between Willie, Gordon, and any other lively contenders.

[BookieBasher]

Potentially EE. His season out would bother me though. Also previous stable comments have suggested he'd be more likely to go back in trip than up. I would see him as a Turners type, The Nice Guy as a Brown Advisory or Stayers horse, and Champ Kiely as the National Hunt Chase Horse. In fact this is how I see his possible novice chasers next season if they're all fit an well:

Inpaire Et Passe - Champion Hurlde
Gaelic Warrior - Stayers
Mister Policeman - Arkle
Hercule De Seuil - Arkle (or bypasses altogether)
Facile Vega - Arkle/Turners
Hunters Yarn Arkle/Turners
Minella Cocooner - Turners
Fact To File - Turners/Brown Advisory
The Nice Guy - Brown Advisory
Nick Rockett - Brown Advisory
Champ Kiely - National Hunt Chase

I'll be keeping half an eye on Grangeclare West too. I think they were struggling to get him right all season, but the combination of that much improved run at Punchestown and a switch to fences makes him of interest again.

I'm sure others will have different views from those above, but it always makes for good debate, and can be both interesting and amusing to look back at how right and wrong we get it.

To some degree it feeds into the novice yankee thread too, where I would be avoiding novice hurdlers, and I'd be picking Willie's Arkle and Browns horses, and debating the Turners and National Hunt Chase between Willie, Gordon, and any other lively contenders.

Any ideas or interest in Embassy Gardens? Or is he a horse that you don’t see making much of an impact next season and therefore won’t be on the boat over?

[Exar Essay]

Potentially EE. His season out would bother me though. Also previous stable comments have suggested he'd be more likely to go back in trip than up. I would see him as a Turners type, The Nice Guy as a Brown Advisory or Stayers horse, and Champ Kiely as the National Hunt Chase Horse. In fact this is how I see his possible novice chasers next season if they're all fit an well:

...

Fact To File - Turners/Brown Advisory

I don't disagree and think trainer comments indicate MC will step back in trip if anything. But when watching him race, I always thought he stayed on nicely and didn't look to want a lesser trip. Your interesting stat re Ballymore/AB placed horses going on to become NHC runners for Willie made me reconsider my initial views.

Interesting re your placement of FTF. Do you think Willie will go through with his suggestion of skipping a season in Novice Hurdles with him? He's threatened it a few times recently e.g. Gunner Yeats, Madmansgame etc. but hasn't gone through with it for a long while now.

[JackieMoon33]

Potentially EE. His season out would bother me though. Also previous stable comments have suggested he'd be more likely to go back in trip than up. I would see him as a Turners type, The Nice Guy as a Brown Advisory or Stayers horse, and Champ Kiely as the National Hunt Chase Horse. In fact this is how I see his possible novice chasers next season if they're all fit an well:

Inpaire Et Passe - Champion Hurlde
Gaelic Warrior - Stayers
Mister Policeman - Arkle
Hercule De Seuil - Arkle (or bypasses altogether)
Facile Vega - Arkle/Turners
Hunters Yarn Arkle/Turners
Minella Cocooner - Turners
Fact To File - Turners/Brown Advisory
The Nice Guy - Brown Advisory
Nick Rockett - Brown Advisory
Champ Kiely - National Hunt Chase

I'll be keeping half an eye on Grangeclare West too. I think they were struggling to get him right all season, but the combination of that much improved run at Punchestown and a switch to fences makes him of interest again.

I'm sure others will have different views from those above, but it always makes for good debate, and can be both interesting and amusing to look back at how right and wrong we get it.

To some degree it feeds into the novice yankee thread too, where I would be avoiding novice hurdlers, and I'd be picking Willie's Arkle and Browns horses, and debating the Turners and National Hunt Chase between Willie, Gordon, and any other lively contenders.

Has there been any word on if Fact To File will go chasing and skip hurdling?