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I'd made a mental note this year to avoid the handicap hurdles, except from the Pertemps. I feel like due to the clear defined path you have to take for this race it helps us as punters a lot and you can get solid prices ahead of on the day if you watch the qualifiers for the obvious plots etc.
I think this is further backed up when you look at the last 10 years for the SP for the winners of the handicap hurdles you have just 2 Pertemps winners with an SP equal to or over 20/1, compared to 6 in the Boodles, 5 in the Coral & 4 in the County. If you then look at the other end of the spectrum for horses 10/1 or under the Pertemps comes out on top again with 5 winners that price, 4 for the County, 3 for the Boodles & just 2 for the Coral Cup.
Suggests that if you can get a shortprice plot for the County on side early too it might be an option but it needs to be as near to a Grade 1 animal as you can get like State Man but even then their is an air of unpredictability in this race.
I've always felt the Chases a little easier to target but again this year have tried to steer clear apart from the Ultima. 7 of the last 10 winners have been single figure prices and I feel the market leaders tend to run their races and are quite findable as antepost bets in this race. Just for interest of all the chasing handicaps this is easily the highest with Kim Muir having 6, the Plate having 4 and the Annual having just 3.
It all points to the staying races being easier to predict and get that early value in, I wonder if it is to do with the fact that the general profile of these horses stick out more and with shorter races a lot more factors can impact the final outcome in a packed field meaning some handicappers over 2m may have experienced less luck in running in big fast fields over the season then their staying counterparts.
I've managed to stick to just using free bets on the Ultima & Pertemps so far for those who fit the profiles that I expect to be setting off far shorter and have only put my own cash on Maxxum on the OTD. Think this is a strategy I want to aim to stick to but know it's far easier said then done by the time those handicap entries come in and start getting carried away. But with most bookies offering 7+ places on the big fields it does seem to be making more and more sense to avoid them til the week of!
I think this is further backed up when you look at the last 10 years for the SP for the winners of the handicap hurdles you have just 2 Pertemps winners with an SP equal to or over 20/1, compared to 6 in the Boodles, 5 in the Coral & 4 in the County. If you then look at the other end of the spectrum for horses 10/1 or under the Pertemps comes out on top again with 5 winners that price, 4 for the County, 3 for the Boodles & just 2 for the Coral Cup.
Suggests that if you can get a shortprice plot for the County on side early too it might be an option but it needs to be as near to a Grade 1 animal as you can get like State Man but even then their is an air of unpredictability in this race.
I've always felt the Chases a little easier to target but again this year have tried to steer clear apart from the Ultima. 7 of the last 10 winners have been single figure prices and I feel the market leaders tend to run their races and are quite findable as antepost bets in this race. Just for interest of all the chasing handicaps this is easily the highest with Kim Muir having 6, the Plate having 4 and the Annual having just 3.
It all points to the staying races being easier to predict and get that early value in, I wonder if it is to do with the fact that the general profile of these horses stick out more and with shorter races a lot more factors can impact the final outcome in a packed field meaning some handicappers over 2m may have experienced less luck in running in big fast fields over the season then their staying counterparts.
I've managed to stick to just using free bets on the Ultima & Pertemps so far for those who fit the profiles that I expect to be setting off far shorter and have only put my own cash on Maxxum on the OTD. Think this is a strategy I want to aim to stick to but know it's far easier said then done by the time those handicap entries come in and start getting carried away. But with most bookies offering 7+ places on the big fields it does seem to be making more and more sense to avoid them til the week of!
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