General Chat

[FinalFurlong91]

Ferny would need to improve about 20lbs to get too energumenes level

seems very unlikely he's even close to being as good as him

[Kautostar]

Ferny would need to improve about 20lbs to get too energumenes level

seems very unlikely he's even close to being as good as him

Ferny’s injuries would be a concern to me for him even making it

[Benjy23]

Absolutely the injuries would be the concern. Even if he did make it you'd have to be worried they'd have some effect on his ability.

Without them I think it's highly likely he'd be a better horse than Energumene, never mind as good as.

His bumper and hurdles form is unreal. And even after the first(?) injury he came back and was unbeaten as a novice chaser and clear fav for then Arkle.

[Saxon Warrior]

Ferny’s injuries would be a concern to me for him even making it

Two injury blighted seasons, failing to make Cheltenham each time, isnt a profile that tempts me into a single figure odds bet, to win an open Grade 1 chase there.

[FinalFurlong91]

Absolutely the injuries would be the concern. Even if he did make it you'd have to be worried they'd have some effect on his ability.

Without them I think it's highly likely he'd be a better horse than Energumene, never mind as good as.

His bumper and hurdles form is unreal. And even after the first(?) injury he came back and was unbeaten as a novice chaser and clear fav for then Arkle.

Likely?

I can't have that one bit

Energumene is a high 170s horse

None of fernys form puts him anywhere near him

[Hurricane fly]

He's not had an opportunity to get to those levels either with purely being in novice races.

Big ratings are given out at big festivals not over winter. After 3 races over obstacles he is a 160+ horse, I'm the potential is there to be a 170+ horse in open company it's just whether the injuries have taken hold or not

I would be interested in him but after being burnt 2 out of 3 years I'll be holding off

[DenmanSacre]

Absolutely the injuries would be the concern. Even if he did make it you'd have to be worried they'd have some effect on his ability.

Without them I think it's highly likely he'd be a better horse than Energumene, never mind as good as.

His bumper and hurdles form is unreal. And even after the first(?) injury he came back and was unbeaten as a novice chaser and clear fav for then Arkle.

I couldn't agree with this. Bumper and hurdles form is pretty irrelevant when it comes to the top 2m chasers. Energumene is a borderline 180 horse. His novice form and times were clear of Fernys.

Ferny and the rest of the 2m novices aren't anywhere near that level yet and they are at least a stone behind at the moment.

[DenmanSacre]

Demandrivingdouvan entered for a bumper at Killarney on Monday. Won by Banbridge last year and Summerville Boy has also won it. Doesn't look like there's too many interesting ones in it so hopefully we will see him declared.

[Hurricane fly]

I couldn't agree with this. Bumper and hurdles form is pretty irrelevant when it comes to the top 2m chasers. Energumene is a borderline 180 horse. His novice form and times were clear of Fernys.

Ferny and the rest of the 2m novices aren't anywhere near that level yet and they are at least a stone behind at the moment.

Supreme > Arkle > Top Class 2m is a pretty well travelled route by almost all of the top 2m chasers while I've been watching the sport so I would disagree that hurdles form can be irrelevant.

[Benjy23]

HF is right, of course he's never achieved such high ratings because he's never got the chance to. Completely unreasonable comparison that.

Both ran in bumpers: Ferny achieved 141 & Energumene achieve 127 (note: not particularly fair as Ferny ran in G1 at festivals)
After 2 bumper starts: Ferny 128 & Energumene 127
Both ran in one hurdle race: Ferny achieved 147 & Energumene 133 (both at Gowran in maidens)
Both ran in Novice Chases - After two starts: Ferny achieved a 168 & Energumene 165
After both had run in a G1 Novice Chase: Ferny 168 & Energumene 168

As I said there's a chance the previous injury has already held Ferny back and there's a chance this one does even further, so he's not going to be seeing any of my money. But there's evidence there that he was on route to be at least as good if not better than Energumene. And that's all the evidence we have and may ever get to compare the two.

[Exar Essay]

My view on the Ferny situation is simply that you are betting potential vs established quality. I don't disagree that Ferny might reach the level of Energumene and that the ratings given thus far in his career suggests he might. But factoring in his tendency to run into season ending injuries and the potential strength of the 2m chasing division next year, I think 8/1 overestimates his chances a year out.

[Benjy23]

Aye, completely agree he's not a very good price. I was going for a general chat rather than suggesting I thought he was a bet. I can't actually find many bets at the moment though. So it's going to be a long summer for me without these pointless debates!

He's 2/1 to even be fit enough to make it to the festival based on history

[BigChaang]

Won't be touching Ferny Hollow , Even with Archie;s Proverbial Bargepole , At Least until a Run in the new season .

[Quevega]

Something dodgy about the JP horse mix up at kilbeggan yesterday

2 things come to mind
how can the wrong horse be sent to a new yard 2 months ago and no one noticed.

ones a 12yr old the other 4yr old !!

surely someone at Edna’s would have said at some point,
“where the fuck is plinth ?”

and when Broderick received the “4yr old”
surely he thought
”fucking had a tough life this young horse they’ve sent me “ !!

[Topofthegame2021]

Could anyone be so kind as to tell me approximately when I can buy a Cheltenham membership for next season?

thanks!