General Chat

[Lobos]

I never touch odds on. Makes me cringe just thinking about it.

[Magpie]

Think the lowest i've taken on a single.on a.horse is 2/5. Only bet on shorties when they.are.running in big races' grade 1 or 2, Also a horse that will usually a good jumper and will find a leg if they put a bad jump in. As always, making your own odds on a race.is a good idea, just because a 1/2 shot is short does make it bad value if you think it should be 1/4. Midnight ramble.over.

[Middle_Of_March]

Our of interest, what's the shortest a price has to go before posters wont get involved regardless of how strongly they feel about the race? I think Altior at around 4/11 is about the shortest i've had a decent punt at and that felt dirty enough for me. I bet there's some proper filthy Frankel type stuff out there that some of you have gone balls deep on. Lets hear it!

I have no limit personally.

For example in the IPL cricket this season, a wicket came and Dhoni was coming in next. For that team to win, he’d have needed 12 sixes off the last 14 balls. Something that has never happened before. On a slow pitch that was a bowling paradise.

For some reason, because Dhoni was coming into bat, the bowling team was available at 1.03 and 1.02 as he walked to the crease. 1/33 and 1/50. That was exceptional exceptional value. It really was. In reality, it was probably somewhere around 1/1000 but the love for Dhoni meant people were happy to lay 1.02 and 1.03. It was bonkers.

Unsurprisingly, before he’d even got to the crease and sorted his guard, the 1.02 and 1.03 was hoovered up and it was 1.01 remaining. 50 seconds and one ball later and there was nothing left to back on the machine. No price offered.

Yes it’s probably crazy to some people to back at that price but I was happy having a few hundred on at that split second based on knowledge that it was massive value. Enough to pay for a takeaway that night. Even 1.02 and 1/50 can be value. And value is everything.


Edit - It’s also worth noting that whilst I have no limit on odds, it’s definitely a rarity to back something long odds on. Although I’m fine taking odds on at 1/5 or 1/6 in some sports when the price should be nearer half of that - Darts, Cricket and Snooker in particular. However, it’s always worth saying that no matter what the value is, sticking to bets you can afford to lose is the way to go as we all know.

[Istabraq]

MoM - that is just shrewd, knowledge of the wicket, the circumstances, history and a fading talent.

There are plenty of people out there who make/made their fortune backing 1.01 shots, the obvious one is a game of football when team leads by a goal and have a free kick/corner at the other end deep into added time, the probability of them losing possession and the opposition going length of the pitch and scoring is more like 300/1 yet often you still see plenty of 1.01 up there.
Obviously not a style of punting for everyone...

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Question for MOM or Ista regards the exchange as I feel like I am missing something. Do you not have to pay a minimum of 2% commission on winning bets in which case I’ve always wondered why people are willing to back at 1.02 as doesn’t that mean you have to pay your profit in commission? Would also make 1.03 and 1.04 less appealing, no?

[Green Goddess]

Think the lowest i've taken on a single.on a.horse is 2/5. Only bet on shorties when they.are.running in big races' grade 1 or 2, Also a horse that will usually a good jumper and will find a leg if they put a bad jump in. As always, making your own odds on a race.is a good idea, just because a 1/2 shot is short does make it bad value if you think it should be 1/4. Midnight ramble.over.

2/5....gives me shivers thinking about Defi du Seuil at that price

[Outlaw]

Question for MOM or Ista regards the exchange as I feel like I am missing something. Do you not have to pay a minimum of 2% commission on winning bets in which case I’ve always wondered why people are willing to back at 1.02 as doesn’t that mean you have to pay your profit in commission? Would also make 1.03 and 1.04 less appealing, no?

You pay 2%(3 options actually but 2% for the majority) on winnings so 2% of feck all is feck all so to speak.

1000 @ 1.02= ?1,020.00 Commission would be 2% of 20 so 40p not 2% of 1,020 which would be 20.40 which is what I think you might be thinking of.

[Diamond Geezer]

James du Berlais off to Willie Mullins

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/2669584/james-du-berlais/form

[Middle_Of_March]

Question for MOM or Ista regards the exchange as I feel like I am missing something. Do you not have to pay a minimum of 2% commission on winning bets in which case I’ve always wondered why people are willing to back at 1.02 as doesn’t that mean you have to pay your profit in commission? Would also make 1.03 and 1.04 less appealing, no?

No because it’s 2% of the winnings. The stake isn’t included in the percentage commission.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

You pay 2%(3 options actually but 2% for the majority) on winnings so 2% of feck all is feck all so to speak.

1000 @ 1.02= ?1,020.00 Commission would be 2% of 20 so 40p not 2% of 1,020 which would be 20.40 which is what I think you might be thinking of.

Ah of course, thanks to you and MOM for clarifying that, can’t wait to get stuck into some 1.02 shots now...haha!

[Spectre]

James du Berlais off to Willie Mullins

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/h...u-berlais/form

He's clearly smart DG, and has to enter calculations. Hard to know where he'd go or how well handicapped he'd be. And he's been on the go through the summer, so you'd assume Willie will either chance one run while he's fit, or let him down and bring him back later, perhaps even next season.

Le Berry (Cottin), would be really interesting if he headed over to these shores for anything at Cheltenham, and there's some cross-form between the two of them through Galleo Conti that's worth looking at when the time's right.

[ComplyOrDie]

He's clearly smart DG, and has to enter calculations. Hard to know where he'd go or how well handicapped he'd be. And he's been on the go through the summer, so you'd assume Willie will either chance one run while he's fit, or let him down and bring him back later, perhaps even next season.

Le Berry (Cottin), would be really interesting if he headed over to these shores for anything at Cheltenham, and there's some cross-form between the two of them through Galleo Conti that's worth looking at when the time's right.

Le Berry is a class act, ahead of Galleo Conti and JDB, IMO. Be surprised if he comes over though.

[Magpie]

2/5....gives me shivers thinking about Defi du Seuil at that price

Well to back at 2/5 it needs to be a good jumper, in form and no doubts about it well being. Though i really back very few odds on shots.

[Big Bucks]

Starting to see prices shorten left right and centre even more so this week, dunno if more ante post backers are getting stuck in, bookies tightening up or bit of both.

I think time to top up on a few fancys who have entries this weekend. That John Durkan race

[SizingJohn]

Starting to see prices shorten left right and centre even more so this week, dunno if more ante post backers are getting stuck in, bookies tightening up or bit of both.

I think time to top up on a few fancys who have entries this weekend. That John Durkan race

Great looking race for this time of year. Looking forward to see how Melon goes. Not normally great either away from Cheltenham or first time up, but going he hits the ground running.

Edit:spelling