General Chat

[Middle_Of_March]

Though I don’t really wish to re emphasise my train of thought, I’ve tried to highlight this - how many horses, of all those that don’t make it to the festival the following year (from the day the festival finishes to the eve of the next one) get injured and are ruled out in the first six months (mid March to mid September) compared to the next 6 months, and even more specifically, post Christmas?

At a reasonable guess, I’d say no more than 20% at an absolute push, suffer injuries in those first six months post festival that rule them out of the following year’s festival, compared to 80% that get ruled out due to racing injuries sustained once the National Hunt season gets going properly at the beginning of October.


My point???


In the time it’s taken for just a few names TopoftheGame,Aramon and a few less select others ) to be be ruled out, we’ve seen the prices for Envoi Allen and Shishkin to shorten by well over 50%, and of course many other market leaders too. And yes, I too had a little dabble on Princess Zoe at 50/1, but we all I think it’s fair to say took a speculative punt that she’d be a Cheltenham course, not go on to win the Cadran and solidify her status and value post career at stud.

Based on the percentage of horses that actually miss the folllowing years’s festival from March to September, (and I can’t give any figures, but we all would all know the very large majority get ruled out after Christmas), would it not be good judgment therefore to take those really early prices for horses knowing a) they are only going to shorten, and b) the likelihood of them missing the next years festival through those Summer months whilst the prices shorten as we nibble at them, is actually very low and the odds are specifically in our favour

For this point.. I would just like to point out though that you’re forgetting that the main reason for them shortening has been more than just them not being injured in the 8 months.

They’ve also shortened since Cheltenham 2020 ended because:
- They were both confirmed as novice chasing
- They’ve since had the Arkle and Marsh mentioned
- The rumour mill had them schooling well
- They’ve both come out and shown to be well
- They’ve both won their debuts
- They’ve both shown they’re superb jumpers
- The likely opposition are becoming more known and both races look potentially weak (not going to be against each other for example)
- Other horses that have stayed over hurdles that could’ve gone chasing at the time of your bet (Abacadabras & Honeysuckle for example)
- Other horses who have run but not impressed that might’ve come out and blown everyone away (Darver Star lost but if looking brilliant, would’ve meant Shishkin would’ve been a bigger price still).
- One of the two has won a Grade 1 since over fences


All of these factors detract from the price. Yes those prices look great in hindsight (most on here have the prices you’ve got anyway) but that’s with the benefit of hindsight. If Shishkin had struggled with his jumping like he did over hurdles, he’d be a much bigger price and nearer that price from back in March than what he is right now. But as it was, so far everything you’d want to happen, has happened. That doesn’t mean it was definitely going to have worked out how it has done - even if they both did not get injured over the summer.

[EnvoyAllen]

And I looked, and read in detail, at every single valid point you’ve mentioned there Mr Middle of March.

I took all of the above points you’ve mentioned, 8 months ago, worked out my thoughts on each one, and went for it.

Twice I have mentioned here that the day before last years festival, with no prior knowledge that the 2 horses would win, both Gavin Lynch and David Jennings put up these two for the following years festival.

Lynch was even asked “Not the RSA then?” Lynch replied ‘No, he’ll go Marsh’. It’s available to watch on YouTube about 5 mins and 30 secs in.

Couple this with many, many quotes in the few days post festival that both horses likely destinations were the Arkle and Marsh (I’ve read like a motherfucka for preparation for this next year’s festival) and you can quickly form your own views.


Why bet on Usain Bolt at 1/5 to win the 100 meters on the eve of the London Olympics in 2012 when he’s readily available a year before at evens money??

Why bet on Lewis Hamilton to win the drivers championship on the eve of the F1 season at 1/2 when at the conclusion of the previous season you can get 4/5??

Bolt could have got injured a year in advance.

Hell, even Hamilton might find he’s not in the best car 4 months later.


But, what are the odds of any of this happening??

Relatively small, and most certainly in the punters favour.


If Shishkin and Envoi Allen (and other leading fancies) blow out in their races like Defi did at this year’s Champion Chase, what on earth can I do about it? Nothing.

If Shishkin and Envoi Allen (and other leading fancies) don’t make it to the festival through injury, what on earth can I do about it? Nothing.

They’ve been grazing all Summer, won their maiden races against horses 20lb inferior to them, and everyone moans that 6/4 isn’t value. They’re right, it’s a rubbish price to take.

What happens between now and race day and on the race track I can’t control. If they both lose, I can’t control. But if I believe two horses are going to seriously shorten for months out, I will absolutely take my chance that if they get injured, it’ll be after Christmas when they’re both sitting at evens money and not 5/1 and 7/1.

This 100% isn’t about whether they win.

It’s about beating the bookie. It’s not rocket science.

[jack1092]

s.


Why bet on Usain Bolt at 1/5 to win the 100 meters on the eve of the London Olympics in 2012 when he’s readily available a year before at evens money??

Why bet on Lewis Hamilton to win the drivers championship on the eve of the F1 season at 1/2 when at the conclusion of the previous season you can get 4/5??

Bolt could have got injured a year in advance.

Hell, even Hamilton might find he’s not in the best car 4 months later.


But, what are the odds of any of this happening??

Relatively small, and most certainly in the punters favour.

Some punters don't like tying their money up for so long especially with the uncontrollable variables attached. It's that simple. You obviously don't mind, and hey, fair enough that's your strategy. It might work this year, it might not next year and the year after?
As mentioned by others, not every year will you have novice hurdles of the quality of EA +Shishkin going novice chasing, where the bookies will offer some form of price because they haven't jumped a fence under rules.
This season you might find a Labaik Supreme winner and a close finish in the Ballymore. Then your angle is surely a lot more difficult to spot from a year out?

[EnvoyAllen]

Some punters don't like tying their money up for so long especially with the uncontrollable variables attached. It's that simple. You obviously don't mind, and hey, fair enough that's your strategy. It might work this year, it might not next year and the year after?
As mentioned by others, not every year will you have novice hurdles of the quality of EA +Shishkin going novice chasing, where the bookies will offer some form of price because they haven't jumped a fence under rules.
This season you might find a Labaik Supreme winner and a close finish in the Ballymore. Then your angle is surely a lot more difficult to spot from a year out?

You’re absolutely right, and yes, I have been burnt before.

Following his 2013 Champion Chase mauling of a win, the following day his opening quote for the following year’s festival was just 4/6 - for those who don’t believe me,trust me - I took the odds!! The thinking behind this? I truly believed there was a reasonable chance he’d go off 1/4 on the day, and therefore 4/6 was an exceptional price potentially to take 12 months in advance.

He never made it to the following year’s festival. And yes, it still gives me nightmares!

But, and this is well and truly the key, key point here - when did his injury happen?? It was at Kempton, on the 27th December. Shortly after in the New Year, he was retired for the season and missed the festival.

The injury came 2 days after Xmas. The price on Sprinter Sacre in the preceding months up until that point had shortened from 4/6 to 1/3.

Did I get an exceptional price? Yes.

Did those backing Sprinter Sacre for the Champion Chase the day before he ran at Kempton get value in 1/3? Possibly not.

I will reiterate until I go blue in the face - it’s not about the outcome of the bet.

It’s about the timescale of when the very large majority of National Hunt horses miss the festival through injury, and the prices that shorten in the build up to the period, on an average basis.

Why is Monkfish, to give another example, a bad bet at 25/1 to win the Gold Cup in 2022, just in 15 months time?

He’s a strong 7/2 ante post bet for the RSA in 3 months time. And yet the 25/1, based on his current 7/2 for a race 12 months in advance is you could argue, a related contingency.

If Monkfish wins the RSA at 7/2, then that makes the 25/1 a year later for the Gold Cup pretty much irrelevant, and an extremely good price, regardless of whether he actually makes it to the 2022 festival or wins that Gold Cup.

Why take the 7/1 double on Shishkin & Envoi Allen to win their target races this year when the 225/1 to win their highly probable target races for a year later was available a week ago?

I just believe that a certain amount of good homework, good instinct and forethought can often reap good rewards.

And of course, and perhaps even more importantly, the tiniest touch of luck.

[Kevloaf]

You’re absolutely right, and yes, I have been burnt before.

Following his 2013 Champion Chase mauling of a win, the following day his opening quote for the following year’s festival was just 4/6 - for those who don’t believe me,trust me - I took the odds!! The thinking behind this? I truly believed there was a reasonable chance he’d go off 1/4 on the day, and therefore 4/6 was an exceptional price potentially to take 12 months in advance.

He never made it to the following year’s festival. And yes, it still gives me nightmares!

But, and this is well and truly the key, key point here - when did his injury happen?? It was at Kempton, on the 27th December. Shortly after in the New Year, he was retired for the season and missed the festival.

The injury came 2 days after Xmas. The price on Sprinter Sacre in the preceding months up until that point had shortened from 4/6 to 1/3.

Did I get an exceptional price? Yes.

Did those backing Sprinter Sacre for the Champion Chase the day before he ran at Kempton get value in 1/3? Possibly not.

I will reiterate until I go blue in the face - it’s not about the outcome of the bet.

It’s about the timescale of when the very large majority of National Hunt horses miss the festival through injury, and the prices that shorten in the build up to the period, on an average basis.

Why is Monkfish, to give another example, a bad bet at 25/1 to win the Gold Cup in 2022, just in 15 months time?

He’s a strong 7/2 ante post bet for the RSA in 3 months time. And yet the 25/1, based on his current 7/2 for a race 12 months in advance is you could argue, a related contingency.

If Monkfish wins the RSA at 7/2, then that makes the 25/1 a year later for the Gold Cup pretty much irrelevant, and an extremely good price, regardless of whether he actually makes it to the 2022 festival or wins that Gold Cup.

Why take the 7/1 double on Shishkin & Envoi Allen to win their target races this year when the 225/1 to win their highly probable target races for a year later is available a week ago?

I just believe that a certain amount of good homework, good instinct and forethought can often reap good rewards.

And of course, and perhaps even more importantly, the tiniest touch of luck.

Isn't the point you're making though that you're asking people why they don't fancy a shorter price than was available?

You're assuming in this example that everyone who 'missed the 4/6' would be taking the 1/3 the day before he ran at Kempton.

I would strongly suggest, those people who said he was too short at 4/6, would also say he was too short at 1/3 and wouldn't have been 'piling in' as you do.




If it works for you Envoy Allen, great......but I've read the same case made about 5 times now it feels and I don't know what the end game is

[Jorvik]

Our of interest, what's the shortest a price has to go before posters wont get involved regardless of how strongly they feel about the race? I think Altior at around 4/11 is about the shortest i've had a decent punt at and that felt dirty enough for me. I bet there's some proper filthy Frankel type stuff out there that some of you have gone balls deep on. Lets hear it!

[Outlaw]

Did I get an exceptional price? Yes.

Did those backing Sprinter Sacre for the Champion Chase the day before he ran at Kempton get value in 1/3? Possibly not.

I will reiterate until I go blue in the face - it’s not about the outcome of the bet.

It’s about the timescale of when the very large majority of National Hunt horses miss the festival through injury, and the prices that shorten in the build up to the period, on an average basis.

Why is Monkfish, to give another example, a bad bet at 25/1 to win the Gold Cup in 2022, just in 15 months time?

He’s a strong 7/2 ante post bet for the RSA in 3 months time. And yet the 25/1, based on his current 7/2 for a race 12 months in advance is you could argue, a related contingency.

If Monkfish wins the RSA at 7/2, then that makes the 25/1 a year later for the Gold Cup pretty much irrelevant, and an extremely good price, regardless of whether he actually makes it to the 2022 festival or wins that Gold Cup.

Why take the 7/1 double on Shishkin & Envoi Allen to win their target races this year when the 225/1 to win their highly probable target races for a year later was available a week ago?

I just believe that a certain amount of good homework, good instinct and forethought can often reap good rewards.

And of course, and perhaps even more importantly, the tiniest touch of luck.

Your beating the price congrats, so do the majority of users on here but they don't feel the need for these continued posts. What works and is comfortable for you might not be for others and vice versa.

The price anyone takes on a horse only matters at the time of the bet, the results are irrelevant in isolation as any value seeker would agree on but touching on the Monkfish GC price, of course any novice that is antepost fav for an RSA potentially is a good bet at 25/1 for the following year should your belief be they are going to win an RSA. If he doesn't win the race the 25/1 might still be there or even bigger but that is a variable of whether he might win or not months in advance. You talk like all these things are certain to happen, if it's your belief they are then great you have comfortably beaten the price(step1) now to win(step2) and you can enjoy the wheelbarrow of cash you will be peddling around until the following festival. Racing is no certainty as many can relate too so i am unsure as to why a few talk like it is.

[Istabraq]

Our of interest, what's the shortest a price has to go before posters wont get involved.
Lets hear it!

Good question and I’m sure there’ll be a wide variation on answers.
For me I play each way down to 5/2 and win down to 1/2, I apply different approach to sports betting where I’ll often back (cricket) 1.15/1.2...

[Kevloaf]

Our of interest, what's the shortest a price has to go before posters wont get involved regardless of how strongly they feel about the race? I think Altior at around 4/11 is about the shortest i've had a decent punt at and that felt dirty enough for me. I bet there's some proper filthy Frankel type stuff out there that some of you have gone balls deep on. Lets hear it!

Years back, I put my student loan payment on 2/7 Chelsea away at Derby (the season Derby went down with hardly any points) - I didn't watch the game live, just checked the score afterwards after some Pro-Evo and it was a routine 2-0 win for Chelsea. I watched MOTD and if I recall correctly, Derby had a goal ruled out at 0-0 before Chelsea clicked in to gear. It put me off betting for a while.


I am one of those who backed Frankel at 1/20 - to win enough to have a night out with... "free night Frankel" That still remains the largest single I've placed.


I also had 30 points on Envoi Allen at 1/3 t'other day as I said on here.... so I'm not against it, when I feel it's value still.


To answer the actual question, I think 1/20 is the limit, and Frankel sets the bar so incredibly high. If I was ever considering a 1/20 bet, I'd have to be more sure they'd win, than I was Frankel would win... and I can't really see that happening. He's my barometer for how much I fancy something. Zero to Frankel

[robith]

Our of interest, what's the shortest a price has to go before posters wont get involved regardless of how strongly they feel about the race? I think Altior at around 4/11 is about the shortest i've had a decent punt at and that felt dirty enough for me. I bet there's some proper filthy Frankel type stuff out there that some of you have gone balls deep on. Lets hear it!

Only time I've really done it, my boss and I were in a box on the Tuesday, he'd won big on Altior in the Supreme and I'd landed a touch with the old faithful Douvan/Sporting John forecast so we both went "fuck it" and pooled our winnings and put the lot on Vroum Vroum Mag in the Mares Hurdle at like 8/11. Great craic.

Otherwise tbh with the size of my stakes, anything below evens and I struggle to see the point in backing it even if I think it will win. I'm not one for lumping huge sums on. At being frank, at evens, I'd probably only back if I thought it should be shorter

[Jorvik]

Good stuff Anyone who is planning on going racing over the next couple of weeks know what the craic is with regards to getting a pint, being able to bet with bookies on course? i.e. can you?!

I spy pints and bookies on pictures the RP have put out today

[JackieMoon33]

I'm sure there is a quote from JP McManus who does not like to back odds on (it could be another heavy hitter but he springs to mind).

"If you're willing to lose 20 grand to win 5 grand then you don't really need 5 grand in the first place"

Note: the values may be different but you get the point.

[Istabraq]

I'm sure there is a quote from JP McManus who does not like to back odds on (it could be another heavy hitter but he springs to mind).

"If you're willing to lose 20 grand to win 5 grand then you don't really need 5 grand in the first place"

Note: the values may be different but you get the point.

I think I've read something similar from a well known pro gambler but that refers specifically to racing, the advent of the sports betting/trading market means you can find some of the best value in gambling and 1.5/1.6 shots can be hit with confidence...

[JackieMoon33]

I think I've read something similar from a well known pro gambler but that refers specifically to racing, the advent of the sports betting/trading market means you can find some of the best value in gambling and 1.5/1.6 shots can be hit with confidence...

Correct it was definitely racing related quote. I barely have enough funds and time for Cheltenham ante post these days, let alone venturing into other sports. Maybe when I retire in 20 years!

[Spectre]

I only back odds on in multiples, and never in a single. And the shortest each way price I’ll take in a multiple is 5/2. Also I’ll only back to break even on the place as worse case in an each way single. 4/1 1/4 place and 5/1 1/5 the place.

I think it’s an each to their own approach, and it should be something that suits a personal style and mentality.