General Chat

[robith]

[Many Clouds]

Someone's a little mixed up in the head and been watching the wrong type of stuff. Me thinks

There's plenty of threads for you to talk bollocks in, all over the internet.

Let's just keep this forum to talking bollocks about the horse's.
I reckon.

Fucking vitamins !!
Silly Billy.

Yeh because Vitiains don't boost youre immune system do they? Already studies done that show if you have a Vitimin D defficinacy (which many people do) that you are more succeptable to covid.

But yeh I have a different opinion and no doubt a conspiracy theorist talking bollocks because I believe people should be treated early for Covid, instead of being advised to wait at home until they can't breath and then go to hospital to be put on a ventilator.

I'm such a silly billy.

[Quevega]

Yeh because Vitiains don't boost youre immune system do they? Already studies done that show if you have a Vitimin D defficinacy (which many people do) that you are more succeptable to covid.

But yeh I have a different opinion and no doubt a conspiracy theorist talking bollocks because I believe people should be treated early for Covid, instead of being advised to wait at home until they can't breath and then go to hospital to be put on a ventilator.

I'm such a silly billy.

I agree
Go and take your vitamins.

[Odin]

Having a look at the markets afresh today and noted there are 6 races with favourites at 2/1 or less which is remarkable at this time of the year. I can't recall a market like this before, can anyone else?

I can see from bets placed this time last year that Shishkin, Easysland and Envoi were 2/1 or less but can't see any others.

I'm not a long-term antepost bettor but the general feeling on here is that prices are considerably shorter than previous years so the fact that it's only 6 races is probably the most remarkable aspect for me! Not that I believe it should be that way FWIW

[Exar Essay]

I'm not a long-term antepost bettor but the general feeling on here is that prices are considerably shorter than previous years so the fact that it's only 6 races is probably the most remarkable aspect for me! Not that I believe it should be that way FWIW

It's 9 at 3/1 or less too. Given that is only for Championship and Novice races, that's incredible to my mind this far out.

[Brooksie]

Yeh because Vitiains don't boost youre immune system do they? Already studies done that show if you have a Vitimin D defficinacy (which many people do) that you are more succeptable to covid.

But yeh I have a different opinion and no doubt a conspiracy theorist talking bollocks because I believe people should be treated early for Covid, instead of being advised to wait at home until they can't breath and then go to hospital to be put on a ventilator.

I'm such a silly billy.

'When the whole world is running towards a cliff, he who is running in the opposite direction appears to have lost his mind'

[Benjy23]

Any thoughts on the Tylicki case, and if it will have any impact on current riders?

Assume there's no issue with discussing but delete if there is.

[Guinness Village]

YH apparently the double green have a new one from France that they fancy for the arkle. Don’t ask the name, it wasn’t forthcoming. Personally, I think that blue Lord has a fair chance in the race. But I also think that concertista will end up in the mares hurdle next March, so what do I know!!

[isitmarchyet]

RacingTV will be (kind of) free-to-air on Boxing Day.

Irish racing fans seeking uninterrupted coverage of the jam-packed December 26 action have had their Christmas wish granted as Racing TV has confirmed the one-off return of a free-to-air, dedicated Irish racing service on Sunday.

With a total of eight meetings scheduled for Racing TV on the day, viewers can watch only the action from Leopardstown, Limerick and Down Royal on the FreeSports channel.

This free service will be available in Britain and Ireland through Sky HD (422) and Virgin TV (553), and also available on the Racing TV Extra facility for subscribers.

Expected to get under way at 11.30am and run until 4.00pm, the fully dedicated Irish channel will be hosted by Gary O'Brien.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/late...mber-26/528470

[Rooster Booster]

There is a constant tug of war between fraudsters and those employed by major blue chip companies to protect the companies they work for and their customers form fraud. As soon as one avenue is closed down the fraudsters open up a new one and so on ....a constant game of cat and mouse. This year we are all feeling the impact of across the board tightening of margins by all the firms.

The concept of value is one that is incredibly important to so many of us. Accepting that it is somewhat subjective with a high degree of ‘beauty is in the eye of the beholder’, it is still one thing many of us seek and therefore have in common. Never before have I observed so many comments questioning whether horse x or horse y represents value. Perhaps if so very few horses represent value then we need to rethink our definition of value just like a fraudster needs to overcome whatever obstacles are put in their way. Perhaps we have to look holistically and look for horses that are less shit value, or perhaps we have to move away from value as the holy grail altogether and focus more on finding a winner irrespective of value. We are not the ones with the control but we are the ones responsible for finding a solution. We are not going to be presented with value so we now need to find an alternative.

I am interested in how individuals are looking to overcome this challenge and ways in which this forum can help us respond. My personal approach this year has been roll ups. I have done many many roll ups looking wherever I can for them and I am focussing more on this and coupling roll ups with the horses I think will win a race irrespective of whether I think it is value or not. This is my strategy. I have had enormous success with this and the darts. Im not sure if I’ve just struck lucky, probably. I’d say my knowledge of dart is a fair bit above average but by no means at expert level but I believe that favourites (particulalrly in the early rounds) have an unusually high success rate compared to most other sports). I cannot prove this but I believe it to be so. This has been my answer this year. So essentially I quickly realised it was pointless focusing on value and tried to find a solution. Like I say it would be great to hear how others have looked to overcome this challenge, if indeed they believe it has been a challenge.

There have been a number of horses that the forum almost unanimously considered to be of value ...the likes of Al Blum Photo, GDM etc. Despite us all recognising the value in these horses the prices have held up in many cases. Like the firms are saying here you go, we’ll throw you the occasional bone to satisfy you or distract you because we really don’t think they are going to win even if they probably do represent value. Where does the control lie in this scenario.

is anybody genuinely worried about their book and faced now with the choice of compromising their need for value out of concern for not getting winners?if so are you prepared to compromise on value or do you have a different plan?

As I say I’d love to hear peoples thoughts

[That Horse]

As I say I’d love to hear peoples thoughts

Considering waiting for NRNB for some horses seeing as it won't be long until it's introduced as some firms remove cashout.

It won't represent value as such but provides a safety net when a lot of horses remain without a run or without a meaningful run. Plus some horses are so short, I'd be happier taking less of a price knowing I'm covered if any plans change or they get injured.

Should add that I have a lot of bets placed already, so it's not like I'm only starting out now but with a couple of exceptions who hopefully are declared for races next week, I'm thinking probably just waiting for NRNB now.

[Zachx02]

There is a constant tug of war between fraudsters and those employed by major blue chip companies to protect the companies they work for and their customers form fraud. As soon as one avenue is closed down the fraudsters open up a new one and so on ....a constant game of cat and mouse. This year we are all feeling the impact of across the board tightening of margins by all the firms.

The concept of value is one that is incredibly important to so many of us. Accepting that it is somewhat subjective with a high degree of ‘beauty is in the eye of the beholder’, it is still one thing many of us seek and therefore have in common. Never before have I observed so many comments questioning whether horse x or horse y represents value. Perhaps if so very few horses represent value then we need to rethink our definition of value just like a fraudster needs to overcome whatever obstacles are put in their way. Perhaps we have to look holistically and look for horses that are less shit value, or perhaps we have to move away from value as the holy grail altogether and focus more on finding a winner irrespective of value. We are not the ones with the control but we are the ones responsible for finding a solution. We are not going to be presented with value so we now need to find an alternative.

I am interested in how individuals are looking to overcome this challenge and ways in which this forum can help us respond. My personal approach this year has been roll ups. I have done many many roll ups looking wherever I can for them and I am focussing more on this and coupling roll ups with the horses I think will win a race irrespective of whether I think it is value or not. This is my strategy. I have had enormous success with this and the darts. Im not sure if I’ve just struck lucky, probably. I’d say my knowledge of dart is a fair bit above average but by no means at expert level but I believe that favourites (particulalrly in the early rounds) have an unusually high success rate compared to most other sports). I cannot prove this but I believe it to be so. This has been my answer this year. So essentially I quickly realised it was pointless focusing on value and tried to find a solution. Like I say it would be great to hear how others have looked to overcome this challenge, if indeed they believe it has been a challenge.

There have been a number of horses that the forum almost unanimously considered to be of value ...the likes of Al Blum Photo, GDM etc. Despite us all recognising the value in these horses the prices have held up in many cases. Like the firms are saying here you go, we’ll throw you the occasional bone to satisfy you or distract you because we really don’t think they are going to win even if they probably do represent value. Where does the control lie in this scenario.

is anybody genuinely worried about their book and faced now with the choice of compromising their need for value out of concern for not getting winners?if so are you prepared to compromise on value or do you have a different plan?

As I say I’d love to hear peoples thoughts

We pretty much have the same stance, roll ups, many of which I completely forget to add to my diary is how I've managed to get antepost value on bets which are not free bets as those are pretty much just going on shorties which I'm trying to get something back off and RaBs. Tennis and Basketball for me tend to be what I have the most success with especially in the current climate for the latter due to covid problems within league you can tend to get to the handicap markets before they react.

But really the main way I've tried to get value this year and this has been mentioned on the forums plenty of times before these past few weeks due to how stingy the bookies have been is backing before the horse has ran, thankfully I have all accounts available to use bar one bookmaker so I have access to cashout so if it is a dud, I can get out but some members do not have access to that so it may a more risky approach

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'll try not to sound overly negative but I've mentioned this a few times before. If a horse is not deemed to be 'value' then I don't see how putting it in a roll up gets you value.

Yes, it gets you a bigger price but if horse X is under priced, it is still under priced regardless of what combination bets you put it with. Doing this long term will (likely) result in a loss, imo.

I think there are still plenty of opportunities to back over priced horses but I do think it requires being more selective than perhaps in previous years.

That's my take on it anyway.

[Istabraq]

I'll try not to sound overly negative but I've mentioned this a few times before. If a horse is not deemed to be 'value' then I don't see how putting it in a roll up gets you value.

Yes, it gets you a bigger price but if horse X is under priced, it is still under priced regardless of what combination bets you put it with

Yep, spot on, but whilst factually correct it doesn’t consider the complex mind and emotion involved, take 5/1 about a horse who you missed the early value on and sling it in with a 6/4 certainty out of Trap 1 at icy Sheffield and turn the horse into a 14/1 shot and you feel pretty good about life….

[Rooster Booster]

I'll try not to sound overly negative but I've mentioned this a few times before. If a horse is not deemed to be 'value' then I don't see how putting it in a roll up gets you value.

Yes, it gets you a bigger price but if horse X is under priced, it is still under priced regardless of what combination bets you put it with. Doing this long term will (likely) result in a loss, imo.

I think there are still plenty of opportunities to back over priced horses but I do think it requires being more selective than perhaps in previous years.

That's my take on it anyway.

My post was mainly about changing the way we think about value or moving thinking away from value to some extent (maybe a lot or maybe a little). The reason I do roll ups has nothing to do with value as I am not rolling up with a target price in mind at all. Rather it is to limit how much I need to invest to win the amount I want to win. It’s pure gambling or risk taking and nothing to do with value. I have chosen a sport a know quite a lot about and imo suits roll ups for my purpose.

So far i have had luck on my side and a very high success rate because of the darts I now have a number of fancied horses on my side that would have been too expensive for me to do otherwise. Had the roll ups lost I would have had no choice but to leave the horse unbacked. As I say nothing to do with value at all.