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Originally posted by robith
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I think he'd rather retire on the back of a few big race wins rather than an injury. Not that he needs to prove anything anything anyone. -
BHA announce changes to UK handicapping system, full story on RP website…Comment
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One line stood out in that to me "more rigorous back handicapping" which concerns me as based on their track record that will see a horse beaten by a head one week will bolt up in a shit field next race and the poor sod who had previously beaten the rag will see another 10lbs, and the cycle begins againOriginally posted by Istabraq View Post
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See below for article, about time and the bit I've highlighted made me chuckle! A very cushty job that many would lob a limb off for and do with genuine passion, and yet they think they are doing us a favour by being "Proactive". It's your job and requires common sense and being adaptable, not relying on an archaic way of rating horses!
The BHA’s head of handicapping says his team will take a far more proactive approach in future after announcing changes to their methodology on Wednesday in the wake of the poor performance of British horses at the Cheltenham Festival.
Among changes outlined as part of the BHA’s Quality Jumps Review, older horses will receive bigger drops after being beaten and the approach to handicapping novice hurdlers will be reassessed.
Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Dominic Gardiner-Hill said: "There was an awful lot of talk about how not just the Graded races [at Cheltenham] but the handicaps went. Ireland won seven, Britain won two. We then had the Grand National, and personally I think there were other issues involved there, but it was another issue on top of what happened at Cheltenham.
"Why have we suddenly found ourselves in this position? I think we were lulled into a false sense of security – on the surface there were not a lot of alarm bells. If you go back to the three previous festivals, there were ten handicaps and on each occasion they were split five apiece.
"We were aware of the analysis that showed Irish-trained handicappers were doing slightly better overall, but you would imagine horses sent across from Ireland would be fit, healthy and in form and that they would fare a little better as a result."
Ireland won seven of the nine handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival, including Mrs Milner in the Pertemps Final
Pool
BHA handicapping analysis had traditionally centred on the median rating of all horses under a certain code, and Gardiner-Hill said: "We were keeping an eye on the median. As long as that was stable, we were thinking things were okay. On top of that, we were still producing competitive handicaps day in, day out."
What focus on median ratings had missed, as shown by analysis from economist Kevin Barrins which was published in the Racing Post in April, was the overall distribution of runners. Barrins pointed out that the relative shape of British and Irish distributions was different, putting too many British-trained hurdlers in the crucial range where the biggest handicaps are fought.
The BHA's analysis shows that the modal value – the single rating that is held by the largest number of horses – had increased by around 10lb over hurdles between 2018 and 2021 compared with ten years earlier. Over fences, it was more than 20lb. The overall distributions show a rightward shift over the period that would be consistent with handicap slippage.
Gardiner-Hill accepted this, but pointed out: "My view is that we're the only handicapping jurisdiction in the world, with the possible exception of Hong Kong, that would undergo this sort of analysis on our own file."
Asked how it had happened over time, he said: "I think you need to go back to before Phil Smith became head of handicapping. Then it was the case that horses often went up 2-3lb for winning and you got horses running up sequences of six, eight wins on the trot. Phil changed our methodology, which was fairer to more horses as it made these sequences harder, but not impossible.
"That got us into a position we wanted to be in, but then we carried on and probably went a bit too far. Now we're adjusting our methodology again. It's nothing seismic, but we need to be sure that as younger horses improve into the area in which we found the issue [hurdlers rated around 110 to 145] a similar number of exposed older horses are dropping out."
Dominic Gardiner-Hill: "We're the only handicapping jurisdiction in the world, with the possible exception of Hong Kong, that would undergo this sort of analysis on our own file"
Edward Whitaker
On novice hurdlers, Gardiner-Hill added: "I do think, and the analysis will tell you, that there are certain horses in the novice hurdle division that should be rated a little lower to make them competitive earlier."
On the three approaches considered by the BHA review, Gardiner-Hill revealed an algorithmic reassessment of around 4,000 horses was given a dry run and may help shape changes to the system in the coming months.
"We ran the algorithm, and we noted the changes it would have made," he explained. "We're using that to give us an indication of the sort of adjustments we will need to make in order to get where we want to be. It might be that horses that would have previously gone down 1lb or 2lb now go down 2lb or 3lb."
The algorithmic approach was ultimately rejected because, according to Gardiner-Hill: "Had we done that, I couldn't have told you why certain horses' marks had been altered. I think connections would much rather ring us up and be given a pounds-and-ounces justification rather than have their horses' marks left entirely to an algorithm. The trainers I've spoken to about these changes have largely been very supportive – and why wouldn't they be?"
Gardiner-Hill also pledged to make sure the slippage of recent years does not happen again.
"We'll be looking at the file on at least a monthly basis. The one thing we can't do is redress the balance and just say: 'That's it, guys; we've done it.' We have got to keep the pressure on and make sure it doesn't happen again.
"It's a case of lessons learned; we've got to make use of the data that we know our analysts can now produce. I've got so much more confidence now in the analysis we are using.
"I will hold my hands up. Perhaps we should have done this sort of in-depth analysis earlier. But we're doing something about it now, we're being proactive and we will get it done by January 1."
Reiterating the overall aims of the review, he said: "We want everyone to go to the races thinking they've got a chance of winning. If that means taking the occasional knock, and being told that you haven't done one or two things quite as well as you could have then that's life. Learn from it and make things better."
He added: "Our measures of success will be primarily data-driven; this is entirely separate to the jumps review as it's all in-house and has very few external stakeholders.
"But you have to consider Cheltenham. It could be that we're sitting here on March 20 next year and the Irish have won seven of the nine handicaps again. If that happens, we may well have another look. But even if they do, I don't want anyone to be able to say to us: you lazy buggers, you got battered last year, you swept it under the carpet and did nothing."
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Not sure where to put this, but this was on Twitter this morning....
RubyTuesday
@Ruby_Tuesday59
Robcour News
Aspire Tower stays hurdling, aim is FF at Newcastle
Magic Daze novice chasing
Chris Dream apparently being aimed at the Hennessy
Gentleman Joe recruited from the Flat could be one for Triumph, has form behind Yibir & Lone Eagle on last run at Goodwood.Comment
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Allegorie De Vassy now with WPM/RR according to HRI....Comment
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Just been watching her last two runs on France Galop, she's a fair unit compared with the other fillies she ran against. I'd imagine she'll be producing her best when going over further or even over fences in something like the Mares Chase in time.Originally posted by jack1092 View PostComment
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Apologies if already posted but I can't see it anywhere: Shewearsitwell is entered in a 1m 4f fillies maiden at Galway on 7th Sep.
Edit: Sorry, already been mentioned in the Mares thread. Feel free to delete this.Last edited by Atlantic Viking; 2 September 2021, 04:04 PM.Comment
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Hello everyone, I am new to this forum! Looks very interesting with some excellent (and very knowledgable) debate.
I have noticed there is a section with ‘members diaries’? What is this and how do I add my own ante post selections to this please?Comment
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Click the members section and just make a new post with whatever title you wish and take it from there.Originally posted by Bollinger View Post
Welcome aboard.Comment
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I see that Cheltenham are selling November lounge tickets again. The final flight seems to have died a death. You get free tea and coffee, so I reckon if I have 20 cups, I will have got moneys worth.!!!Comment
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Has anyone else noticed the price increases for next years Festival? The Best Mate tickets (the Old Kent Road of Tickets) have gone up from the normal early bird price of ?30 to ?45!!! Unless they have built a new stand which can hold more than 1000 people, a new toilet block with standing room for more than 20 men or have starting to put beef in the burgers then that’s scandalous. I appreciate they lost a lot of money last year but the give the working man a chance. I’m tempted to pay another ?35 and go and bring down the standard in the Club enclosure!! I’m quite annoyed as I’m sure the 6 I bought in April were ?35. They should focus on encouraging cheaper early sales to guarantee getting money in the bank than putting people off.Comment
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He a tough tough man, he’s looked in his 40’s for the past 20 years though, he’s starting to look like the old man on the front cover of the Cure album Staring At The Seas!! He’s a brilliant jockey, one of the best jump jockeys ever but I do fear the sport may be the end of him. I think retirement would break him more than any injury and if he feels fit enough I’ll be willing to back his rides at Cheltenham next year if he gets thereOriginally posted by robith View PostComment
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Probably, they make a great team and I’d assume they are very close friends so hopefully the ban for Gordon and the injury break for Davy has given them time to reflect and work out a way to progress from the drama of the past 6 monthsOriginally posted by Lbur4288 View PostComment
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When does Gordon's 'ban' end?
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