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MY DROGO back up with Bet365 in their Arkle market at 8/1, for those missing Cashout when they checked after he won at the weekend and was withdrawn from B365’s Arkle market.
Not that you should Cashout, but it should be back for you.
HappyGoLucky +8 (157) harsh that IMO,he might well prove to be a high 150s/160 graders horse but forces the hand a bit with future targets. That Aintree hcap was full of regressive or stalled horses, I would not be happy if I was team Bailey this morning, especially with Espoir De Romany getting the same mark as Chantry House (160 the pair) as he got as far as the 2nd last without getting any prize money.
Winning high value competitive handicaps comfortably will always get rises of around that (sometimes more), I take bigger issue with horses beaten 6l and getting 3lb/4lb rises, horses beaten 10l at Cheltneham were getting another pound which has to be incredibly frustrating for connections....
Beaten horses getting raised drives me mad. Surely it’s the handicappers job to give horses a chance to win, not make it harder for them.
Absolutely, we all hate to see a pilot gently nurturing their mount up the run in to finish 6th in big qualifiers but it’s entirely understandable, goes some way to explaining why UK horses have such difficulty winning big festival handicaps...
Winning high value competitive handicaps comfortably will always get rises of around that (sometimes more), I take bigger issue with horses beaten 6l and getting 3lb/4lb rises, horses beaten 10l at Cheltneham were getting another pound which has to be incredibly frustrating for connections....
Ordinarily yes I’d agree but treat every race in isolation(something the hcappers clearly are not!) that hcap had very little on the up.
I noticed the RP released a statement yday saying a full review is to be conducted on this seasons results and Irish dominance at the two festivals thus far by the BHA. Should be interesting what dribble they spout in the coming weeks, it appears it’s purely still distance beat sliding scale, other factors need to be implemented for accurate & fair ratings.
I noticed the RP released a statement yday saying a full review is to be conducted on this seasons results
Good news but the trend began some years ago so once again their reactive approach is very late in the day.
There are many reasons why Irish horses are generally better than UK horses but from a pure handicapping perspective it’s as if the two authorities are operating two entirely different systems.
Plenty of radical changes needed before we get parity I think...
Even if you sort the handicapping system, which they almost certainly wont to any worthwhile degree, the Irish dominance thing is still in large part down to their superb point to point scene. I don't know how on Earth you begin to turn the tables on that one. I love going to points here, great little afternoons out, wonderfully old skool betting rings with actual real life bookmaking taking place! Plenty of good racing too, but you're mostly watching horses in semi-retirement or glorified carthorses half the time. It's for the most part a hobby scene, whereas over there it's a proper part of the future of the sport.
Even if you sort the handicapping system, which they almost certainly wont to any worthwhile degree, the Irish dominance thing is still in large part down to their superb point to point scene.
Does that not reflect the breeding industries ?
Again, lack of investment/incentives from UK (Governments ?) play a part in this and that isn’t something that will ever be fully reversed.
As we’ve said, many many reasons why we are where we are but as punters we should use the current bias to help us...
Good news but the trend began some years ago so once again their reactive approach is very late in the day.
There are many reasons why Irish horses are generally better than UK horses but from a pure handicapping perspective it’s as if the two authorities are operating two entirely different systems.
Plenty of radical changes needed before we get parity I think...
The trend began at the top over a decade ago when Kauto and Denman were better than their peers and got big ratings.
They ran for many seasons and those that mixed it with them ended up with higher ratings because of it (Long Run, Imperial Commander etc).
The whole NH herd got brought along with it, and have remained too high ever since.
I believed the NH BHA handicapper for too long when he said Ireland was rating too low, and kept putting up Irish horses for Cheltenham.
About a month or so ago I thought it through and flipped the idea and decided Ireland were right and the UK NH handicappers have had it wrong for over a decade.
There's no problem with the UK Flat handicappers ratings they are fine, because the top horse flat ratings are tested annually worldwide and ratings issued globally for all the top horses.
NH doesn't have this global reach and doesnt have to produce global international classifications, or test their ratings sufficiently.
This drives Ireland, the UK and France to each do their own thing without any rigour of testing the ratings wider.
This leads to anomalies between them.
The Cheltenham Festival shows the imbalance, year on year.
The UK are rating their horses far too high.
The general NH stock in Britain is probably 5lb to 10lb too high.
The BHA need to acknowledge this and drop the ratings by 5lb to 10lb before next season starts in 3 weeks.
Or the status quo will continue.
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.”
- The best businesses realise this, and adapt and change to remain relevant.
Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 13 April 2021, 11:16 AM.
I think, at the very top end, the insane ratings given to the two superstars in the 1960’s is somehow forcing the handicappers hand in the modern game, when you watch the likes of Altior, Master Minded and Sprinter destroy their champion chase fields the media scrum that follows ‘they can’t be 3 stone worse than Arkle’ pushes ratings up and of course those that finish in behind, and the collateral form that follows, exaggerates the problem.
I agree a rip it up and start again approach is needed...
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