Originally posted by Lobos
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September Forum Yankee
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Originally posted by Istabraq View PostThe only opinion that really matters is that of Willie Mullins, he believes the horse stays or would not have taken in the RSA and having taken in the RSA the target this year has to be the Gold Cup.
I said it somewhere else a while back that I think Allaho is Gold Cup bound until he proves to Mullins that he doesn't get the Gold Cup trip...
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Originally posted by Istabraq View PostThe only opinion that really matters is that of Willie Mullins, he believes the horse stays or would not have taken in the RSA and having taken in the RSA the target this year has to be the Gold Cup.
I said it somewhere else a while back that I think Allaho is Gold Cup bound until he proves to Mullins that he doesn't get the Gold Cup trip...
And only a six year old , next year he could step up .
I'm happy enough to have him at 25-1.
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Originally posted by Istabraq View PostThe only opinion that really matters is that of Willie Mullins, he believes the horse stays or would not have taken in the RSA and having taken in the RSA the target this year has to be the Gold Cup.
I said it somewhere else a while back that I think Allaho is Gold Cup bound until he proves to Mullins that he doesn't get the Gold Cup trip...
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Shocked that Saint Roi hasn't made it into one of these yet... especially with Aramon out he looks the clear value there.
Aside from him, I really like the suggestion Captain Guinness for the Arkle.
Wouldn't be a fan of Allaho for the GC, it seems pretty 50/50 where his target will be in the first place, and to add to that that the GC will probably be more competitive than it has been for a few years anyway, concerns about whether he will stay the trip, more than enough for me to go against him at the minute.
I do like Defi for the Ryanair, given his form from last year pre-Cheltenham and that he does have previous festival form, I think there is more than enough reason to forgive his CC run. Always thought he was better over slightly further, but 14s seems like a bit of an insult to his ability to me.
The other one I'd throw into the hat is Fury Road for the stayers.
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I spent most of last season saying that Willie considered Allaho as a potential Gold Cup horse and that he would probably go for the RSA rather than the Marsh. Based on comments after the RSA you'd say that he would be prepared to change his mind but we won't know until Christmas at the earliest.
If he's come to hand and if all Willie's other horses are fit, he'll almost certainly be aimed at the Savills at Leopardstown and it will be no guide if he starts the season at 2m4f because that's the way the programme is constructed. Until then it's a high risk strategy backing him for the Ryanair because it's the race that you think he should go for.
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Originally posted by archie View PostI spent most of last season saying that Willie considered Allaho as a potential Gold Cup horse and that he would probably go for the RSA rather than the Marsh. Based on comments after the RSA you'd say that he would be prepared to change his mind but we won't know until Christmas at the earliest.
If he's come to hand and if all Willie's other horses are fit, he'll almost certainly be aimed at the Savills at Leopardstown and it will be no guide if he starts the season at 2m4f because that's the way the programme is constructed. Until then it's a high risk strategy backing him for the Ryanair because it's the race that you think he should go for.
I believe Allaho will end up in the Ryanair because I don't believe him to see out the Gold Cup trip, and until otherwise proven that will be my stubborn stance I've been wrong many a time before on here, and so be it if I am again
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Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostI think this could apply to a lot of horses, especially in my case and I'm sure in other members cases too. All the novice hurdlers for instance. I know you are a lot more sensible and usually don't touch them for a good while yet
I believe Allaho will end up in the Ryanair because I don't believe him to see out the Gold Cup trip, and until otherwise proven that will be my stubborn stance I've been wrong many a time before on here, and so be it if I am again
Betting strategies are entirely personal and I wouldn't criticise anyone for any bet - Ballyadam excepted, of course.
The other thing I'd say is that if you're betting because of a hunch, you might want to remind yourself that that is the strategy recommended in the TV ads of a major bookmaker.
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Originally posted by archie View PostMost on here are phlegmatic about it but one or two seem to get really angry with the trainer. Always amuses me that they know better.
Betting strategies are entirely personal and I wouldn't criticise anyone for any bet - Ballyadam excepted, of course.
The other thing I'd say is that if you're betting because of a hunch, you might want to remind yourself that that is the strategy recommended in the TV ads of a major bookmaker.
I'd call it more an educated guess, rather than a hunch, taking performances to date, breeding etc... into account
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Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostI think you secretly have a soft spot for Ballyadam
I'd call it more an educated guess, rather than a hunch, taking performances to date, breeding etc... into account
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Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostSurprised we haven't seen Bob Olinger in one yet, so he is my suggestion for September
Problem is with him though.. for a yankee, he could theoretically turn up in any of the three grade 1 novice hurdles at the festival.
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Real Steel in the Ryanair.
He didn't stay the trip in the last Gold Cup and I think it will be a better race this year so his chance has gone. He was performing best during the season over the intermediate trip and the Ryanair looks perfect for him. Nicholls at least knows how to win that one still too.
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