Dark horses for Cheltenham 2021

[nortonscoin200]

With the Festival less than seven months away - and serious action not too far over the horizon - maybe it's time to talk about some dark horses that could emerge as serious contenders next March.

One that interests me is Cedarwood Road who was last seen winning a listed 2m novice hurdle race at Naas two days before the Festival when he got up close home to beat Beacon Edge by a neck.

He's a five-year-old - a year younger than both Beacon Edge and Entoucas who was more than 4 lengths back in third.

Davy Russell gave CR a lovely hold-up ride but as the front two jumped the last it looked as though they had got away from him. CR hasn't got a blistering finish but he gradually reeled them in and stayed on to win going away.

In terms of comparative times it was comfortably the fastest race of the day on a card where The Very Man won over 3f further.

And it was very similar to Davy's first ride on CR in a 25-runner maiden at Leopardstown on Boxing Day when he again looked comfortable held up in midfield and stayed on remorselessly to win by 11 lengths.

Half an hour later Mount Leinster won another maiden over course and distance almost 2 1/2 seconds quicker while carrying 5lbs more - with Entoucas a 9 lengths second and Concertista and The Very Man further back.

Aspire Tower recorded an almost identical time to Mount Leinster in the Grade 2 Knight Frank juvenile hurdle which was the next race on the card. Aspire Tower was carrying 9lbs less than Cedarwood Road.

Anyway, I'm not too bothered with the times as I think there's every possibility a stronger pace would not inconvenience CR who has the look of a strong stayer rather than a speed horse. I could just see him slogging it out without giving an inch up that Cheltenham hill.

He's currently trained by Ger O'Loughlin for owner Chris Jones and will go novice chasing this season.

Here's what the trainer had to say just over 3 weeks ago:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/racing/arid-40022318.html

Cedarwood Road is 25-1 TWAR with Hills and 40-1 top price for the Arkle.

Personally, I'd want a bit more than 25s TWAR and he may well have a better chance in the Northern Trust novices handicap over 2m 4f or the Grand Annual.

I'd also love to see Davy on board at the Festival but he's probably going to be on something for Gordon/Giggs. There must also be a possibility that the owner moves him to De Bromhead or Elliott this season which would be interesting.

But whatever the future holds, Cedarwood Road could turn out to eclipse his hurdles mark of 143 over fences and is worth watching on his return.

[Lobos]

With the Festival less than seven months away - and serious action not too far over the horizon - maybe it's time to talk about some dark horses that could emerge as serious contenders next March.

One that interests me is Cedarwood Road who was last seen winning a listed 2m novice hurdle race at Naas two days before the Festival when he got up close home to beat Beacon Edge by a neck.

He's a five-year-old - a year younger than both Beacon Edge and Entoucas who was more than 4 lengths back in third.

Davy Russell gave CR a lovely hold-up ride but as the front two jumped the last it looked as though they had got away from him. CR hasn't got a blistering finish but he gradually reeled them in and stayed on to win going away.

In terms of comparative times it was comfortably the fastest race of the day on a card where The Very Man won over 3f further.

And it was very similar to Davy's first ride on CR in a 25-runner maiden at Leopardstown on Boxing Day when he again looked comfortable held up in midfield and stayed on remorselessly to win by 11 lengths.

Half an hour later Mount Leinster won another maiden over course and distance almost 2 1/2 seconds quicker while carrying 5lbs more - with Entoucas a 9 lengths second and Concertista and The Very Man further back.

Aspire Tower recorded an almost identical time to Mount Leinster in the Grade 2 Knight Frank juvenile hurdle which was the next race on the card. Aspire Tower was carrying 9lbs less than Cedarwood Road.

Anyway, I'm not too bothered with the times as I think there's every possibility a stronger pace would not inconvenience CR who has the look of a strong stayer rather than a speed horse. I could just see him slogging it out without giving an inch up that Cheltenham hill.

He's currently trained by Ger O'Loughlin for owner Chris Jones and will go novice chasing this season.

Here's what the trainer had to say just over 3 weeks ago:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/racing/arid-40022318.html

Cedarwood Road is 25-1 TWAR with Hills and 40-1 top price for the Arkle.

Personally, I'd want a bit more than 25s TWAR and he may well have a better chance in the Northern Trust novices handicap over 2m 4f or the Grand Annual.

I'd also love to see Davy on board at the Festival but he's probably going to be on something for Gordon/Giggs. There must also be a possibility that the owner moves him to De Bromhead or Elliott this season which would be interesting.

But whatever the future holds, Cedarwood Road could turn out to eclipse his hurdles mark of 143 over fences and is worth watching on his return.

Yep, like CR a lot. Put him up on here a couple of weeks ago. TWAR price taken. Not sure he's a dark horse but Diol Kerr is one to keep on side wherever he turns up. Turned Monkfish over easily last season over an inadequate 2 1/2 miles. The further he goes the better. Trainer thinks he'll go right to the top. Backed both of these TWAR 25/1 and 16/1.

[taylorch1990]

Maybe not dark horses but a few that missed last season could be forgotten horses. Two I have in mind are Not Many Left and Dickie Diver. Dickie Diver especially could go right to the top novice chasing imo. His fourth in the Albert Bartlett has been shown to be very strong form with the performances of Minella Indo Allaho and Lisnagar Oscar, and with him being a big horse if he's grown into his frame a bit more then I expect him to be a major player come the festival next year.

[Eggs]

.....I’ll nominate one from this years NH Chase - Springfield Fox of Tom George.

It was backed like a fancied horse but hit the first and unseated at 16th. Hasn?t been seen since, so no idea of its welfare and where it might be aimed but I?ll be watching when it does come out.

[Hardy Eustace]

King Roland. Should make a cracking chaser and am hoping Harry Fry's softly softly approach will pay dividends this season

[nortonscoin200]

Didn't mean to steal Lobos's thunder with Cedarwood Road.

Stumbled across him while having a look at the path Gordon Elliott's Festival handicap winners have taken on the road to glory in the last five years - hoping to pinpoint which one(s) will end up in the winners enclosure next March.

He's had 11 handicap victories since 2016 (this year's figure first): 4,1,3,1,2.

I couldn't really establish any striking similarities in their preparation although a few interesting facts emerged:

Six of them had 3 prep races in the season leading up to the Festival - all the others had more races, up to a maximum of 7.

Five of them were pretty highly tried in the build-up to Cheltenham - being beaten in competitive races with big pots which left their handicap mark largely intact.

Two of the three handicap chase winners were campaigned over shorter trips before Cheltenham.

And only 4 of the 11 had previously run at Cheltenham.

[Hardy Eustace]

Imperial Alcazar - had some decentplaced bumper form at listed level, took a while to get the hang of things over hurdles. Should make a better chaser. Could be one for novices handicap chase (if it doesn't get canned) for the same owner who won this years race.

Great thread btw!

[robith]

Not anything specific - but there's often something in the Bartlett that looks like it's gonna get lapped that kicks on massively the year after

[ComplyOrDie]

This'll bore a few of the regulars But mine is the same dark horse as last season, Annamix.

Unsure whether they'll be aiming at the QMCC/Ryanair or maybe even a handicap, but his chase debut was far and beyond anything he produced over hurdles. His breeding suggested he'd make a chaser, and no reason to suspect otherwise after absolutely hammering some next time out winners, including eventual Grand Annual winner, Chosen Mate, on his chase debut.

His chase debut produced a higher RPR than that of Chacun Pour Soi's Irish chase debut, now whether he can build on that remains to be seen, but I liked what I saw that day, his jumping was very good indeed for a debutante.

He is currently 25/1 (can be boosted) for any race or 50/1 for the QMCC and 40/1 for the Ryanair, personally not sure which would race would suit just yet, as we have little to go on for now.

Interesting, yet useless piece of information, his Great Grandsire (assume that's a thing) is the brilliant Shergar, through the dams side.

[Kevloaf]

Not that there are prizes for being first to mention a horse, but Kinloch Brae has been taking about Cedarwood Road for a while too ...

Can somebody design 'Dark Horse Fat Jockey' jumpers that we can order and wear

[Hardy Eustace]

Not that there are prizes for being first to mention a horse, but Kinloch Brae has been taking about Cedarwood Road for a while too ...

Can somebody design 'Dark Horse Fat Jockey' jumpers that we can order and wear

I'd be all over this like I am the drunk 20 year office clerk at the work Christmas party. Delicious.

[JackieMoon33]

Not that there are prizes for being first to mention a horse, but Kinloch Brae has been taking about Cedarwood Road for a while too ...

Can somebody design 'Dark Horse Fat Jockey' jumpers that we can order and wear

There should be a prize; please arrange one

[JackieMoon33]

Being a 'Dark Horse' is very subjective so it's difficult to quantify what exactly constitutes one. I find a lot of so called 'Dark Horses' are 'dark' because they're not that good, rather than having flown under the radar.

The 'darkest' horses I have in my diary section that have run in UK or Ireland would be the three below. They certainly have not had that much coverage in the public domain (including on here) and are very juicy prices too. They are trained by leading trainers which reduces their 'darkness' but their price and my perception of their ability is what matters most.

Keskonrisk - Joseph O’Brien - Supreme Novices Hurdle
Made an eye catching debut for Timmy Hyde before going to the sales and being bought for big money by Henrietta Knight for Mike Grech. Half bother to Grand Sancy so there is substance to the pedigree and I prefer the sire here.

Stattler - Willie Mullins - Albert Bartlett
Form in bumpers of 1-3-2 despite not being his arena. He’s an old fashioned stayer with a strong pedigree. He’s probably one that will be best over fences but he could be competitive over hurdles too. Form with Farouk D’alene mentioned above.

Ask For Glory - Paul Nicholls - RSA
Rewind two years ago and this fella was lining up in the Champion Bumper after an impressive debut at Chepstow where he’d posted very good figures. Nicholls is not known for having many festival bumper runners but he took his chance and finished 9th behind Envoi Allen in what proved to be one of the better bumpers in recent times. It was probably of non surprise that he was unable to get in the mix as he’d been bought to be a staying chaser for £280,000 after his impressive PtP win.

Fast forward to November 2019 and (after a customary wind op) he was pitched in on hurdles debut in a decent enough field over an inadequate 2m. He was still there pitching at the last where he was impeded by a faller and then was tenderly ridden home in fourth. The result was as expected and in true Nicholls ‘future staying chaser’ fashion, he was kept off the track until February 2020 where he reappeared over a more suitable 2m5f at Wincanton. He demolished a poor field that day leading from pretty much start to finish without getting out of second gear.

There is not a huge amount of form in the book but given the fact he was always a patient, long term prospect, it’s hardly surprising he wasn’t pitched in at the deep end again over hurdles. He looks like he possesses a real engine and has the size to make a chaser, especially with another summer to fill out. He’s also with the right trainer to make the most of this type of horse too. Whilst the AB looked good in 2020 and the RSA could be a hot race next season, it would not surprise me if Ask For Glory was better than his current price of 40/1 and could become a contender. Even as a cash out option his price will contract quickly due to the trainer and colours if he makes a successful start.

[Lobos]

Being a 'Dark Horse' is very subjective so it's difficult to quantify what exactly constitutes one. I find a lot of so called 'Dark Horses' are 'dark' because they're not that good, rather than having flown under the radar.

The 'darkest' horses I have in my diary section that have run in UK or Ireland would be the three below. They certainly have not had that much coverage in the public domain (including on here) and are very juicy prices too. They are trained by leading trainers which reduces their 'darkness' but their price and my perception of their ability is what matters most.

Keskonrisk - Joseph O’Brien - Supreme Novices Hurdle
Made an eye catching debut for Timmy Hyde before going to the sales and being bought for big money by Henrietta Knight for Mike Grech. Half bother to Grand Sancy so there is substance to the pedigree and I prefer the sire here.

Stattler - Willie Mullins - Albert Bartlett
Form in bumpers of 1-3-2 despite not being his arena. He’s an old fashioned stayer with a strong pedigree. He’s probably one that will be best over fences but he could be competitive over hurdles too. Form with Farouk D’alene mentioned above.

Ask For Glory - Paul Nicholls - RSA
Rewind two years ago and this fella was lining up in the Champion Bumper after an impressive debut at Chepstow where he’d posted very good figures. Nicholls is not known for having many festival bumper runners but he took his chance and finished 9th behind Envoi Allen in what proved to be one of the better bumpers in recent times. It was probably of non surprise that he was unable to get in the mix as he’d been bought to be a staying chaser for £280,000 after his impressive PtP win.

Fast forward to November 2019 and (after a customary wind op) he was pitched in on hurdles debut in a decent enough field over an inadequate 2m. He was still there pitching at the last where he was impeded by a faller and then was tenderly ridden home in fourth. The result was as expected and in true Nicholls ‘future staying chaser’ fashion, he was kept off the track until February 2020 where he reappeared over a more suitable 2m5f at Wincanton. He demolished a poor field that day leading from pretty much start to finish without getting out of second gear.

There is not a huge amount of form in the book but given the fact he was always a patient, long term prospect, it’s hardly surprising he wasn’t pitched in at the deep end again over hurdles. He looks like he possesses a real engine and has the size to make a chaser, especially with another summer to fill out. He’s also with the right trainer to make the most of this type of horse too. Whilst the AB looked good in 2020 and the RSA could be a hot race next season, it would not surprise me if Ask For Glory was better than his current price of 40/1 and could become a contender. Even as a cash out option his price will contract quickly due to the trainer and colours if he makes a successful start.

Lovely write up for three that are deffo dark horses. Think I may get those on board the Lobos festival train.

[Dessie the great]

Captain Guinneas in the arkle. Was travelling very well when being brought down, has only had three runs so plenty of improvement to come. Trainers horses always improve for a fence if going chasing on their second season (notebook and PTKO). Hard enough to see it not being there or thereabouts at a decent price