Cheltz Fest 2021 Behind Closed Doors ?

[Saxon Warrior]

No doubt I’m being influenced by what I’ve been told but always find it interesting seeing the difference between the actual quotes and the headlines and the non-quotes and assumptions being made in the rest of the article. Perhaps there are clearer quotes on this elsewhere but the ones in FM’s post do not actually confirm a race will be dropped.

Rhinestone,

That’s true enough.

What do you believe will happen?

[Saxon Warrior]

I agree SW, I can’t imagine they have ever considered losing a hurdle race and creating the chase.
The M Pipe is for conditionals and is the only 20f hurdle race all week, I’m not sure why that has even been mooted to go whereas the pointless 20f nov chase on day 1 has the Marsh, Plate and even Ryanair as alternatives.
I can’t believe they would consider losing an amateurs race either so it all points to the day 1 race for me...

Ista,

Four 2M4F chases sounds one too many, particularly when they are adding another 2M4F Chase for Mares, that would be five, if they kept the Novice Hcap Chase.

There isn’t an all-aged Novice Handicap Hurdle either, so it makes sense to drop the all-aged Novice Handicap Chase to keep the symmetry.

[Istabraq]

Ista,

Four 2M4F chases sounds one too many.

Some might argue it is 2 or 3 too many...

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Rhinestone,

That’s true enough.

What do you believe will happen?

No idea...haha. As you know I posted what I’ve been told and as I said as I am a few steps removed from the source I’d personally have it as a plausible as opposed to an outlandish rumour. Just for the craic based on who has told me and who has told him I’d happily back a 5 day Festival in 2021 at say 3/1 or bigger

[Istabraq]

RC - that bet has the look of an account closing bet to me.
Has to be on a par with backing next football manager or colour of the Queens underware at Ascot, you call it right they assume you have info and will shut you down...

[Spectre]

Whilst I agree with the logic, and that it's most likely the Northern Trust will go, I'd bin the Fred Winter as the most pointless race of the week. We now get small field Triumph Hurdles, and a group of horses that generally go on to achieve the square root of nothing.

The flip side is that the Northern Trust has actually been a really good platform for future winners, and just from last season we have both Galvin and Imperial Aura being talked about as contenders for open graded races.

Aramax actually may be an exception this season, but based on how easily he won the Fred Winter he should have been in the Triumph anyway. The fact remains that when you compare the future performances of those that ran in the Northern Trust to the Fred Winter it's like chalk and cheese.

For this season though, I wouldn't drop a race, and I'd start earlier on one of the days. Then look at how successful the new Mares Chase was and what horses it attracts.

[Istabraq]

Agree with the sentiment Spectre but I’d argue the nov handicap chase produces good horses.
A Plus Tard routed his field and went close in a Ryanair so he would be the exception, I’m struggling to think of any others who went on to be better than 145 horses regardless of the marks they were given...

[Spectre]

Agree with the sentiment Spectre but I’d argue the nov handicap chase produces good horses.
A Plus Tard routed his field and went close in a Ryanair so he would be the exception, I’m struggling to think of any others who went on to be better than 145 horses regardless of the marks they were given...

Imperial Aura (157) is, and Galvin, who needs to be assessed by the UK handicapper, will also be a similar mark. Both will be contenders for Festival open G1/2's this season.

I've looked at the previous three years and these are the horses that I found:

A Plus Tard 163
Riders On The Storm 162
Mr Whittaker 153
Any Second Now 152
Gold Present 155
Bun Doran 160

In the same period I can't find a single Fred Winter horse to hit 150, and barely any that made the 140's.

I couldn't be bothered to back any further, but we also had Irish Cavalier and Bun Doran that were in the 160's I'm sure.

Definitely chalk and cheese in terms of quality. If a race has to go, the Fred winter should definitely be the one.

[Ray]

Keep the fred winter, its easy to win from a betting perspective just back a talented elliot nag that hes sneaking in

[Istabraq]

Riders on the Storm I forgot, apologies.
I may be wrong but I have it in my mind the others were given lofty ratings without running to them thereafter, of course there’s still time for the class of 2019/2020 but the classes prior to that have, for me, proved to be average animals...

[Saxon Warrior]

Whilst I agree with the logic, and that it's most likely the Northern Trust will go, I'd bin the Fred Winter as the most pointless race of the week. We now get small field Triumph Hurdles, and a group of horses that generally go on to achieve the square root of nothing.

The flip side is that the Northern Trust has actually been a really good platform for future winners, and just from last season we have both Galvin and Imperial Aura being talked about as contenders for open graded races.

Aramax actually may be an exception this season, but based on how easily he won the Fred Winter he should have been in the Triumph anyway. The fact remains that when you compare the future performances of those that ran in the Northern Trust to the Fred Winter it's like chalk and cheese.

For this season though, I wouldn't drop a race, and I'd start earlier on one of the days. Then look at how successful the new Mares Chase was and what horses it attracts.

I would go the other way on this Spectre.

The Triumph Hurdle for me is finally a Grade 1 and not a 4yo Grand National.

The fields for the Triumph are fine, with around 15 runners in the last 10 years, that is plenty for a proper Grade 1.

The Boodles being an open handicap still gives horses in the 140-145 bracket the chance to choose Triumph or Boodles, knowing the Boodles will carry 22 runners and the Triumph less.

Triumph Runners in the last 11 years.
2020 - 13
2019 - 13
2018 - 9
2017 - 15
2016 - 15
2015 - 16
2014 - 15
2013 - 17
2012 - 17
2011 - 23
2010 - 16

I think Farclas's win in 2018 with only 9 runners highlighted the low number for that race that is used to suggest the race lacks numbers.

Take out the high 23 and low 9 as outliers, then every race in the other 9 years has had 13 to 17 runners which is very consistent and better than a load of Arkles, Marsh Chases, Champion Chases etc, in the same period.

I cant see the point of only having a 4yo Grand National with 26 runners in it, for people wanting to buy 3yos from the flat to go hurdling it just takes out the only proper handicap race for them.

[Spectre]

The counter-argument is fair SW. I just have a problem with the quality and future horses it throws out. Of all the races at the Festival its the worst.

I'm probably a bit of a luddite, but I want the quality and standard of racing to be as high as possible.

[archie]

I'd ban 3yo hurdles altogether so I have absolutely no interest in juveniles at the Festival. That said, they can bin the novice handicap chase as well. If you're not getting in the Marsh or the Plate then you don't belong at Cheltenham.

In addition to the Mares Chase (which I'm not certain will attract great quality because you don't easily risk your favourite mares), I'd look at a Mares Bumper (for which there would be enough contenders), a 4yo bumper (making the main bumper 5-7yo) and even a Cross Country handicap.

[Quevega]

I'd ban 3yo hurdles altogether so I have absolutely no interest in juveniles at the Festival. That said, they can bin the novice handicap chase as well. If you're not getting in the Marsh or the Plate then you don't belong at Cheltenham.

In addition to the Mares Chase (which I'm not certain will attract great quality because you don't easily risk your favourite mares), I'd look at a Mares Bumper (for which there would be enough contenders), a 4yo bumper (making the main bumper 5-7yo) and even a Cross Country handicap.

Those race suggestions are not very appetising archie.
You'd be leaving to beat the traffic for sure.

[Kautostar]

In addition to the Mares Chase (which I'm not certain will attract great quality because you don't easily risk your favourite mares), I'd look at a Mares Bumper (for which there would be enough contenders), a 4yo bumper (making the main bumper 5-7yo) and even a Cross Country handicap.

A little bit of sick just came up into my mouth