Cheltz Fest 2021 Behind Closed Doors ?

[IstabraqBarRegular]

I have had a house booked for several months and hopefully I'll use it and watch the racing from a pub
Interesting thing is that the trains to Cheltenham middle of March are already full so people are buying tickets hoping to use their pre-booked hotels and houses
Assume pubs will be pretty busy around Cheltenham for the 4 days, assuming that is they are open

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Didn't know there was a testing option for coming back to Ireland now which removes one obstacle on irish side. Not beyond NEPHET to conjure up something new though.

In UK it is full lockdown to mid Feb in England and Glos would need to be dropped out of Tier4 between then and start of festival for Irish horses to be allowed in. It is tight imo.

Considering elite sport is continuing inside Tier 4 what are you reading that says Irish horse’s couldn’t travel over even if Gloucestershire was still in Tier 4, which as Ista says I think is unlikely?

[Jorvik]

But the epidemiological evidence is documented that not even the vaccine is a way out, getting cases down to zero is, and the govt just going "well, we can't tell people what to do" when 70k people are dead is unacceptable in my view

Getting cases down to zero is what? If the answer is 'impossible' then you'd be correct. It will never, ever be zero, nobody with even a slight grasp on reality is suggesting it even could be. Vaccines on such matters are about managing risk, which is what the government are doing. Whatever I think of how they've handled it so far, when they have vaccinated the key groups identified in last nights speech, they have in theory taken out the majority of the risk based on the death data.
It will probably have to be managed in a similar way to influenza from here onwards. We have a vaccine, but people still get flu, people still die of flu, both of those things will likely forever remain the case. Society knows this and lives with it, having done what it can to mitigate the risk of the most vulnerable suffering. That will always be the case with this too.

[ToniC]

Didn't know there was a testing option for coming back to Ireland now which removes one obstacle on irish side. Not beyond NEPHET to conjure up something new though.

In UK it is full lockdown to mid Feb in England and Glos would need to be dropped out of Tier4 between then and start of festival for Irish horses to be allowed in. It is tight imo.

I’m not really up on the different iterations of shutdowns in the UK tbh, but why would there be a requirement for Cheltenham to not be in tier 4 in order for the Irish to be able to participate? Even with things as they are there now, sport is continuing as it always has been in terms of the actual participants isn’t it?

[Quevega]

Didn't know there was a testing option for coming back to Ireland now which removes one obstacle on irish side. Not beyond NEPHET to conjure up something new though.

In UK it is full lockdown to mid Feb in England and Glos would need to be dropped out of Tier4 between then and start of festival for Irish horses to be allowed in. It is tight imo.

People and animals have been travelling between tiers and across borders for weeks and months. It's allowed if it's essential for work or for elite Sport.
Each elite Sport has to follow it's own protocol's. The tiers have never been a factor in this.

We've had one wobble over Christmas, due to the new strain and likely also due to Brexit. When travel was restricted between the UK and Ireland, and even that was instigated by the Irish.

You must be the only person in the World not to have fully understood Covid19 rules
And Bigfish sucked you into the UK horse multiples bet as well

To be fair, No Irish runners could still happen, as people have said already.
Something else might pop up just before the festival to throw a spanner.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Yes, of course they may decide to refund every single one in the case of, but anyone who feels they will be shortchanged by a bookmaker who refuses to consider a refund on any Irish horse that potentially doesn’t come over is deluded.

Not sure you have been following this thread over the last week or so but a few of us have argued the case for refunds (others disagree, fair enough) should Irish horse’s not attend (something that I believe is unlikely anyway) and do not think it is anyway deluded to think so. The fact that some bookies are already saying they will give justice refunds is not because they are in any way benevolent but is due to the shit storm they know will ensue if they don’t offer a concession.

As I have said many times I think there is a fair argument that Covid-19 can be considered a force majeure event i.e. something way beyond the typical ways you could lose your money betting antepost, and as such it is not unfair to expect such bets to be refunded. I accept this is a grey area of course and something that might need to be fought for if certain bookies do not play ball. Delusional it is not

Considering most people’s books are unsurprisingly significantly slanted towards Irish runners I’m surprised so many seem ok with the bookies not refunding.

Anyway we can return to this glorious conversation if this unlikely nightmare scenario was to play out

[Old Vic]

People and animals have been travelling between tiers and across borders for weeks and months. It's allowed if it's essential for work or for elite Sport.
Each elite Sport has to follow it's own protocol's. The tiers have never been a factor in this.

We've had one wobble over Christmas, due to the new strain and likely also due to Brexit. When travel was restricted between the UK and Ireland, and even that was instigated by the Irish.

You must be the only person in the World not to have fully understood Covid19 rules
And Bigfish sucked you into the UK horse multiples bet as well

To be fair, No Irish runners could still happen, as people have said already.
Something else might pop up just before the festival to throw a spanner.

Always happy to get educated on here. and protocol confirms Q's superior understanding

http://media.britishhorseracing.com/..._Protocols.pdf

and

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/568/schedule/3/2020-11-21

(list only runs to end of Jan)

[robith]

Getting cases down to zero is what? If the answer is 'impossible' then you'd be correct. It will never, ever be zero, nobody with even a slight grasp on reality is suggesting it even could be. Vaccines on such matters are about managing risk, which is what the government are doing. Whatever I think of how they've handled it so far, when they have vaccinated the key groups identified in last nights speech, they have in theory taken out the majority of the risk based on the death data.
It will probably have to be managed in a similar way to influenza from here onwards. We have a vaccine, but people still get flu, people still die of flu, both of those things will likely forever remain the case. Society knows this and lives with it, having done what it can to mitigate the risk of the most vulnerable suffering. That will always be the case with this too.

"Zero COVID" is a blanket term for an approach of isolating it, locking it out etc. The evidence of the 1918 pandemic showed places that locked down thge longest and reduced cases the most had the best long term outcomes.

Vaccines are all well and good, and it's astonishing to see how quickly it's been pulled off, a truly historic achievement, but they take a long time to fully get working. It took ten years to get rid of smallpox and 30 to get rid of polio. 7 billion people in the world - only 2 billion doses

And it's nothing like the flu because the morality rate is so much higher and its longer term effects are much more pronounced.

Further we had near misses with swine flu, SARS, MERS. Getting this stuff right is essential for the next pandemic (look at countries who've dealt with it well and there's a high correlation with those who fought off ebola or SARS) which might not be quite as generous.

The vaccine isn't a magic bullet, nor just giving it to the over 70s can we go "job done". It's the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end imo. But life might be closer to normal if we had a better and enforced T&T system, rather than a ?12 billion app that doesn't work

I'll shut up now, cos no one agrees with me, or wants to hear so let's get back to racing!

[Lobos]

Getting cases down to zero is what? If the answer is 'impossible' then you'd be correct. It will never, ever be zero, nobody with even a slight grasp on reality is suggesting it even could be. Vaccines on such matters are about managing risk, which is what the government are doing. Whatever I think of how they've handled it so far, when they have vaccinated the key groups identified in last nights speech, they have in theory taken out the majority of the risk based on the death data.
It will probably have to be managed in a similar way to influenza from here onwards. We have a vaccine, but people still get flu, people still die of flu, both of those things will likely forever remain the case. Society knows this and lives with it, having done what it can to mitigate the risk of the most vulnerable suffering. That will always be the case with this too.

Exactly my thinking Jorvic. Once we have vaccinated the necessary groups then there is no justification why we can't reopen albeit with say T1 rules of social distancing, masks, table service and just being clean. Whether we can vaccinate people within the given timescale is the issue. If we can, then there is a good possibility that Cheltenham will go ahead with spectators albeit very limited capacity.

[BookieBasher]

Exactly my thinking Jorvic. Once we have vaccinated the necessary groups then there is no justification why we can't reopen albeit with say T1 rules of social distancing, masks, table service and just being clean. Whether we can vaccinate people within the given timescale is the issue. If we can, then there is a good possibility that Cheltenham will go ahead with spectators albeit very limited capacity.

As a country right now we’re basically in Tier 5 for the next month or 2. Even if all the elderly and at risk are vaccinated by March (and I hope they are for my parents well being) I can’t see the Government dropping by more than a tier every few weeks or longer. I honestly believe that no Sport will be viewable for any of us until the summer. Hope I’m wrong for all our sakes but it wouldn’t come as a surprise

[Liam301287]

I reckon they will be Cheltenham. But i come to terms there be no spectators this year. Just Horses and there owners. The difference between this year and 2001 there be more chance it wont be all cancelled.

[charlie]

Exactly my thinking Jorvic. Once we have vaccinated the necessary groups then there is no justification why we can't reopen albeit with say T1 rules of social distancing, masks, table service and just being clean. Whether we can vaccinate people within the given timescale is the issue. If we can, then there is a good possibility that Cheltenham will go ahead with spectators albeit very limited capacity.

They cannot vaccinate enough people quick enough for March Lobos, it's as simple as that. They promised millions of vaccines pre Xmas and reached 400k. Classic over promise, under deliver tactics from a woefully inept government that I wouldn't trust to run a bath. We have now reached 1.3m vaccines. Boris wants to be vaccinating 2m people per week by the end of Jan, but that means only 60% of those most vulnerable in risk groups 1-4 would be vaccinated, and that's by mid-Feb IF all goes to plan, which is a huge IF and it inevitably wont as per their pandemic track record. We will be in lockdown till at least the end of Feb and they have stated we will then enter regional tiered systems. There is no way they will drop into tiers 1 and 2 in time for Cheltenham, zero chance.

[charlie]

Will be interesting to see what decision HRI make on Wednesday re Gordon taking runners to Chepstow. We could have our answer re travel plans to UK, logistics, quarantine etc.

[Can't Catch Me]

Re vaccinations, the target groups they hope to have done by mid Feb equates to approx 13.4m people (number of doses not specified). As of December 27 the UK had vaccinated 950k. We need to average 1.9m a week to hit the target vs the current rate of 0.3m a week. Not impossible, but a huge uplift in what they are currently able to do.

How would you price it?! Not getting the 13.4m done by mid Feb is surely heavy odds on.

[Istabraq]

We need to average 1.9m a week to hit the target vs the current rate of 0.3m a week. Not impossible, but a huge uplift in what they are currently able to do.

How would you price it?! Not getting the 13.4m done by mid Feb is surely heavy odds on.

I’m largely guessing here but I can’t imagine wholesale/maximum output manufacturing of vaccines was considered prior to regulatory approval, committing to millions of doses with a risk that approval isn’t given would have been madness especially for the Oxford one which is a non profit venture.
I suspect the ‘full steam ahead’ button was only pushed (in Oxford) six days ago so ramping up vaccinations to the required levels shouldn’t be as tricky as people fear...