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Sorry Saxon, but that's demonstrably untrue. It is proven across multiple countries on multiple viruses to work.
But what it requires is government effort and people to obey instructions, which is where we really come unstuck. They didn't even put the data in a proper database.
That and we spent the summer paying people to go to restaurants.
The money spent on it was wasted because it was given out to the govt's mates with no oversight
I appreciate our difference of opinion on it, and I am prepared to be persuaded that it is a wonderful thing.
Where is it working in Europe? Is there a positive result locally that countries need to adopt?
I appreciate our difference of opinion on it, and I am prepared to be persuaded that it is a wonderful thing.
Where is it working in Europe? Is there a positive result locally that countries need to adopt?
The issue with looking at it through Europe is there's a lot of mitigating factors, mainly that countries that successfully got on top of it with T&T - Greece, Germany, Belgium, took an economic punt on rapidly opening up the economy in the summer to get through a winter spike and lockdown - which has come true. The time to try and go Zero COVID was summer, but governments took the economic route, which I can't totally blame them for. Also Germany is now having a big problem with far right COVID deniers causing peaks in places like Saxony.
But even a country like France which also has a terrible T&T still has better numbers than us.
But if you look at patterns in other European countries you'll see lots of mini peaks, as cases spike, they identify, and respond bringing them down. Whereas our curves always go exponential throwing us back into national lockdown over and over.
But the epidemiological evidence is documented that not even the vaccine is a way out, getting cases down to zero is, and the govt just going "well, we can't tell people what to do" when 70k people are dead is unacceptable in my view
I am increasingly convinced Cheltenham will go ahead without Irish horses.
If it comes to pass I don't believe this is grounds for voiding antepost bets and in truth bookies probably have more antepost bets on Irish horses in their books than GB ones. The outcry for justice refunds will be huge but there is also an opportunity here.
And apologies for my effusive tone - there's just a lot of evidence of how to deal with diseases like this, and our govt has just ignored it, eye wide into oblivion and it's just..........exhausting
I am increasingly convinced Cheltenham will go ahead without Irish horses.
If it comes to pass I don't believe this is grounds for voiding antepost bets and in truth bookies probably have more antepost bets on Irish horses in their books than GB ones. The outcry for justice refunds will be huge but there is also an opportunity here.
I am increasingly convinced Cheltenham will go ahead without Irish horses.
If it comes to pass I don't believe this is grounds for voiding antepost bets and in truth bookies probably have more antepost bets on Irish horses in their books than GB ones. The outcry for justice refunds will be huge but there is also an opportunity here.
I hope you're off the mark here.
What is accelerating that line of thinking?
I'm not that concerned at all at the moment now I know racing is going ahead as before... I know 'racing' isn't the sharpest in terms of forward thinking, but the people that matter MUST be thinking about this already...
The combination of 'us' leaving the EU and COVID are certainly factors, but really, I'm not that concerned yet? Not enough to start backing British horses... I don't think landing a nice multiple would compensate for just how crap the week would actually be. It'd need to be better than nice anyway
And apologies for my effusive tone - there's just a lot of evidence of how to deal with diseases like this, and our govt has just ignored it, eye wide into oblivion and it's just..........exhausting
I think its going to take time before Track and Trace can be a useful thing in the UK.
With 400K positive tests per week, thats maybe up to 4M that have been in close contact per week?
That does seem unrealistic to be tracing and isolating at the moment.
We need to police borders better, we are a hub airport destination for the world, where other countries do not have the size of problem on this, that we have.
Hopefully we will stop being as big a hub in this lockdown.
Here's to people behaving properly, wherever they are, and helping us all along our way.
I am positive - betting opportunity of a lifetime and insurance if wrong.
Kev - Id be happy to be wrong from a spectacle point of view.
For Irish horses to run at Cheltenham both countries need to change their current policies. At present trend is towards increased restrictions and I am sensing more vocal calls for border closures etc.Additionally there is bugger all goodwill towards horse racing and Cheltenham in particular given so many were convinced by MSM that it was a super spreader event last year. The BHA could play with shoving it back a month but then that just wrecks Aintree or Punchestown. So faced with the choice of no Cheltenham or Cheltenham without the Irish and a few French horses what will they do ?
I am increasingly convinced Cheltenham will go ahead without Irish horses.
If it comes to pass I don't believe this is grounds for voiding antepost bets and in truth bookies probably have more antepost bets on Irish horses in their books than GB ones. The outcry for justice refunds will be huge but there is also an opportunity here.
Why? The GB travel ban is over effective tomorrow, instead requiring people entering from GB to get a negative test before travel and then another 5 days later. There’s something massive being made out of something very little IMO with this no Irish thing, I’d put shorter odds on the festival not going ahead at all. The only way I could see no Irish horses is a similar scenario to last time where something panics our government at the last minute causing them to pause travel whilst they get their head around a way forward as the did before Christmas.
Why? The GB travel ban is over effective tomorrow, instead requiring people entering from GB to get a negative test before travel and then another 5 days later. There’s something massive being made out of something very little IMO with this no Irish thing, I’d put shorter odds on the festival not going ahead at all. The only way I could see no Irish horses is a similar scenario to last time where something panics our government at the last minute causing them to pause travel whilst they get their head around a way forward as the did before Christmas.
I think timings wise Cheltenham being in mid-March is going to be a pretty decent time considering the 6 week lockdown is starting now. We also have the potential for a decent number of people being vaccinated end of February. I would say the risk is as small as it could be because of these developments.
I think timings wise Cheltenham being in mid-March is going to be a pretty decent time considering the 6 week lockdown is starting now. We also have the potential for a decent number of people being vaccinated end of February. I would say the risk is as small as it could be because of these developments.
I agree. Specifically pertaining to the Irish issue, I just think people are really overreacting to what was a temporary reaction to a freak & unprecedented occurrence with this mutant strain from the irish government last time. The fact there is now a strict but established protocol in place for travel to go ahead safely probably helps if anything.
Didn't know there was a testing option for coming back to Ireland now which removes one obstacle on irish side. Not beyond NEPHET to conjure up something new though.
In UK it is full lockdown to mid Feb in England and Glos would need to be dropped out of Tier4 between then and start of festival for Irish horses to be allowed in. It is tight imo.
I agree. Specifically pertaining to the Irish issue, I just think people are really overreacting to what was a temporary reaction to a freak & unprecedented occurrence with this mutant strain from the irish government last time. The fact there is now a strict but established protocol in place for travel to go ahead safely probably helps if anything.
Exactly, agree with all that, I was also only commenting in relation to the Irish travel issues, don’t want to be drawn into the separate crowd conversation...haha
I'm not that concerned at all at the moment now I know racing is going ahead as before... I know 'racing' isn't the sharpest in terms of forward thinking, but the people that matter MUST be thinking about this already...
The combination of 'us' leaving the EU and COVID are certainly factors, but really, I'm not that concerned yet? Not enough to start backing British horses... I don't think landing a nice multiple would compensate for just how crap the week would actually be. It'd need to be better than nice anyway
I have to agree wholeheartedly with Kev here.
People will put 2 and 2 together and come up with an answer of ‘there’s 50,000+ daily reasons at the moment why Irish horses won’t be allowed to travel over’.
But that has very, very little to do with how the Irish/English authorities would put a fail safe and strongly cohesive plan together to have every single Irish horse over. They’ll have been planning for many contingencies for weeks now - this being foremost at the top of the list. I’m not suggesting for one minute that Irish horses WON’T be allowed to travel, but there’s little evidence that we know of so far to advance the case that they won’t be allowed to.
Last night’s PM announcement was, believe, fairly critical in factoring in where we are likely to be, come Festival time, and it’s fair to assume that the lack of any announcement at all is encouraging for all Irish horses to travel over, with all contingencies in place.
On your other point about Irish horses not travelling over is not grounds for voiding any ante post bets, as much as it pains for me to even suggest it (as I, like thousands of others, have ante post bets on Irish horses) - the bookmakers literally owe us nothing. And I mean that. I’m not even trying to sound facetious or harsh, it’s just a fact, and they are all covered in their terms and conditions and multiple reams of legal small print. Yes, of course they may decide to refund every single one in the case of, but anyone who feels they will be shortchanged by a bookmaker who refuses to consider a refund on any Irish horse that potentially doesn’t come over is deluded.
In UK it is full lockdown to mid Feb in England and Glos would need to be dropped out of Tier4 between then and start of festival for Irish horses to be allowed in. It is tight imo.
The numbers in Cheltenham/Cotswolds have never been bad, currently around 200-250 positive tests per 100,000, compare that to some areas of Northern Ireland that are running at 1300 and London around 1000 and there are no doubt other areas up and down the country similarly high, Gloucestershire should be one of those areas that is down tiered earlier than most.
The way the numbers are running they are predicting Northern England is around a month behind the South, so the North is far less likely to get a tier change in time for Cheltenham, there is a very small chance the South will see a tier change in line with Gloucestershire which may allow members living there to attend.
I appreciate there are more people who are negative on this than positive, but as I said before I'll retain hope until someone says it can't/won't happen...
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