Cheltz Fest 2021 Behind Closed Doors ?

[SizingJohn]

If the Irish don't travel, there would have to be some races with very good value where the Irish are strong favourites. The mares and Mares novice hurdles for starters. Might have to stay digging a bit further into the markets for the British runners with a chance here if this happens

[Istabraq]

Rhinestone_Cowboy

For me yes, ante post is ante post, if the event doesn’t take place then all bets must be refunded, if the even takes place without your selections running, for whatever reason, you do it in, you’re unlucky but you fo it in.
On your basis is there a case for Laurina and Top of the Game bets to be refunded ?

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Rhinestone_Cowboy

For me yes, ante post is ante post, if the event doesn’t take place then all bets must be refunded, if the even takes place without your selections running, for whatever reason, you do it in, you’re unlucky but you fo it in.
On your basis is there a case for Laurina and Top of the Game bets to be refunded ?

They could do it based on entries, most (if not all) of which should he known before any decision is made. So no refunds on injured horses, which is of course fair

[Lobos]

We all need to really think about this. If, as Ista is saying, the bookies do not return bets on Irish AP horses if they are not allowed to travel (which may well happen according to some), then we should surely think about stopping betting Irish horses and lumping on the English to cover the huge amount of money we will lose on all the bets previously placed. Scary stuff but something that needs to be taken into account surely??

[Rooster Booster]

For clarity the voiding of all bets, UK and Irish, as Lobos has predicted, will not happen.
Back in foot and mouth year travel bans were issued firstly on French about a month before the festival and then on Irish horses about two weeks before the festival, there was never any discussion about voiding of bets because these bets were placed on ante post terms

The festival is a fundamentally different beast than it was back then. And the social attitudes to problem gambling also. Ante post betting is much bigger and it has become a real game of cat and mouse between punters and the firms every time a potential Cheltenham horse runs. The focus and attention is vast and no other event provides the firms with more free advertising. The betting firms are embracing this with vigour. It is food and drink to them and is now very much part of their DNA. In a scenario where the festival goes ahead but without the Irish horses I believe they will void all bets and reform markets. The least likely scenario is not refunding bets on Irish horses. There are two strong commercial reasons why they will refund these bets. 1) reputational damage of not doing so, at a time when the entire industry is worrying about gambling addiction. This would be seen by the wider world as pure exploitation of the vulnerable and profiting from the virus. 2) erosion of trust. The firms know that Cheltenham is now 12 months a year and brings all sorts of other traffic through their doors. Erosion of trust would cost them far more moving forward than they would gain from claiming these bets.

There are all sorts of complications regarding how to treat the remaining bets. The most likely scenario for me is they will also be voided, but the industry may come up with a creative alternative. There is a small chance the British bets will be honoured as a long term commercial loss leader with the caveat that it won’t be repeated but I doubt it. The terms of the firms insurance policies may also have a bearing on how the remaining bets are handled. The firms are run by accountants not bookmakers and they will be taking both short and long term profits into consideration.

[Quevega]

We all need to really think about this. If, as Ista is saying, the bookies do not return bets on Irish AP horses if they are not allowed to travel (which may well happen according to some), then we should surely think about stopping betting Irish horses and lumping on the English to cover the huge amount of money we will lose on all the bets previously placed. Scary stuff but something that needs to be taken into account surely??

Or you could just lump on the UK to win the Prestbury Cup.

Or Henderson/Nicholls top UK trainer

[Rooster Booster]

Or you could just lump on the UK to win the Prestbury Cup.

Or Henderson/Nicholls top UK trainer

Or Skelton

[Quevega]

In fact someone request a bet, Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott to train 0 winners at the 2021 festival.
For very little layout, you may be able to cover a lot of potential losses.

[Lobos]

In fact someone request a bet, Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott to train 0 winners at the 2021 festival.
For very little layout, you may be able to cover a lot of potential losses.

Great shout!

[Istabraq]

They could do it based on entries, most (if not all) of which should he known before any decision is made. So no refunds on injured horses, which is of course fair

Why would any owner/trainer voluntarily inform the media/public about a horses injury in that basis ?
Just sit on the machine and wait for someone to keep filling the back side on the exchange and hoover up everything you can knowing a horse won't run...

[Lobos]

The festival is a fundamentally different beast than it was back then. And the social attitudes to problem gambling also. Ante post betting is much bigger and it has become a real game of cat and mouse between punters and the firms every time a potential Cheltenham horse runs. The focus and attention is vast and no other event provides the firms with more free advertising. The betting firms are embracing this with vigour. It is food and drink to them and is now very much part of their DNA. In a scenario where the festival goes ahead but without the Irish horses I believe they will void all bets and reform markets. The least likely scenario is not refunding bets on Irish horses. There are two strong commercial reasons why they will refund these bets. 1) reputational damage of not doing so, at a time when the entire industry is worrying about gambling addiction. This would be seen by the wider world as pure exploitation of the vulnerable and profiting from the virus. 2) erosion of trust. The firms know that Cheltenham is now 12 months a year and brings all sorts of other traffic through their doors. Erosion of trust would cost them far more moving forward than they would gain from claiming these bets.

There are all sorts of complications regarding how to treat the remaining bets. The most likely scenario for me is they will also be voided, but the industry may come up with a creative alternative. There is a small chance the British bets will be honoured as a long term commercial loss leader with the caveat that it won’t be repeated but I doubt it. The terms of the firms insurance policies may also have a bearing on how the remaining bets are handled. The firms are run by accountants not bookmakers and they will be taking both short and long term profits into consideration.

Absolutely spot on in my view. Return ALL bets and reform markets would be best for all parties in the short and long run. I'm going with this scenario so I'm happy to continue punting. Right, 2pts more on Concertista........

[Kevloaf]

Wasn't it more fun when equine flu was all we had to worry about

[Bigfish]

We all need to really think about this. If, as Ista is saying, the bookies do not return bets on Irish AP horses if they are not allowed to travel (which may well happen according to some), then we should surely think about stopping betting Irish horses and lumping on the English to cover the huge amount of money we will lose on all the bets previously placed. Scary stuff but something that needs to be taken into account surely??

By George.. I think you may have something there.

[charlie]

The notion that bookies will return bets placed under ante post rules is as ridiculous IMO as Hendo announcing he thinks Santini has enough speed to win a champion chase.

[Kevloaf]

We all need to really think about this. If, as Ista is saying, the bookies do not return bets on Irish AP horses if they are not allowed to travel (which may well happen according to some), then we should surely think about stopping betting Irish horses and lumping on the English to cover the huge amount of money we will lose on all the bets previously placed. Scary stuff but something that needs to be taken into account surely??

....and then after you've lumped on all these GB horses, the Irish turn up and you've wasted more money than you would have?


Most sensible people will be waiting for NRNB now anyway for anything they're "lumping" on anything, Irish or otherwise.



Over compensating for "no Irish runners" is just as dangerous and not guaranteed to be good value or a good idea. A few permed multi's as Bigfish suggested is the most sensible option if anyone is worried.