Analysis - Previous Festival Form

[Hardy Eustace]

Thank you everyone for some truly excellent work. I have thoroughly enjoyed reading throguh all of it. Jandil and Andy dufresne are the two biggest takeaways for me and I will be giving plenty of consideration to backing both (either for the stayers and Arkle respectively at bigger prices) or just TWAR (20/1 hills for Jandil and 16's skybet for Andy Dufresne). Outstanding work guys

[Spectre]

Thanks once again guys. Another herculean effort that has produced outstanding and compelling results.

As I mentioned in a previous comment on the thread, it would be interesting to see if there are any patterns that emerge for the horses that didn't run at the previous Festival. Particularly in relation to why they didn't such as injury or setback. Certain trainers MO. Other specific races or Festivals that we should be looking at. Etc, etc. Are there any patterns overall, or any nuances that are race specific.

As a more general thought. The analysis from this thread, and others needs amalgamating into a sticky thread at the top, or possibly better still in to a members only section. There is so much valuable analysis on here, but after time it gets really hard to find.

[archie]

I'm not a fan of too many 'sticky' threads, especially when it prevents unread threads showing on the first screen.

Maybe stats and analysis should have it's own sub-forum that, like betting diaries, is limited to signed in members.

[nortonscoin200]

EDITED STATS AFTER MISTAKE SPOTTED BY LOBOS

Just started having a look at the 18 Cheltenham Festival winners this year who did not appear at last year's Festival.

Even among these horses 44 per cent of them (8 of the 18) have strong past form at Cheltenham. Six of them were previous course winners and another was 2nd twice at the track last season, albeit on the new course rather than the old course on which he won at the Festival.

One other - It Came To Pass - was still in contention when he fell 3 out in the Foxhunters 4 years ago (thanks to Lobos for pointing this out)

Of the 10 horses who won at the Festival on their track debut this year two facts are significant:

9 of them were trained in Ireland.
6 of them won novice events and were - with the exception of Ravenhill - at an early stage in their career.

The bottom line is that 18 of the 28 festival winners this year ( 64 per cent) either ran at the 2019 Festival or had strong track form.

And let's remember that the 2020 festival produced the lowest return (10) of winners over the last 4 years for horses who appeared at the previous year's Festival.
2019: 14
2018: 13
2017: 15

I haven't looked at the stats for the 2017-19 "non previous Festival participant winners" but it'll be interesting to see if the overall "Cheltenham Factor" figure for those years is above 64 per cent. Personally, I wouldn't bet against it.

You could end up expecting 18 or 19 of the 28 Festival races to be won by horses who either competed at the previous year's Festival or had strong track form.

And it would be likely that the remaining 8 or 9 races that boasted winners with no course form would include a significant number of novice events.

This year's Festival winners with no Cheltenham previous were:

Shishkin -won 17k novice hurdle at Huntingdon by 11 lengths.
Honeysuckle - won 97k 2m hurdle Leopardstown in February.
Ravenhill - 2nd in 108khandicap chase at Listowel last September.
Aramax - won 9k 2m novice hurdle at Naas in February
Ferny Hollow - won 5k bumper at Fairyhouse in February
Milan Native - 2nd in 7k 2m 4f chase at Gowran Park in February
Burning Victory - - won 17k G3 4-yr-old hurdle at Fairyhouse in February
Saint Roi - won 6k maiden hurdle at Tramore in January
Monkfish - won 7k novice hurdle at Thurles in January
Chosen Mate - won 7k chase at Gowran Park in January

The 7 winners with strong previous course form were:

Put The Kettle On - won 20k 2mile G2 chase at Cheltenham last November
The Conditional - won 37k 3m 1f handicap chase at Cheltenham last October.
Imperial Aura - 2nd twice in 2m 4f and 3m 1f Cheltenham races worth 17k and 16k leading up to the Festival.
Dame De Compagne - 2 previous C and D victories at Cheltenham , the latest in December last year.
Easyland - won over C and D last December
Samcro - won the Ballymore in 2018
Simply The Betts - won 17k novice handicap over C and D in January.
*It Came To Pass - fell 3 out in the 2016 Foxhunters when still in with a chance


I've always wanted horses who act on the track on my side at the Festival but not sure I realised it's such a big advantage.

[Lobos]

Just started having a look at the 18 Cheltenham Festival winners this year who did not appear at last year's Festival.

Even among these horses 39 per cent of them (7 of the 18) have strong past form at Cheltenham. Six of them were previous course winners and the other was 2nd twice at the track last season, albeit on the new course rather than the old course on which he won at the Festival.

Of the 11 horses who won at the Festival on their track debut this year two facts are significant:

10 of them were trained in Ireland.
6 of them won novice events and were - with the exception of Ravenhill - at an early stage in their career.

The bottom line is that 17 of the 28 festival winners this year (that's almost 61 per cent) either ran at the 2019 Festival or had strong track form.

And let's remember that the 2020 festival produced the lowest return (10) of winners over the last 4 years for horses who appeared at the previous year's Festival.
2019: 14
2018: 13
2017: 15

I haven't looked at the stats for the 2017-19 "non previous Festival participant winners" but it'll be interesting to see if the overall "Cheltenham Factor" figure for those years is above 61 per cent. Personally, I wouldn't bet against it.

You could end up expecting 18 or 19 of the 28 Festival races to be won by horses who either competed at the previous year's Festival or had strong track form.

And it would be likely that the remaining 8 or 9 races that boasted winners with no course form would include a significant number of novice events.

This year's Festival winners with no Cheltenham previous were:

Shishkin -won 17k novice hurdle at Huntingdon by 11 lengths.
Honeysuckle - won 97k 2m hurdle Leopardstown in February.
Ravenhill - 2nd in 108khandicap chase at Listowel last September.
Aramax - won 9k 2m novice hurdle at Naas in February
Ferny Hollow - won 5k bumper at Fairyhouse in February
Milan Native - 2nd in 7k 2m 4f chase at Gowran Park in February
Burning Victory - - won 17k G3 4-yr-old hurdle at Fairyhouse in February
Saint Roi - won 6k maiden hurdle at Tramore in January
Monkfish - won 7k novice hurdle at Thurles in January
It Came To Pass - won 5k hunter chase at Cork last November
Chosen Mate - won 7k chase at Gowran Park in January

The 7 winners with strong previous course form were:

Put The Kettle On - won 20k 2mile G2 chase at Cheltenham last November
The Conditional - won 37k 3m 1f handicap chase at Cheltenham last October.
Imperial Aura - 2nd twice in 2m 4f and 3m 1f Cheltenham races worth 17k and 16k leading up to the Festival.
Dame De Compagne - 2 previous C and D victories at Cheltenham , the latest in December last year.
Easyland - won over C and D last December
Samcro - won the Ballymore in 2018
Simply The Betts - won 17k novice handicap over C and D in January.

I've always wanted horses who act on the track on my side at the Festival but not sure I realised it's such a big advantage.

Brilliant work but I must correct you on one....the Foxhunter winner was running a big race in the same race in 2016 when he fell.

[EnvoyAllen]

Thanks guys, this is all brilliant work. Well appreciated by all, i would hope.

Just as an aside though, and I did mention it yesterday, sometimes stats (with which bookmakers employ clever people to study all of the information we have here, and in finite detail) can be just as important as just looking at a price instinctively and saying ‘yep,that’s a great price even months ahead, I don’t need to study the statistics to stake my money on that horse,and feel I’m getting incredible value’).

I’d like to digress a touch, if I may.

And I’d just like to digress away from horse racing, to use sports betting examples. Please bare with me......


Lewis Hamilton. Odds to win the drivers championship this year - 8/13 best price.....4/7 generally.

Lewis Hamilton. Odds to win BBC Sports Personality Of the Year before the first race of the season - 10/1.

Now, if you were to do the slightest piece of homework, you’d work out that if Lewis, the best driver of his generation,in the best car in the history of the sport (fact), you’d realise that were he to win the driver’s championship, there’s an exceptionally good chance he’d overtake a record (Michael Schumacher’s race wins) that nobody a decade ago would ever believe could be matched, let alone beaten. Ever.

So the 8/13 is irrelevant when the 10/1 you could have for, in effect, the same thing happening. If Lewis beats Scumacher’s record, by winning the drivers title, he’ll be long odds on to win Sports Personality.

I never looked at any historic statistics over 20 years to work out a 10/1 shot (now 3/1 and will shorten further...) to take the 10/1 when the 8/13 is in effect a ‘related contingency’ to the price 13 times greater.

Likewise a couple of years ago, Johanna Konta.

14/1 to win the ladies single championships at Wimbledon.

Or......25/1 to win Sports Personality of the Year.

Winning the 14/1 shot and becoming the first (though it never happened) ladies winner since Virginia Wade in 1977 is the 100% related contingency link (which bookmakers don’t allow) to the 25/1 freely on offer.

She wins Wimbledon at 14/1?

Automatically means she wins sports personality at nearly double the price.


What has this got to do with anything, or horse racing, I hear you all sigh and mutter??

Everything and nothing, of course. But what it does prove, to a reasonably effective degree, is that sometimes statistics, and historic reams of them, can point you in the same direction as just a 2 mins of homework, and a little bit of ‘betting smart’ to get a price 2,3,5 or 10 times greater than the event you want to stake on.

Each and everyone of us is searching for more than one thing. And it’s not just winners. Most certainly not for all of us.

It’s value. Each way value, on double figure prices.

And whilst i personally think the work done here by some of these guys is OUTSTANDING and appreciated by all, sometimes, just sometimes, you can look at a market very quickly and work out the value/chance of making money from that ‘value’ just by instinct. And just a touch of thinking outside the loop.

I know Lewis Hamilton wouldn’t make Envoi Allen run any quicker, but at 10/1 to win sports personality compared to the 8/13 to essentially win the same thing (in a year he’s going to break all Formula 1 records, one of which he broke yesterday), he was always incredible value in a market that’s hardly ever looked at and analysed.

Instinct I believe can be just as powerful as research.

[Quevega]

Be a bit annoying if we go into lockdown again though.

And Joe Wicks wins SPOTY