Mares Chase 2021

[ComplyOrDie]

I’d back Elimay with a 10lbs penalty vs Shattered Love.

SL gets thoroughly battered every time she steps into semi decent company. Since 2019 onwards she’s lost by an aggregate of 20L and only seems to win nothing races at Clonmel (the horse she beat this season Coko Beach just beat 75L).

You basically have to go back 3 years to try and piece together a form case. She’s not a terrible bet, but it’s a damn sight closer to terrible than good IMO

She's run in a Gold Cup, a Ryanair, and also faced off against Al Boum Photo & Min on one other occasion away from the festival too. That's not semi decent company, that's the top!

She was PU over 3m 5f, she'd never gone that far before and that's forgivable, IMO.

Her run in the G2 at Gowran in October '19' was a little disappointing, but by no means horrendous, and then again at the same track in Feb '19' although she was only beat 2 lengths by a 160 rated chaser.

Her form this season looks worse than it is, IMO. Her 3rd to The Storyteller, although well behind, has been advertised incredibly well by the winner that day, as he went on to win the G1 at Down Royal in October, before placing in a G1 over hurdles and finishing 2nd in the Irish Gold Cup at the weekend. He was also race fit, she was coming off a fairly lengthy break. She then dotted up at Clonmel, easy to say she should have, but on ratings she was only 1lb better off, and couldn't have won any easier. Finally her run LTO, is, IMO, completely forgivable, she hadn't been over a hurdle in 3 years, and she's certainly not built like a hurdler either. I'm not sure why she ran that day, maybe just to keep her ticking over, but it's not even worthy of consideration, IMHO.

I'd like to know, of the horses in the market, with the exception of BDD, which mare could get any closer in the races she has run in, than Shattered Love did?

[Lobos]

Yes COD. Another on the Love bus !

[Middle_Of_March]

Oh Willie please send the Good thing here! How do I contact him to send him this thread?

When there’s less than 6 weeks to the race and the debate is who will be the fav out of Shattered Love or Elimay (the latter would have to give Benie weight as well) it just highlights how poor this race is.

She could be 90% fit and she would win this Willie. Please run her. Thank you.

[ComplyOrDie]

Oh Willie please send the Good thing here! How do I contact him to send him this thread?

When there’s less than 6 weeks to the race and the debate is who will be the fav out of Shattered Love or Elimay (the latter would have to give Benie weight as well) it just highlights how poor this race is.

She could be 90% fit and she would win this Willie. Please run her. Thank you.

I must have misread I didn't realise the debate was over who should be favourite, just that Shattered Love is plenty overpriced, given what is ahead of her in the market, IMO.

Would absolutely love BDD to turn up here though!

[charlie]

She's run in a Gold Cup, a Ryanair, and also faced off against Al Boum Photo & Min on one other occasion away from the festival too. That's not semi decent company, that's the top!

She was PU over 3m 5f, she'd never gone that far before and that's forgivable, IMO.

Her run in the G2 at Gowran in October '19' was a little disappointing, but by no means horrendous, and then again at the same track in Feb '19' although she was only beat 2 lengths by a 160 rated chaser.

Her form this season looks worse than it is, IMO. Her 3rd to The Storyteller, although well behind, has been advertised incredibly well by the winner that day, as he went on to win the G1 at Down Royal in October, before placing in a G1 over hurdles and finishing 2nd in the Irish Gold Cup at the weekend. He was also race fit, she was coming off a fairly lengthy break. She then dotted up at Clonmel, easy to say she should have, but on ratings she was only 1lb better off, and couldn't have won any easier. Finally her run LTO, is, IMO, completely forgivable, she hadn't been over a hurdle in 3 years, and she's certainly not built like a hurdler either. I'm not sure why she ran that day, maybe just to keep her ticking over, but it's not even worthy of consideration, IMHO.

I'd like to know, of the horses in the market, with the exception of BDD, which mare could get any closer in the races she has run in, than Shattered Love did?

First point a fair one COD. *mostly battered in top company.

I didn't use PU over 3m5f as a stick to beat her with - that would be unfair

I accept the runs at Gowran in 2019 come with legitimate excuses - first time up being one - and yes, she was beaten 2L by a 160 rated chaser, but that was in receipt of nearly a stone which is important not to leave out

This season she was 20L behind the Storyteller that day who won as he liked, but I think it's convenient to use a form line through the race fit Storyteller who has impressed since, and ignore the second that day in Tout Est Permis who beat SL 13L off exactly the same 216 day break - he has hardly set the world alight since and what she left in behind isn't worth wasting time on.

SL Clonmel run was very good and she beat Western Victory 10L giving away 1lbs. Colreevy beat Western Victory 22L hard held giving away 7lbs carry over a stone more than SL, so even with a large number of race variables in play I think Colreevy in that race would have battered that field far more impressively, and we're not sure she's even in the top 2 at Willies!

Re your last question (and setting aside BDD ) the only horses I can be extremely confident on are Colreevy, Elimay and PTKO. I'd have all three ahead of Shattered Love and have them beating the mares she beat LTO more impressively (I appreciate this really is superb incite - finding the 2nd, 3rd and 4th market fav in an ante post conversation haha )

People will counter with Colreevy might skip Cheltenham and go Fairyhouse, PTKO might go QMCC, and we might not see BDD at all - all fair 'if's' 'buts' and 'maybes', but that leaves Elimay. Some might say that's one horse, who still has to get there, and 12/1 EW could look massive in that eventuality. I see where people are coming from, but, I think WPM will send at least 2 of his 3, and HDB can't fancy a tilt at the QMCC having seen CPS this weekend. In my mind that leaves 3 to 4 horses ahead of SL, and that's before you factor in younger horses that might have more improvement in them like DDC & Annie Mc. I cannot say with any confidence COD that horses with those profiles would get closer in the races SL has run in this season, but I can confidently say they are mares far more likely to be on an upward curve with improvement in them.

[Middle_Of_March]

I must have misread I didn't realise the debate was over who should be favourite, just that Shattered Love is plenty overpriced, given what is ahead of her in the market, IMO.

Would absolutely love BDD to turn up here though!

Lobos said f she wins Saturday she should be fav. That was where I was loosely aiming it at.

I still can’t believe she’s 5/2 NRNB! It’s staggering

[ComplyOrDie]

I didn't use PU over 3m5f as a stick to beat her with - that would be unfair

I know you didn't but thought I'd use the full form available, as she wasn't great that day, but with the obvious reason.

I accept the runs at Gowran in 2019 come with legitimate excuses - first time up being one - and yes, she was beaten 2L by a 160 rated chaser, but that was in receipt of nearly a stone which is important not to leave out

Valid point, I thought she was only getting the mares allowance that day, TBH!

This season she was 20L behind the Storyteller that day who won as he liked, but I think it's convenient to use a form line through the race fit Storyteller who has impressed since, and ignore the second that day in Tout Est Permis who beat SL 13L off exactly the same 216 day break - he has hardly set the world alight since and what she left in behind isn't worth wasting time on.

Can partly agree, the form in behind, with the exception of SL, who won next time out, has been poor from that race, though after a long break is sometimes not a true reflection for any one horse as they can come on a fair bit from that run or completely drop out of form, she was the former, thankfully.

SL Clonmel run was very good and she beat Western Victory 10L giving away 1lbs. Colreevy beat Western Victory 22L hard held giving away 7lbs carry over a stone more than SL, so even with a large number of race variables in play I think Colreevy in that race would have battered that field far more impressively, and we're not sure she's even in the top 2 at Willies!

The problem with form is it shouldn't be taken too literally (I'm massively guilty of this at times), they were two completely different races and is like me saying Allaho finished 34 lengths behind Min earlier in the season and Elimay was 3 lengths behind Allaho, but Shattered Love only finished 24 lengths behind Min in the Ryanair.

Re your last question (and setting aside BDD ) the only horses I can be extremely confident on are Colreevy, Elimay and PTKO. I'd have all three ahead of Shattered Love and have them beating the mares she beat LTO more impressively (I appreciate this really is superb incite - finding the 2nd, 3rd and 4th market fav in an ante post conversation haha )

People will counter with Colreevy might skip Cheltenham and go Fairyhouse, PTKO might go QMCC, and we might not see BDD at all - all fair 'if's' 'buts' and 'maybes', but that leaves Elimay. Some might say that's one horse, who still has to get there, and 12/1 EW could look massive in that eventuality. I see where people are coming from, but, I think WPM will send at least 2 of his 3, and HDB can't fancy a tilt at the QMCC having seen CPS this weekend. In my mind that leaves 3 to 4 horses ahead of SL, and that's before you factor in younger horses that might have more improvement in them like DDC & Annie Mc. I cannot say with any confidence COD that horses with those profiles would get closer in the races SL has run in this season, but I can confidently say they are mares far more likely to be on an upward curve with improvement in them.

TBH I passed straight over PTKO, as I just thought QMCC but in reality there is a chance she comes here, so yeah she would be one. I can't have Elimay until she's done it again. Her run against Allaho obviously looks great on paper, but Allaho himself has been massively out of form anyway. Colreevy likely won't come here, will she? And if she does it probably means BDD isn't going to turn up as well, so that would be rubbish anyway However, I would have Colreevy over Elimay. Annie Mc doesn't like Cheltenham, does she? She's been battered twice there. There is only one C&D winner over fences in that market, although in fairness barely any have given it a go, but it's nice to have it in the book, and that is SL.

With the exception of BDD & possibly PTKO, although she's not run a serious race at this trip, and when she was in a half decent one she got touched off, Shattered Love for me is the value left in the market.

[Quevega]

Is this an argument or discussion ?
Cos Shattered Love is really not worth it.

And did you know that Shattered Love has never been beaten by another Mare

All hail Lobos

[charlie]

ComplyOrDie Good counter COD, very fair points - I like debating horses with you, always sensible and well considered points! (#triumphflashbacks)

[Al Boum Photo]

And I keep on saying.....she's NEVER been beaten by a mare in a chase. She too will escape a penalty and get weight from the likes of Elimay and Colreevy despite having won multiple graded races and being the only Mare to have won the Marsh chase at the Fez.

All of Annie Mc, Elimay, Colreevy and BDD have never been beaten by mares over fences either, so possibly not the strongest argument

[Quevega]

All of Annie Mc, Elimay, Colreevy and BDD have never been beaten by mares over fences either, so possibly not the strongest argument

In your face Lobos
Wish I'd come up with that (so does charlie & COD)

Excellent work Al Boum.

[Lobos]

In your face Lobos
Wish I'd come up with that (so does charlie & COD)

Excellent work Al Boum.

Took a while but we'll done Boum. You other 3 should be ashamed of yourselves !

[Nortons who]

All of Annie Mc, Elimay, Colreevy and BDD have never been beaten by mares over fences either, so possibly not the strongest argument

Yes but by the end of Friday afternoon on 19th March, only Shattered Love will remain that way.

Well I'm sure that's the reply Lobos was thinking of but he's too polite to say

[charlie]

In your face Lobos
Wish I'd come up with that (so does charlie & COD)

Excellent work Al Boum.

Hahaha true. Cherry on the cake stuff Al Boum

[Kevloaf]

All of Annie Mc, Elimay, Colreevy and BDD have never been beaten by mares over fences either, so possibly not the strongest argument

Absolute the correct 'tone' to deliver the message with too.




What an enjoyable read about a horse I don't care about.