Mares Chase 2021

[Quevega]

Hi first post ever the way Mullins has campaigned some of his runners at Cheltenham it’s struck me he thinks a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Moving Bernie to the stayers would in my opinion mean that he thinks the others are his best chance of winning those races. As I think he would like to win all 3 races but not at the expense of losing one of the others. Colveery,Elimay and concertisa winning, I don’t think increases Benies chances of winning the stayers which he has entered in for the last 3 years but has run her in the mares race each time. If Benie is his best mare and best chance I think he will run her in the race he thinks she has the best chance of winning. I don,t think he would sacrifice benie with the hardest options on her last possible Cheltenham unless he off course thinks she has a really could chance of winning but he tends to do the same things over and over. I’m probably wrong of course

Correct.
Lobos is obsessed with Benie running in the stayers.

Welcome BTW

[isitmarchyet]

Might have already been mentioned but just realised 365 have suspended cash out on Dame De Compagnie for this race.

[Lobos]

Owners favouring missing Cheltenham with Colreevy and going for valuable Mares chase at Limerick on March 14th. Mullins says he will need to speak to them after today's performance and maybe review plans as she could also go Mares Chase. Elimay will run at end of Feb in Opera chase at Naas before Cheltenham.

[Lobos]

The above comments on Colreevy mean Elimay should definitely be shorter than her IMO!


Colreevy could go to Limerick.
Benie might stay over hurdles (especially as Mullins might have this locked down)
Hendo played down Dame De Compagnie (and JP owns too so no need to run?)
Put The Kettle On is aimed at the QMCC
Honeysuckle still quoted, definitely not coming here?
Elfile is next at 12/1, not been seen yet.

So what's left....
Shattered Love at 16/1 and Annie Mc at 16/1?
20/1 bar.....



Elimay is a proper bet here isn't she?! I can't see her out of the frame, and if BDD runs I still think it's a rock solid bet...

Certainly looks that way. Agree re JP owning Elimay that DDC unlikely to turn up here now. Shattered Love is still value I'd say if you haven't got her on board yet ?She's never been beaten by another Mare in a chase.

[Quevega]

Owners favouring missing Cheltenham with Colreevy and going for valuable Mares chase at Limerick on March 14th. Mullins says he will need to speak to them after today's performance and maybe review plans as she could also go Mares Chase. Elimay will run at end of Feb in Opera chase at Naas before Cheltenham.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/allaho-cut-for-ryanair-glory/188705

Bit more on the quotes for these.
In case you don't just want Secretary Lobos's shorthand version.

The last paragraph IMO hints that she may be deemed competitive enough against the boys, and they've already clocked she's going to be penalised for the Mares chase, and will be up against more experienced horses in that.

[ComplyOrDie]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/allaho-cut-for-ryanair-glory/188705

Bit more on the quotes for these.
In case you don't just want Secretary Lobos's shorthand version.

The last paragraph IMO hints that she may be deemed competitive enough against the boys, and they've already clocked she's going to be penalised for the Mares chase, and will be up against more experienced horses in that.

[Lobos]

Did we find out if Elimay will be penalised in the Mares Chase??

[ToniC]

Yeah, one I like the look of too. Favourite for the Galmoy tomorrow

Not knocking him specifically as a bet, but the record of Willies horses coming to the stayers from the galmoy is shite

[ComplyOrDie]

Not knocking him specifically as a bet, but the record of Willies horses coming to the stayers from the galmoy is shite

Her*

Mourad won the Galmoy, came 3rd in a World Hurdle behind Big Bucks, not shite.
Zaidpour won the Galmoy in 2012 then strangely ran in the Champion Hurdle, so can forgive this one, although it was a shite decision by the trainer
Shaneshill won the Galmoy and PU in the Stayers - agree, shite, although the exact same connections had the winner that year anyway in Nichols Canyon
Benie Des Dieux won the Galmoy last season and probably would have won the Stayers too given how it panned out, but went down the typical Mares Hurdle route and got dicked

Overall, his winners of the race are not no hopers or shite, Great White Shark is an E/W play, probably no more, and technically Willie has a 50% place rate with the two winners of the race who have gone on to win the Galmoy then onto the Stayers, albeit a pathetically small sample size (which has to be taken into account for both sides of the argument).

Great White Shark has to win the Galmoy first anyway, if she doesn't do that she's no hope in the Stayers.

[Topofthegame2021]

RE: the comments about Elimay and JP not having two.

I agree Elimay looks the bet of the lot. I was impressed today.

I would say - where does DDC run then? Has to be here IMO. The yard have said 2 1/2miles is the best suited trip. Elimay is an easier nut to crack than Envoi Allen. The Marsh would be much tougher (even just to place).

Really hoping my beloved Aston Villa beat Burnley tonight so I have a couple of decent roll ups on Elimay otherwise I have nothing on her.

[Lobos]

Did we find out if Elimay will be penalised in the Mares Chase??

I've answered my own question She won a G2 chase last year so she will also carry a penalty. For me that makes Shattered Love even more appealing. She's currently rated 5lbs higher than Elimay so that'll be 10lbs if you add Elimays penalty. That will no doubt close a little after today's good run but Shattered Love on that basis is still well in.

[Lobos]

RE: the comments about Elimay and JP not having two.

I agree Elimay looks the bet of the lot. I was impressed today.

I would say - where does DDC run then? Has to be here IMO. The yard have said 2 1/2miles is the best suited trip. Elimay is an easier nut to crack than Envoi Allen. The Marsh would be much tougher (even just to place).

Really hoping my beloved Aston Villa beat Burnley tonight so I have a couple of decent roll ups on Elimay otherwise I have nothing on her.

Think she'll end up in the Mares Hurdle now.

[Topofthegame2021]

Think she'll end up in the Mares Hurdle now.

Didn’t even consider reverting to hurdles. God... that makes me feel sick

[ToniC]

Her*

Mourad won the Galmoy, came 3rd in a World Hurdle behind Big Bucks, not shite.
Zaidpour won the Galmoy in 2012 then strangely ran in the Champion Hurdle, so can forgive this one, although it was a shite decision by the trainer
Shaneshill won the Galmoy and PU in the Stayers - agree, shite, although the exact same connections had the winner that year anyway in Nichols Canyon
Benie Des Dieux won the Galmoy last season and probably would have won the Stayers too given how it panned out, but went down the typical Mares Hurdle route and got dicked

Overall, his winners of the race are not no hopers or shite, Great White Shark is an E/W play, probably no more, and technically Willie has a 50% place rate with the two winners of the race who have gone on to win the Galmoy then onto the Stayers, albeit a pathetically small sample size (which has to be taken into account for both sides of the argument).

Great White Shark has to win the Galmoy first anyway, if she doesn't do that she's no hope in the Stayers.

My point wasn’t just regarding winners of the galmoy, I was more pointing out that as a trial race it’s not great. 10 he’s run in the galmoy that have subsequently ran in the stayers, the best any of them achieving being mourad coming 3rd as you pointed out.

[Lobos]

Didn’t even consider reverting to hurdles. God... that makes me feel sick

She and Elimay are JP's only entries in the Mares Hurdle. Elimay is clearly coming here so.......