Mares Chase 2021

[The King Pimm]

[QUOTE=Middle_Of_March;n271422]

Daughter in law of JP McManus who died recently. He cancelled his planned runners upon hearing the news of her death. [/QUOTE

cheers mate, I missed that news. Yet more sad news, it’s been a bleak few weeks for the horse racing community

[The King Pimm]

Annie Mc
Dame De Compagnie
Colreevy
Salsaretta
Benie
Shattered Love
Magic Of Light
Robin De Carlow

Not sure anyone can make much of a case for anything asides from these now as the likeliest runners. Hard to see a double figure field i’d agree.

Oh please Willie if you’re reading this send the good thing here. Benie would destroy this lot on the snaff. It would be the easiest festival win of your life Willie.

Archie, any updates on Robin De Carlow?? I think the last I heard she would be a big doubt for this race and Cheltenham. I’m sure I read Magic of Lights target is the Grand National so not sure if she will participate?

[Kevloaf]

Is that because the funeral of Emma is delayed until next week possibly?

Possibly.... taking away the reasoning, that can't be a positive for the horses chances.


A novice, never jumped a fence in public, getting well supported for an open Mares Chase at Cheltenham is not sensible.


Especially without mighty Barry.... who is going to ride this beast?

Not even knowing the jockey you're going to have and getting too committed to this mare is just crazy?

She's being radically over-egged in my ever so humble opinion. She's a handicap winner at the festival...


Before anyone starts, I perfectly understand how the handicap could be better than this race, and that she's a festival winner so deserves respect (and I've backed her) but I can't help feeling she's getting far too much air-time!

[Outlaw]

Possibly.... taking away the reasoning, that can't be a positive for the horses chances.


A novice, never jumped a fence in public, getting well supported for an open Mares Chase at Cheltenham is not sensible.


Especially without mighty Barry.... who is going to ride this beast?

Not even knowing the jockey you're going to have and getting too committed to this mare is just crazy?

She's being radically over-egged in my ever so humble opinion. She's a handicap winner at the festival...


Before anyone starts, I perfectly understand how the handicap could be better than this race, and that she's a festival winner so deserves respect (and I've backed her) but I can't help feeling she's getting far too much air-time!

The irony of the bold Merely was trying to state a reason as to why she might not of been declared. Obvs in an ideal world she would have been out and plenty are attracted to her price rather than saying she is some sort of machine. That's the vibe most posters on here seem to give off anyway

[Kevloaf]

The irony of the bold Merely was trying to state a reason as to why she might not of been declared. Obvs in an ideal world she would have been out and plenty are attracted to her price rather than saying she is some sort of machine. That's the vibe most posters on here seem to give off anyway

Haha I just didn't want to have to get a response telling me what her chances are, I know what her chances are.... I know that saying she only won a handicap isn't a stick to beat her with.... it's just worth considering, as you'd think she'd debuted like Charli Parcs, but we haven't seen her!


....and I'm not sure what you've picked up on..... the reason she may not have been declared, whilst valid on a personal level, is not a positive in any way, shape or form for her winning a race.

No way I'd back her today....I already have, but I wouldn't if I hadn't..... not today, given her not taking up the entry.

Her price is just okay, it's not great. I feel the vibe is too strong, as a backer

[taylorch1990]

Annie Mc
Dame De Compagnie
Colreevy
Salsaretta
Benie
Shattered Love
Magic Of Light
Robin De Carlow

Not sure anyone can make much of a case for anything asides from these now as the likeliest runners. Hard to see a double figure field i’d agree.

Oh please Willie if you’re reading this send the good thing here. Benie would destroy this lot on the snaff. It would be the easiest festival win of your life Willie.

I agree without Benie its wide open. I have a few novices on my list that could run here at big prices. I haven't backed any of them yet as I think the race hinges on Benie.

The 2 that interest me the most are Yukon Lil and Scarlett and Dove. They actually ran in the same beginners chase finishing 1st and 2nd. Yukon lil has since disappointed a bit over Xmas while Scarlett and Dove won and looked good. There best priced 40-1 and 50-1 and if I heard Benie wasn't coming here I'd back both (hopefully before there prices are cut).

[Outlaw]

Haha I just didn't want to have to get a response telling me what her chances are, I know what her chances are.... I know that saying she only won a handicap isn't a stick to beat her with.... it's just worth considering, as you'd think she'd debuted like Charli Parcs, but we haven't seen her!


....and I'm not sure what you've picked up on..... the reason she may not have been declared, whilst valid on a personal level, is not a positive in any way, shape or form for her winning a race.

No way I'd back her today....I already have, but I wouldn't if I hadn't..... not today, given her not taking up the entry.

Her price is just okay, it's not great. I feel the vibe is too strong, as a backer

Not saying it was a positive just a possibility of why, folk can’t get to the track at the min anyway so without sounding disrespectful, grounding all his runners is essentially pointless.

She had an entry plenty got 33s, it’s potentially weak bar Bennie can’t fault anyone who had a poke.

[Kevloaf]

Not saying it was a positive just a possibility of why, folk can’t get to the track at the min anyway so without sounding disrespectful, grounding all his runners is essentially pointless.

She had an entry plenty got 33s, it’s potentially weak bar Bennie can’t fault anyone who had a poke.

Yeah, all I said was it isn't a positive - I'm not saying it was a negative, I agree it's essentially pointless (but fair play, can do what he wants)....but if I was a backer (and I am) I wouldn't back her now...

I'm not sure where the disagreement is

[Middle_Of_March]

Spent some time going through the race tonight and here’s where I’m at with it..

My love for Benie Des Dieux (5/2 NRNB and 5/1 without) is relatively well known by now I’d have thought. Followed her from the year before she beat apples Jade in her first Mares Hurdle and even though she was 16s for the race that year and done me a turn, I’ve definitely given more than that back to the bookies on her since then on her two recent runs in the race. That fall of hers, when I stood at the last hurdle and she was my biggest bet of the meeting, was probably my most crushing moment on a racecourse ever. Gutted was an understatement. To then get beat, in my opinion through bad tactical riding from the Mullins jocks, against honeysuckle was another bitter pill to swallow. HOWEVER, I still think she’s the best mare in a long long time on sheer class alone. That win in France - albeit over 3m - in their champion hurdle was absolutely awesome. For me, on her day, she’s good enough to win a Stayers Hurdle. Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean I automatically believe she would win the Mares Chase against a good group of Mares. But those good group of mares don’t exist. Her biggest threat (more on her in a moment) won’t run. If Benie went here, nothing in my view is capable of getting close to her if she got round (and connections have always said she’s arguably a better chaser than hurdler). A lot of people will be reading this and say, well she’s not going to run so you’re wasting all of our time. But what if she did? If she ran, you can’t possibly tell me she wouldn’t be a 1/2 fav against these? So NRNB makes her excellent value at 5/2. I personally believe she will run. Here’s why in four quick points:
1) Mullins has Concertista for the Hurdle
2) Mullins notoriously goes for the easiest race to win
3) Rich Ricci once said the Mares Chase, if it was ever invented, would be the perfect race for Benie to run in.
4) I think the yard will be keen to win the inaugural running of the race. And there’s no better candidate for that in the Mullins yard than Benie Des Dieux.

Looking through the market, it really doesn’t look like being a race with much depth at all to it.

Put The Kettle On (10/1) is clearly a very very unlikely runner. We know connections are going for the Champion Chase with her. That’s the right call as, if anything happens to CPS, she would be bang there. They just have to aim at the CC when they have the Arkle winner.

Colreevy (6/1) - Would be carrying a penalty if she were to run. The idea that she’d be giving Benie 5lbs is quite funny and, even if running off levels, I’d be confident that Benie would beat her anyway. That said, she’s still a Grade 1 winner this season (albeit in a race that fell apart a bit) so deserves respect. A good yardstick but she’s certainly vulnerable.

Honeysuckle (10/1) - Staying over hurdles. Won’t be running. Irrelevant to this market as there’s literally zero chance of her suddenly turning up over fences.

Elfile (12/1) - May end up running here but you have to imagine she’s a doubt for the race having not turned up this season and would be a novice anyway. I like her but time is getting on for this. She was also comfortably behind Benie in the Hurdle race last year fwiw.

Elimay (14/1) - Was miles behind Benie in the Mares Hurdle that Benie fell in. However, she looks a much better horse to me over fences and at least she’s a likely runner.

Shattered Love (16/1) - Whilst it’s pretty clear her best days have been, she’s quite solid for what will be a weak race. Not a certainty to run as they may go the handicap route but she deserves respect in Mares company in a chase with that JLT win back in the day over what will be course and distance.

Annie Mc (16/1) - Again, it’s probably more testament to the lack of depth here in the race that we are considering Annie Mc, beaten comfortably in the Caspian Cavier this season. However, in Mares company over fences, she’s actually rock solid and, incredibly even, unbeaten. She won a listed race last time at Doncaster, ran all the way to the line over the 2m 4f and is being aimed at the race. Whilst I give her next to nil chance of beating Benie (or even PTKO in the unlikely circumstance she turned up), I’d give her a fair chance of running into the places. And if Benie didn’t run like a lot of people think, she’d certainly shorten as those above her in the market are gradually whittled down into a majority of non runners. I expect a small field for that reason and reckon, at the prices, she’s the each way value to run into the remaining places at 16/1 - with Bet365 so cashout as well on the off chance Benie AND PTKO were to run.

Dame De Compagnie (25/1) - Shown some class over hurdles to win the coral cup last year and has been said to have schooled superbly and will be out soon. However, she’s a handicap winner only and would be a novice for this. Not a bad price but one that I can happily swerve with her being a possible to run elsewhere in a handicap, in a novice Chase or even remain over hurdles.


After all this, I’ve decided two things in my mind:
1) I’m placing a 10 point bet on Benie at 5/2 NRNB (partially 11/4 with a Paddy Power boost). I already have some 14s from the start of the season but that shouldn’t let me be swayed. I make 5/2 incredibly value - albeit it’s of course still not a definite runner but that’s why it’s value. I’m tying some money up I know for a couple of months but if she did run, I’d have her 1/2 fav against that lot of likely runners. So 5/2 with the benefit of NRNB, for me, is one of the best bits of value on any race at the festival right now. Hence the 10 point bet.

2) There is some excellent each way value available here. There really is. It’s going to be such a small field and the majority at the top end of the market will probably not be running. Benie is obviously not a guarantee to run, PTKO is very unlikely, Honeysuckle won’t, Elfile not seen and would be a novice. Backed Elfile E/W at the start of the season any race so if she does run, that would be a useful suprise but I’m doubtful personally. I’m inclined to find something else though in this market. Have come down on Annie Mc as an each way bet at 16s with cashout with Bet365 and 3 places. Solid, will be aimed at the race and is a fair enough price for each way purposes. That could look decent enough when the candidates for this above her in the market drop out one by one and the expected small field happens.

[Johnoman66]

Spent some time going through the race tonight and here’s where I’m at with it..

My love for Benie Des Dieux (5/2 NRNB and 5/1 without) is relatively well known by now I’d have thought. Followed her from the year before she beat apples Jade in her first Mares Hurdle and even though she was 16s for the race that year and done me a turn, I’ve definitely given more than that back to the bookies on her since then on her two recent runs in the race. That fall of hers, when I stood at the last hurdle and she was my biggest bet of the meeting, was probably my most crushing moment on a racecourse ever. Gutted was an understatement. To then get beat, in my opinion through bad tactical riding from the Mullins jocks, against honeysuckle was another bitter pill to swallow. HOWEVER, I still think she’s the best mare in a long long time on sheer class alone. That win in France - albeit over 3m - in their champion hurdle was absolutely awesome. For me, on her day, she’s good enough to win a Stayers Hurdle. Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean I automatically believe she would win the Mares Chase against a good group of Mares. But those good group of mares don’t exist. Her biggest threat (more on her in a moment) won’t run. If Benie went here, nothing in my view is capable of getting close to her if she got round (and connections have always said she’s arguably a better chaser than hurdler). A lot of people will be reading this and say, well she’s not going to run so you’re wasting all of our time. But what if she did? If she ran, you can’t possibly tell me she wouldn’t be a 1/2 fav against these? So NRNB makes her excellent value at 5/2. I personally believe she will run. Here’s why in four quick points:
1) Mullins has Concertista for the Hurdle
2) Mullins notoriously goes for the easiest race to win
3) Rich Ricci once said the Mares Chase, if it was ever invented, would be the perfect race for Benie to run in.
4) I think the yard will be keen to win the inaugural running of the race. And there’s no better candidate for that in the Mullins yard than Benie Des Dieux.

Looking through the market, it really doesn’t look like being a race with much depth at all to it.

Put The Kettle On (10/1) is clearly a very very unlikely runner. We know connections are going for the Champion Chase with her. That’s the right call as, if anything happens to CPS, she would be bang there. They just have to aim at the CC when they have the Arkle winner.

Colreevy (6/1) - Would be carrying a penalty if she were to run. The idea that she’d be giving Benie 5lbs is quite funny and, even if running off levels, I’d be confident that Benie would beat her anyway. That said, she’s still a Grade 1 winner this season (albeit in a race that fell apart a bit) so deserves respect. A good yardstick but she’s certainly vulnerable.

Honeysuckle (10/1) - Staying over hurdles. Won’t be running. Irrelevant to this market as there’s literally zero chance of her suddenly turning up over fences.

Elfile (12/1) - May end up running here but you have to imagine she’s a doubt for the race having not turned up this season and would be a novice anyway. I like her but time is getting on for this. She was also comfortably behind Benie in the Hurdle race last year fwiw.

Elimay (14/1) - Was miles behind Benie in the Mares Hurdle that Benie fell in. However, she looks a much better horse to me over fences and at least she’s a likely runner.

Shattered Love (16/1) - Whilst it’s pretty clear her best days have been, she’s quite solid for what will be a weak race. Not a certainty to run as they may go the handicap route but she deserves respect in Mares company in a chase with that JLT win back in the day over what will be course and distance.

Annie Mc (16/1) - Again, it’s probably more testament to the lack of depth here in the race that we are considering Annie Mc, beaten comfortably in the Caspian Cavier this season. However, in Mares company over fences, she’s actually rock solid and, incredibly even, unbeaten. She won a listed race last time at Doncaster, ran all the way to the line over the 2m 4f and is being aimed at the race. Whilst I give her next to nil chance of beating Benie (or even PTKO in the unlikely circumstance she turned up), I’d give her a fair chance of running into the places. And if Benie didn’t run like a lot of people think, she’d certainly shorten as those above her in the market are gradually whittled down into a majority of non runners. I expect a small field for that reason and reckon, at the prices, she’s the each way value to run into the remaining places at 16/1 - with Bet365 so cashout as well on the off chance Benie AND PTKO were to run.

Dame De Compagnie (25/1) - Shown some class over hurdles to win the coral cup last year and has been said to have schooled superbly and will be out soon. However, she’s a handicap winner only and would be a novice for this. Not a bad price but one that I can happily swerve with her being a possible to run elsewhere in a handicap, in a novice Chase or even remain over hurdles.


After all this, I’ve decided two things in my mind:
1) I’m placing a 10 point bet on Benie at 5/2 NRNB (partially 11/4 with a Paddy Power boost). I already have some 14s from the start of the season but that shouldn’t let me be swayed. I make 5/2 incredibly value - albeit it’s of course still not a definite runner but that’s why it’s value. I’m tying some money up I know for a couple of months but if she did run, I’d have her 1/2 fav against that lot of likely runners. So 5/2 with the benefit of NRNB, for me, is one of the best bits of value on any race at the festival right now. Hence the 10 point bet.

2) There is some excellent each way value available here. There really is. It’s going to be such a small field and the majority at the top end of the market will probably not be running. Benie is obviously not a guarantee to run, PTKO is very unlikely, Honeysuckle won’t, Elfile not seen and would be a novice. Backed Elfile E/W at the start of the season any race so if she does run, that would be a useful suprise but I’m doubtful personally. I’m inclined to find something else though in this market. Have come down on Annie Mc as an each way bet at 16s with cashout with Bet365 and 3 places. Solid, will be aimed at the race and is a fair enough price for each way purposes. That could look decent enough when the candidates for this above her in the market drop out one by one and the expected small field happens.

Excellent summing up, agree with all of your points. 5/2 is still great odds with NRNB. Would just be great to be a fly on the wall to get Mullins/Ricci's take on 1. Current wellbeing and 2. Preferred choice of race. We will probably still be speculating on both for another couple of months. Probably wouldn't be ideal but don't think I would be the end of the world if she had to go here without a prep,im sure she would get plenty schooling at home and no better man than Willie to have one ready first time out. Touch wood this will be where she ends up.

[Scooby91]

There could be loads of runners here.

Magic of light
Sensulano
Happy diva
Chilli filli
Annie mc
Elimay
Emily moon
Augusta gold
Moyhenna
Shattered love
Colreevy
Casablanca mix
Mount ida
Scarlett and dove
Sacre coeur
Yukon lil
Zambella
Elusive belle
Oscar rose

Are all very likely


It's a late closing race, so there are loads with the chance to come into it. Start with and and is definitely not limited to

Benie des dieux
Elfile
Dame de compagnie

[Cooldaddy]

BDD turns up she wins, she doesn't, could be quite interesting.

[archie]

Archie, any updates on Robin De Carlow??

Last I heard (4 weeks ago), if everything went right she might be back on the track late February. That would make Cheltenham only a faint chance especially as Willie has plenty of other options.

[Middle_Of_March]

There could be loads of runners here.

Magic of light
Sensulano
Happy diva
Chilli filli
Annie mc
Elimay
Emily moon
Augusta gold
Moyhenna
Shattered love
Colreevy
Casablanca mix
Mount ida
Scarlett and dove
Sacre coeur
Yukon lil
Zambella
Elusive belle
Oscar rose

Are all very likely


It's a late closing race, so there are loads with the chance to come into it. Start with and and is definitely not limited to

Benie des dieux
Elfile
Dame de compagnie

That list really highlights how shite this race is doesn’t it. Both Benie and PTKO would absolutely trounce them.

[ComplyOrDie]

Last I heard (4 weeks ago), if everything went right she might be back on the track late February. That would make Cheltenham only a faint chance especially as Willie has plenty of other options.

Next season (for the festival) then, all things being well