Mares Chase 2021

[Altior]

Didn't pull the trigger earlier today but had enough fooling around and taken the 8/1 boosted on Hills for Benie.

[Kevloaf]

Surely has to be a serious amount money down to make that cut?

Doesn't have to have been?

The traders at PP could have seen a pattern, they could have taken a view themselves, they could have been given some information and taken a position on it, they could be playing a long-game and luring people in.

I'd be amazed if a Monday afternoon saw them take a serious sum of money in isolation.

The other bookies that cut would have seen a high volume of bets and they all reacted within an hour or two?

[Lobos]

Not been on here for a few days. Just catching up. Can't believe you lot (Kev excluded) have only just come to the conclusion that Benie might just run in this race. Why now??? Why not back in May when I put her up at 14/1 ???? Nothing has changed in that time.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Not been on here for a few days. Just catching up. Can't believe you lot (Kev excluded) have only just come to the conclusion that Benie might just run in this race. Why now??? Why not back in May when I put her up at 14/1 ???? Nothing has changed in that time.

Have you been helping Quevega move house?

[charlie]

Not been on here for a few days. Just catching up. Can't believe you lot (Kev excluded) have only just come to the conclusion that Benie might just run in this race. Why now??? Why not back in May when I put her up at 14/1 ???? Nothing has changed in that time.

Not many people on here are going to find 14/1 shots with targets up in air 10 months out from Cheltenham attractive as an ante post proposition.

How has nothing changed? Lots has changed.

Concertista has pissed up and looked pretty handy, which means she could potentially slot into the mares, and either related or unrelated, BDD has lengthened for the mares and shortened for the chase. All this happened mid Monday afternoon, suggesting its probably stable money, or someone somewhere knowing something we don't.

I'm pretty happy with 10's in December and riding that blue wave on the new information we have - I certainly don't feel like I've missed out on 14's in May

[Lobos]

Not many people on here are going to find 14/1 shots with targets up in air 10 months out from Cheltenham attractive as an ante post proposition.

How has nothing changed? Lots has changed.

Concertista has pissed up and looked pretty handy, which means she could potentially slot into the mares, and either related or unrelated, BDD has lengthened for the mares and shortened for the chase. All this happened mid Monday afternoon, suggesting its probably stable money, or someone somewhere knowing something we don't.

I'm pretty happy with 10's in December and riding that blue wave on the new information we have - I certainly don't feel like I've missed out on 14's in May

But you guys like cash out don't you. Was available at 14's with Paddy in May so no risk bet ?

[charlie]

But you guys like cash out don't you. Was available at 14's with Paddy in May so no risk bet ?

I can't use PP and B365 cut me off, so I have limited cash out options unfortunately!

[Istabraq]

I'm not sure how any bet can be risk free unless you're arbing regardless of circumstances and number of cash out options...

[ComplyOrDie]

Not been on here for a few days. Just catching up. Can't believe you lot (Kev excluded) have only just come to the conclusion that Benie might just run in this race. Why now??? Why not back in May when I put her up at 14/1 ???? Nothing has changed in that time.

A few reasons really:

1. As Charlie stated, and you completely ignored in your reply to him, a fair bit has changed, it's certainly not "nothing".

2. 14/1 is for Amateurs I got some 18/1, so what? Means nothing if she still doesn't turn up for the race. The market moves, Concertista running well, are both non-guarantees that BDD runs here.

3. You put up a lot of 'strong fancies', and push them a little too hard sometimes, that I usually just switch off from your ramblings, so much so that I didn't even realise you were the first to put her up I'm not saying I expect you to change or to stop putting your opinion across, but it's my honest answer as to why I probably didn't back her in May when you brought her up.

4. May is very early for a race that has only been implemented for the coming season, Honeysuckle was mentioned by someone on here too, for the race, don't suppose that was you as well? I was happy to use free bets or bonus winnings, but I'm yet to lay a single penny out from the festival bank on the race, with the exception of some multiples once the BDD move happened.

[Istabraq]

4. May is very early for a race that has only been implemented for the coming season, Honeysuckle was mentioned by someone on here too, for the race, don't suppose that was you as well? I was happy to use free bets or bonus winnings, but I'm yet to lay a single penny out from the festival bank on the race, with the exception of some multiples once the BDD move happened.

I think the argument I, and others, put up was that the race conditions were unknown and getting stuck into a horse for a race she was, at the time, unlikely to target and who could face multiple penalties for her G1 wins was foolish so far out.
Perversely we are now in December and the race conditions are still unknown and although archie, in particular, has provided some info around how weights and penalties are applied to G2s we are all still currently guessing exactly what the conditions will be...

[dannycraigpirates]

For me, it’s more of a case I can’t afford to place all my Cheltenham bets earlier in the year in one lump and have to stretch them out over the month’s leading up to the festival. BDD for this wasn’t as pressing as getting some other horses such as Colreevy into my book. I managed to get 1.5 points @ 10/1 and a few multiples @ 8/1. Would I have liked more? Sure. I’ll now just keep topping up on free bets doubled with shiskin or Epatante for the next couple of weeks to boost her price a bit

[Pendil]

I think the argument I, and others, put up was that the race conditions were unknown and getting stuck into a horse for a race she was, at the time, unlikely to target and who could face multiple penalties for her G1 wins was foolish so far out.
Perversely we are now in December and the race conditions are still unknown and although archie, in particular, has provided some info around how weights and penalties are applied to G2s we are all still currently guessing exactly what the conditions will be...

Just in relation to Benies weight or penalty for this. All of Benies graded wins were over hurdles and penalties dont cross over from hurdling to chasing. Her best from as a chaser were 2 listed wins and again wouldnt carry a penalty. IMO

[Geegees]

Havent had too much of a play in this market yet and subsequently not bee on here much but hoping to change that now that there is abit more positivity surrounding attending the races. I certainly think this being a new race is pushing prices up slightly and I guess thats linked to no one really committing to this race yet.
I think put the kettle on will go CC with this market looking fairly wide open at the moment. I have benie backed in a treble with envoi allen and eptante (post festival this year).
I did consider consertista but considering the impressions she has given so far this season then I agree with the general vibe at the moment that she will be MH and BDD here

[Istabraq]

Just in relation to Benies weight or penalty for this. All of Benies graded wins were over hurdles and penalties dont cross over from hurdling to chasing. Her best from as a chaser were 2 listed wins and again wouldnt carry a penalty. IMO

OK thanks Pendil, I wasn't aware of that, I just wish they'd release the actual conditions so we can stop guessing...

[archie]

Just in relation to Benies weight or penalty for this. All of Benies graded wins were over hurdles and penalties dont cross over from hurdling to chasing. Her best from as a chaser were 2 listed wins and again wouldnt carry a penalty. IMO

Penalties for the other mares' races were based on race class not grade. Listed races are Class 1 and, for the mares novice for instance, attract the same penalty as graded races. The point that no-one can be sure either way until the conditions are released is spot on. There may even be a date before which penalties don't apply.