Mares Chase 2021

[Lobos]

Without Benie, Honey and Kettle, we are left with Salsaretta, Elimay, Elfile, Happy Diva, Laurina and Shattered Love plus a few rags. Of those I'd say Shattered Love stands out on experience/form and at 25's she looks great value to me. If Laurina can get back to her best then she would be my 2nd choice at around 33/1. What's everyone else's thoughts?

[Vanilla]

The race should cut up and if she runs here, 20s now is worth a few shillings.

[Kevloaf]

The race should cut up and if she runs here, 20s now is worth a few shillings.

I think you could get 20/1 much closer to the time though, even NRNB....she's never going to be the sexy horse for it (for all that she will be popular on here)

I'd take my chances on her by say, Christmas, or maybe even NRNB at what I expect would be 16/1, than 20/1 right now.



I just can't see a scenario where she shortens drastically?

[jack1092]

Without Benie, Honey and Kettle, we are left with Salsaretta, Elimay, Elfile, Happy Diva, Laurina and Shattered Love plus a few rags. Of those I'd say Shattered Love stands out on experience/form and at 25's she looks great value to me. If Laurina can get back to her best then she would be my 2nd choice at around 33/1. What's everyone else's thoughts?

Like Elimay and Elfile from the list you mention. They'd be the two i'd be looking at from this far out, provided none of the first 3 you said run of course.

[Istabraq]

Just a reminder that this race is a G2, G1 horses will not target this race....

[nortonscoin200]

The problem with her as an ante post pick, is there is a really low chance she goes off short. She's a handicapper, that's established, and whilst really likeable, if she's fav for a Grade 2 Mares Chase at the festival, they've done it completely wrong.


She's the kind of horse that should be 20/1 on the day and we can all be clever and put her up..... but this early I feel it's inevitable that she's not going to be a good value ante post bet.


Almost as inevitable as us beating not606 again *doffs cap to you Sir*

I don't think it's particularly clever to put up Happy Diva - but it is very practical.

Provided she's fit I'd say this is bound to be her target but how many of the 7 horses listed above her i the market will turn up?

My guess is that Honeysuckle, PTKO and Benie will go elsewhere so that leaves Salsaretta, Elfile, Elimay and Dame De Compagnie as her main rivals - if they all target this race and get there in one piece.

Maybe she "should" be a 20-1 shot but there's no way she will start at half those odds. Her terrific Cheltenham form will ensure she goes off at maybe 8-1 or 9-1 at best - and that's assuming the above mentioned 4 likely rivals turn up.

Reckon the 20-1 could be around till after Christmas but once it becomes obvious Honeysuckle, Benie and/or PTKO are being aimed at other targets that price will surely vanish.

[Kevloaf]

I don't think it's particularly clever to put up Happy Diva - but it is very practical.

Provided she's fit I'd say this is bound to be her target but how many of the 7 horses listed above her i the market will turn up?

My guess is that Honeysuckle, PTKO and Benie will go elsewhere so that leaves Salsaretta, Elfile, Elimay and Dame De Compagnie as her main rivals - if they all target this race and get there in one piece.

Maybe she "should" be a 20-1 shot but there's no way she will start at half those odds. Her terrific Cheltenham form will ensure she goes off at maybe 8-1 or 9-1 at best - and that's assuming the above mentioned 4 likely rivals turn up.

Reckon the 20-1 could be around till after Christmas but once it becomes obvious Honeysuckle, Benie and/or PTKO are being aimed at other targets that price will surely vanish.

Christmas is 1/4 of the year away though.


I'll take my chances.


I don't see how 16/1 wouldn't be available then? What will Happy Diva do between now and then to look like she is ready to become a Grade 2 winner?


I like her, honestly I really, really do.... I've backed her loads of times..... but she's not a potential shortener....


It isn't like oddschecker is anywhere near 100% now, the horses you mention could drop away and her price wouldn't change without a run.




I'll be surprised if she's a better bet on 30th Sept at 20/1 than whatever she is on Christmas Day for example....

[Lobos]

I don't think it's particularly clever to put up Happy Diva - but it is very practical.

Provided she's fit I'd say this is bound to be her target but how many of the 7 horses listed above her i the market will turn up?

My guess is that Honeysuckle, PTKO and Benie will go elsewhere so that leaves Salsaretta, Elfile, Elimay and Dame De Compagnie as her main rivals - if they all target this race and get there in one piece.

Maybe she "should" be a 20-1 shot but there's no way she will start at half those odds. Her terrific Cheltenham form will ensure she goes off at maybe 8-1 or 9-1 at best - and that's assuming the above mentioned 4 likely rivals turn up.

Reckon the 20-1 could be around till after Christmas but once it becomes obvious Honeysuckle, Benie and/or PTKO are being aimed at other targets that price will surely vanish.

I'd definitely add Shattered Love onto that list Norton's. Most experienced horse in the field. Already a festival winner in the JLT and ran in a Gold Cup and a Ryanair. Never been beaten in 4 Mares chases, 6/19 in all chases and trained by Gord. 25/1 stands out for me.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Shattered Love is a great shout; if she has a good season and goes this route she’d be second favourite at worst on the day imho

[Lobos]

Shattered Love is a great shout; if she has a good season and goes this route she’d be second favourite at worst on the day imho

Entered up against PTKO this weekend. Started off in the same race last season when a beaten fav .

[nortonscoin200]

Entered up against PTKO this weekend. Started off in the same race last season when a beaten fav .

Lobos, I'm with you on Shattered Love - she's value and has to be on the shortlist.

The Mares Chase does seem to have a bit of juice left in the market.

Whoever wins is gonna have to perform to a rating in the mid 150s I would imagine.

But market leaders Elfile and Dam De Compagnie have yet to jump a fence. Will they be as good over fences? Maybe they'll improve but backers will be replying on hope rather than solid form.

Achieving a mark in the mid 150s is going to be a tall order for both of them on what will probably be their third or fourth start over fences.

Favourite Salsaretta is 4 from 4 over fences and achieved a mark of 150 on her first 2 starts but hasn't matched that since. She was 18 lengths behind Laurina when she fell at the last in the mares novice hurdle over the same trip 2 years ago. I wouldn't take 7-1 and no way is she a world beater.

Elimay is 2 from 2 over fences but she's only achieved ratings of 145 and 148 so far. As a second season chaser it's fair to assume there will be improvement to come. But on her only run at Cheltenham she was a well-beaten 6th in the mares novice hurdle. So 12-1 is probably about right.

I still believe Honeysuckle, Benie and PTKO won't turn up.

So the juice in the market has to be with Happy Diva, Shattered Love, Laurina and maybe others further down the list.

The Diva has posted ratings of 154,152 and 152 in 3 of her last 4 starts and has never been worse than second in 5 completed starts over fences at Cheltenham. She was brought down 4 out in the other when travelling well.

Shattered Love is a bit in and out and is probably not the force that won the JLT so impressively but with the assistance of Gordon and Davy she is surely in with a shout. 25-1 is decent.

Realistically, Laurina is a bit of a wing and a prayer job. If she can reproduce the form of her chasing debut win over Minella Indo last season (rating 150) and get anywhere close to the form she has shown over hurdles at the Festival in the Champion Hurdle and Mares Novice hurdle then she would have a favourite's chance.

But the IFs are pretty big which is why she's 33-1.

As kev said, others further down the list will probably come out of the pack - I'd be interested in Concertista at 33-1 if she gets a chase entry.

Meantime, I think it makes sense to have Happy Diva, Shattered Love and Laurina onside at a working man's price when the top of the market looks fairly weak.

[Lobos]

Gone in on Laurina 1pt @ 33/1 for this in hope that Nicholls can do his magic. Big player if he can !

[Quevega]

Just a reminder that this race is a G2, G1 horses will not target this race....

Depends on the penalties they have to carry.

[Lobos]

Depends on the penalties they have to carry.

Think Ista means as they are Grade 1 horses they'll not even be entertaining this race. Re Shattered Love, she has taken on the very best of the boys all her life but is definitely now in the decline. Makes sense to run in Grade 2 against her own sex where she is unbeaten in 4 chases and has 9 wins from 12 Mares races overall.

[Quevega]

Think Ista means as they are Grade 1 horses they'll not even be entertaining this race. Re Shattered Love, she has taken on the very best of the boys all her life but is definitely now in the decline. Makes sense to run in Grade 2 against her own sex where she is unbeaten in 4 chases and has 9 wins from 12 Mares races overall.

I know what he means.
BTW - she (PTKO) is entered in a grade 2 on Saturday against the boys. - negating her allowance so we'll see how she fares.

With regards shattered love, I'd be very surprised that there isn't a younger improving type good enough to beat her.
But a grade 2 against her own sex is about her level.

Running against the boys should not be a disadvantage if good enough (the boys could be shitty boys), and she's had an allowance (when in play),
and a mare on the decline is a dangerous thing.