FatJockey thinks..

[Middle_Of_March]

I’ll update this thread when I ask the question again at Christmas and in February and see which horses popularity has increased and deceased. Remember this is purely for who we think will win rather than value etc.

August - http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...t-8th-edition)

AUGUST EDITION
Arkle Votes
Shiskin - 27
Captain Guiness - 3
Elixir Dainay - 3
Felix Desjy - 1
Darver Star - 1

Percentages:
Shiskin - 77%
Captain Guinness - 8.5%
Elixir Dainay - 8.5%
Felix Desjy - 3%
Darver Star - 3%

Marsh Votes
Envoi Allen - 31
The Big Getaway - 2
Darver Star - 1
Elixir Dainay - 1

Percentages:
Envoi Allen - 88%
The Big Getaway - 6%
Darver Star - 3%
Elixir Dainay - 3%

RSA Votes
Monkfish - 13
Fury Road - 7
Latest Exhibition - 5
The Big Getaway - 3
Easywork - 2
If The Cap Fits - 1
The Big Breakaway - 1
Envoi Allen - 1
Dior Kor - 1
Ask For Glory - 1

Percentages:
Monkfish - 37%
Fury Road - 20%
Latest Exhibition - 14%
The Big Getaway - 8%
Easywork - 6%
If The Cap Fits - 3%
The Big Breakaway - 3%
Envoi Allen - 3%
Dior Kor - 3%
Ask For Glory - 3%

Champion Hurdle Votes
Epatante - 17
Abracadabras - 7
Goshen - 7
Saint Roi - 2
Saldier - 2

Percentages:
Epatante - 48%
Abracadabras - 20%
Goshen - 20%
Saint Roi - 6%
Saldier - 6%

Stayers Hurdle Votes
Thyme Hill - 15
Paisley Park - 13
Lisnager Oscar - 3
Benie Des Dieux - 3
Monkfish - 1

Percentages:
Thyme Hill - 43%
Paisley Park - 37%
Lisnager Oscar - 8.5%
Benie Des Dieux - 8.5%
Monkfish - 3%

Champion Chase Votes
Chacun Pour Soi - 18
Put The Kettle On - 8
Fakir Doudaries - 4
Altior - 3
Politologue - 1
Mister Fisher - 1

Percentages:
Chacun Pour Soi - 51%
Put The Kettle On - 23%
Fakir Doudaries - 11%
Altior - 9%
Politologue - 3%
Mister Fisher - 3%

Ryanair Votes
Allaho - 9
Min - 8
Samcro - 5
Defi De Seuil - 3
Melon - 3
Fakir Doudaries - 2
A Plus Tard - 2
Ridersonthestorm - 2
Real Steel - 1

Percentages:
Allaho - 26%
Min - 22%
Samcro - 13%
Defi De Seuil - 9%
Melon - 9%
Fakir Doudaries - 6%
A Plus Tard - 6%
Ridersonthestorm - 6%
Real Steel - 3%

Gold Cup Votes
Al Boum Photo - 12
Champ - 6
Topofthegame - 5
Minella Indo - 5
Santini - 3
Lostintranslation - 2
Delta Work - 1
Melon - 1

Percentages:
Al Boum Photo - 34%
Champ - 17%
Topofthegame - 14%
Minella Indo - 14%
Santini - 9%
Lostintranslation - 6%
Delta Work - 3%
Melon - 3%

[Middle_Of_March]

FatJockey most popular horses (and current best price available) - August:
Marsh - Envoi Allen (7/2) - 88%
Arkle - Shiskin (4/1) - 77%
Champion Chase - Chacun Pour Soi (5/1) - 51%
Champion Hurdle - Epatante (4/1) - 48%
Stayers Hurdle - Thyme Hill (16/1) - 43%
RSA - Monkfish (10/1) - 37%
Gold Cup - Al Boum Photo (6/1) - 34%
Ryanair - Allaho (12/1) - 26%

The 8-fold is 7,160,399/1 best price on Skybet if anyone is wondering.

[The King Pimm]

Top effort MoM. It will interesting to how those percentages changes throughout the season. Last season it was horses like Klassical Dream, Defi Du Sol, Laurina, Reserve Tank, TotG, Delta Works, Altior among other heading those markets and come March it was a different story.

[Geordieboy83]

Great effort MoM. Will be interesting going forward as season continues.

[Hardy Eustace]

Very nice. Thanks MoM!

[Kevloaf]

Good idea.



My best guess would have been that the highest percentage for every race will be the ante post fav at that point each time... which does make sense. However already the Ryanair and Stayers don't fit that trend.

[Middle_Of_March]

Good idea.



My best guess would have been that the highest percentage for every race will be the ante post fav at that point each time... which does make sense. However already the Ryanair and Stayers don't fit that trend.

For me, Thyme Hill having 43% of us thinking he will win at this stage is very interesting considering he’s 16/1.

Let’s see what changes there are by Christmas and then the Dublin Festival.

[Istabraq]

For me, Thyme Hill having 43% of us thinking he will win at this stage is very interesting considering he’s 16/1.

Let’s see what changes there are by Christmas and then the Dublin Festival.

Always a danger people misinterpret the question MoM and confuse the most likely winners with bets placed.

Having backed both Paisley Park and Thyme Hill for the Stayers I obviously think they both can win but if PP comes back and proves his wellbeing I think he will be the most obvious winner by the majority....

[Lobos]

For me, Thyme Hill having 43% of us thinking he will win at this stage is very interesting considering he’s 16/1.

Let’s see what changes there are by Christmas and then the Dublin Festival.

16/1 is tremendous value when you think that out of the 5 in front of him in the betting only PP is likely to run in it. Very similar to Captain Guiness in the Arkle available at 20/1. In my book, both those are second favs. Great each way double for those inclined to bet that way. Win double is 315/1 with B365, Ew is 19/1 by my reckoning. Spectre might be interested......

[Spectre]

I think I’ve already got them hooked up Lobos. But thanks for pointing it out. It’s my kind of bet.