Who do you think will win (August 8th edition)

[Kautostar]

Wow good work, altho an unusual thing to be doing at 4am! Surprised there wasn't a single vote for sire de berlais in the stayers. Also dont really understand the love-in for allaho on this forum, ive not seen anything to suggest he's up to winning a ryanair

I agree, looks like we are on our own on this one. As I’ve said many times I think allaho is trip less, doesn’t quite see out the full 3miles and not quick enough for 2m4f.

[ComplyOrDie]

I agree, looks like we are on our own on this one. As I’ve said many times I think allaho is trip less, doesn’t quite see out the full 3miles and not quick enough for 2m4f.

Based on what? His 1st & 2nd over two tries around that trip?

His 2nd was to Easy Game, on his seasonal debut, Easy Game had a pipe opener over hurdles so likely stripped fitter, Easy Game then put it up to Faugheen at the DRF, who subsequently ran a cracker at the Cheltenham Festival in the Marsh, not far off Samcro/Melon.

[ComplyOrDie]

Well, the reason I like champ is the finishing kick up the hill and he looks an ideal type for a goldcup. Allaho has dotted up at 2-5 and been beaten by easygame in his other chase at 2 and a half miles. Like you say tho, IF min is on the decline (and I would want to see racecourse evidence of that rather than just say hes 10 so he must be passed it) then it could end up being a relatively weak race. Personally I'm hoping lostintranslation drops back in trip

Easy Game had a pipe opener prior to beating Allaho, whose run was his seasonal debut. Easy Game was no mug though, making Faugheen work every yard at the DRF, and then Faugheen going well and very close in the Marsh behind Samcro/Melon, so it's not as if the form is to be crabbed.

[Kautostar]

Easy game was then sent to the rsa, if they thought he would be quick enough for the marsh he would surely have run there instead. Show me one piece of form where allaho shows a turn of foot? He’s just a relentless galloper that doesn’t quite see out 3miles well enough to win at the top table and doesn’t show a turn of foot that would be needed over shorter in a top class field. Massive hype horse, he’s a lay for me

[archie]

Allaho's joint best RPR was in the RSA and I don't think that you can be 100% sure that he was outstayed rather than being (just) beaten by 2 horses who were better on the day. He beat Battleoverdoyen by 22l because he's a better horse than that one rather than being a more dour stayer. At only 6, he was giving away a good deal of maturity to the first two and there is every chance that, with another summer's grass in him, the staying power may be enhanced.

As we've said before, there are a limited number of races in Ireland before Christmas that put you on the road to either the Ryanair or the Gold Cup so, unless the stable tour is informative, it's unlikely that we'll get a proper steer on his Festival target until Leopardstown.

[Kautostar]

Easy Game had a pipe opener prior to beating Allaho, whose run was his seasonal debut. Easy Game was no mug though, making Faugheen work every yard at the DRF, and then Faugheen going well and very close in the Marsh behind Samcro/Melon, so it's not as if the form is to be crabbed.

On a form line through faugheen/easy game then if taken literally allaho would have finished around 4th in the marsh chase. Samcro and melon 12/1 and 20/1 for the Ryanair while allaho is also 12/1 top price for a race he’s far from certain to run in. Screams bad value to me, he should be in the 20-25/1 range.

This needs moving to the Ryanair chat apologies

[ComplyOrDie]

Easy game was then sent to the rsa, if they thought he would be quick enough for the marsh he would surely have run there instead. Show me one piece of form where allaho shows a turn of foot? He’s just a relentless galloper that doesn’t quite see out 3miles well enough to win at the top table and doesn’t show a turn of foot that would be needed over shorter in a top class field. Massive hype horse, he’s a lay for me

Yeah, the wrong race for Easy Game, clearly.

I see what you have tried to do there by asking me that, twist it round so that I have to defend him, but ultimately you said he wasn't quick enough for 2m 4f yet his record is a 1st and a 2nd over around that trip, which I duly noted.

[Craigy14]

Allaho's joint best RPR was in the RSA and I don't think that you can be 100% sure that he was outstayed rather than being (just) beaten by 2 horses who were better on the day. He beat Battleoverdoyen by 22l because he's a better horse than that one rather than being a more dour stayer. At only 6, he was giving away a good deal of maturity to the first two and there is every chance that, with another summer's grass in him, the staying power may be enhanced.

As we've said before, there are a limited number of races in Ireland before Christmas that put you on the road to either the Ryanair or the Gold Cup so, unless the stable tour is informative, it's unlikely that we'll get a proper steer on his Festival target until Leopardstown.

Completely agree Archie about him being young and also he hasn’t had loads of runs either, only 8 lifetime runs.

Could be any amount of improvement imo for him. Whether that’s over the gold cup trip or Ryanair I think he’ll be a player.

[Kevloaf]

based on this thread not being ‘who do you think represents best value’ but actually ‘who do you think will genuinely win the race?’.......I’d suggest Mr KevLoaf that you get a shiny pound coin on your Arkle/RSA double sharpish Sir. If you’re happy those 2 selections are most likely to trump all others in their races, it would be worth a cool £1,393 on a just one shiny little gold coin. So please, back your judgment. No good just typing it out on here without having a little bet on that one.

Have you put a shiny little £1 on the double?

Originally Posted by Kevloaf
Arkle - Elixir D'ainay
Marsh - Envoi Allen
RSA - If The Cap Fits
Champion Hurdle - Abacadabras
Stayers - Paisley Park
QMCC - Chacun Pour Soi
Ryanair - Allaho
Gold Cup - Al Boum Photo




I have to give the premise, I find these predictions absolutely pointless. What "the majority" think, and "ignoring value" in particular is the utterly useless. No offense intended to MoM, it's still a great idea for a thread on the forum, just not something I personally will give any thought to whatsoever as the results aren't going to help me in any way.


So, that said, Elixir D'ainay I picked as I think he'll be the Mullins #1 in the race. There wasn't a whole load of additional thought that went in to it. The fact is that going Novice Chasing is a leveller and Shishkin isn't as far clear of his peers as a novice hurdler as others... I am not against him in any way, shape or form really... I just picked the Mullins horse.



If The Cap Fits, is the highest rated horse going novice chasing, and I have no hesitation (in August, in a hypothetical situation) putting him up as the 'most likely' winner of the race.





I won't be on the specific double....as next time we'll have actual form to have looked at so I imagine both my selections may well be different, but don't let me put you off

[Kevloaf]

....and might as well comment on Allaho....

Whilst aalowe9 may not have seen

"anything to suggest he's up to winning a ryanair"

, he's been to Cheltenham twice, and placed twice, at the Festival. So it's hardly a ridiculous statement or thought process people are going down?

Min had only placed at best? Cue Card won the bumper but then could only place in a Supreme then an Arkle before eventually getting a win? Horses like Frodon and Balko Des Flos are also Ryanair winners and their only 'good' at best, so I don't understand why somebody wouldn't be able to understand WHY people like Allaho. He's "good" and he's got a great festival record so far.

To summerise, the festival record combined with a positive 2m5f front running display for a horse that'll be 7 next festival, is a combination I would want onside. I don't think he saw out 3 miles well enough to suggest 3m2f next year is what he wants... so I think he'll end up here ... and that's why he's my most likely winner of the race.


If I was picking again now though, I'd have Defi Du Seuil as my Ryanair selection....

[SharpHat]

....and might as well comment on Allaho....

Whilst aalowe9 may not have seen , he's been to Cheltenham twice, and placed twice, at the Festival. So it's hardly a ridiculous statement or thought process people are going down?

Min had only placed at best? Cue Card won the bumper but then could only place in a Supreme then an Arkle before eventually getting a win? Horses like Frodon and Balko Des Flos are also Ryanair winners and their only 'good' at best, so I don't understand why somebody wouldn't be able to understand WHY people like Allaho. He's "good" and he's got a great festival record so far.

To summerise, the festival record combined with a positive 2m5f front running display for a horse that'll be 7 next festival, is a combination I would want onside. I don't think he saw out 3 miles well enough to suggest 3m2f next year is what he wants... so I think he'll end up here ... and that's why he's my most likely winner of the race.


If I was picking again now though, I'd have Defi Du Seuil as my Ryanair selection....

Thats all fine, doesnt change the fact allaho won't win anything next year

[Kevloaf]

Thats all fine, doesnt change the fact allaho won't win anything next year

The fact?

[Kautostar]

And doesn’t make him value at 12/1 either. Not certain to run here, not certain to improve for a drop in trip if that even happens and relying on the race cutting up and being a poor renewal isn’t an appealing ante post proposition at this stage. For a horse that has just good if unspectacular form and a lot of hype I’d want a lot bigger than 12/1

[Kevloaf]

And doesn’t make him value at 12/1 either. Not certain to run here, not certain to improve for a drop in trip if that even happens and relying on the race cutting up and being a poor renewal isn’t an appealing ante post proposition at this stage. For a horse that has just good if unspectacular form and a lot of hype I’d want a lot bigger than 12/1

Fair enough points...this thread wasn't asking about best value though or I wouldn't have picked him.

I haven't backed Allaho for the Ryanair in any singles, so I am not disagreeing with your points.

I of course would also want a lot bigger than 12/1, however I do like him more than you, clearly

[Kautostar]

Maybe he’ll win me over during the season but at this stage he’s not for me. I think he’s more grade 2 than grade 1 but he could prove me wrong.