Making a 'book'

[Kevloaf]

Just chatting to jono about this but thought it may make an interesting topic of conversation potentially.

I appreciate for some, the idea of making a book for a race isn't fun, feasible, worthwhile, skillful etc, however I know a few people do and it's those people this post is for



This year, I anticipate I'll make a 100% book (cover all runners) in the Arkle and Marsh Novice Chases.

I think the latter is likely to end up with less than 8 runners this year based on my anticipation that Envoi Allen 'scares off' a few. The Arkle historically is a suitable fit too, as horses start at 2 miles and go up in trip as they get beaten. Given the nature of it being racing, means the majority of horses get beaten leaving only a finite number of feasible Arkle contenders by Feb/March.

Of course these two races are linked and it may mean one race doesn't look easier than the other and so on, and to be honest you'd hope most connections run their horses in the correct race anyway...but still, given the number of novice chasers, and likely shapes to the market, we could definitely see odds on favourites in both races.


Firstly, are there any other races people think will be ideal for making a book this year?

I usually find the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup can be done although the Gold Cup this year looks too deep and too condenced at the top of the market to do without 'roll ups'. The CH I've managed to get a great start on, but only because of roll ups and it'd be very hard at current market values to get this done.



There are loads of points we can discuss, so ask away or chip in as you see fit, whoever you are.

[Lobos]

Through TWAR and backing a few others long range specifically for the RSA I somehow ended up having 7 of the 10 runners. On the day I backed the other 3 just to have a full book. Made a profit but was more excited about having every runner. I've never done it before and doubt I'll ever do it again.

[Spectre]

The Arkle and The Champion Chase are the two for now. Possibly the Ryanair as that often cuts up too. I suspect it's going to end a much deeper race than usual though so maybe not. Certainly for now, if I were going for a full book they'd be the two I'd focus on.

My own approach is slightly different in that I only really want to end up with two, three or four horses in any of the non-handicaps by raceday. I offload most of my other bets to lock in a profit on the race, with the overall intention of locking in a profit for the entire Festival.

My approach will vary by race, so for example I'll only have a couple of horses in the Queen Mum, Arkle, and Ryanair if there's less than 8 runners, whereas I will probably have three in the Gold Cup, NH Chase and Triumph, and perhaps four in the novice hurdles. It all depends on the makeup of each race and how many places are up for grabs.

It's a bit of a process for me. so for example in a 16 runner Albert Bartlett I will probably end up having two or three running each way, and maybe one or two where I've laid the win part of the bet and only have them running for the place. I may have had as many as 7 or 8 in my book at any point, but I'll have laid back 3 or 4 of those to lock in a profit, and maybe lay part stakes on others if necessary. I may also top up points on one or two overnight, or on the day based on my final read of the race.

[Lobos]

Looking at what I've already done for this year, I may well end up having the lot in the RSA again. Fury Road, Monkfish, The Big Breakaway, The Big Getaway, Envoi Allen, Chantry House, Pileon, Aione, Appreciate It, Elixr Dainay, Galvin......mental !

[The King Pimm]

I ended up having a book/covering the field in the Supreme, Arkle, Churdle (except Epatante!!!), Ballymore, RSA, Champion Chase, Marsh, Ryanair & Gold Cup. It did start by accident occasionally got a bit messy, costly and stressful but in the end I made a profit on each race, not as much as I hoped but a profit. I do plan to do the same this year utilising the TWAR markets and Roll Ups but cutting what I put out and make bigger returns. I’ll hopefully update my diary this week so you can see where I am at but most of the Graded races mentioned above except the Supreme & Ballymore don’t usually attract more than 12 runners so a feasible project. I think once I’ve covered most of the market which should take up until mid Feb I’m going to start hammering the 2-3 real fancies I have in each race so if they lose I’ve not lost money on that race but if they do win I’ll make a significant return to make the venture worthwhile.

[Kevloaf]

The Arkle and The Champion Chase are the two for now. Possibly the Ryanair as that often cuts up too. I suspect it's going to end a much deeper race than usual though so maybe not. Certainly for now, if I were going for a full book they'd be the two I'd focus on.

My own approach is slightly different in that I only really want to end up with two, three or four horses in any of the non-handicaps by raceday. I offload most of my other bets to lock in a profit on the race, with the overall intention of locking in a profit for the entire Festival.

My approach will vary by race, so for example I'll only have a couple of horses in the Queen Mum, Arkle, and Ryanair if there's less than 8 runners, whereas I will probably have three in the Gold Cup, NH Chase and Triumph, and perhaps four in the novice hurdles. It all depends on the makeup of each race and how many places are up for grabs.

It's a bit of a process for me. so for example in a 16 runner Albert Bartlett I will probably end up having two or three running each way, and maybe one or two where I've laid the win part of the bet and only have them running for the place. I may have had as many as 7 or 8 in my book at any point, but I'll have laid back 3 or 4 of those to lock in a profit, and maybe lay part stakes on others if necessary. I may also top up points on one or two overnight, or on the day based on my final read of the race.

Has their never been a time whereby you've got a race so well and truely by the short and curlies that you do let it run?

You weren't about (and I need no excuse to bring up) the Arkle where I had Saint Calvados at 100/1, Footpad at 25/1 and 16/1, Petit Mouchoir at 20/1, Brain Power at 20/1 and backed the rag on the day at 100/1 ....

I fancied Footpad and Saint Calvados but had absolutely no hesitation in keeping the others? Would you have only had 2 in that race having 'cashed in/locked in' the profit?

In hindsight I could have laid SC for a decent amount as he went off well backed 2nd fav, but I don't regret not doingt that.

[Nortons who]

My overall approach for all of the races (apart from the Handicaps) is to seed each race up front with a couple of well fancied selections, a couple of medium priced ones and a few outsiders which I consider could improve sufficiently to become key contenders.

Depending on how my selections perform throughout the season, I will then take a view as to whether to cherry pick other selections to supplement per race, leave the race as is, or potentially hedge all other runners in that race to lock in a profit. Re the last option, I ended up having a full book in 2020 on the RSA, Marsh, Ryanair and Gold Cup. This inevitably eroded my potential profit margin from these races but overall I was glad to bank 4 more winners.

Another factor for me has been TWAR, which I have utilised extensively to take away the headache and risk of opting for the wrong race this far out. I appreciate others skillfully use cash out to manage this risk but I prefer to keep it more simple.

One consequence of TWAR is that it has tended to skew some races for me (particularly the Novice Hurdles), with multiple TWAR selections ending up in the same race and especially if they are the main protagonists.*

Since I'm also a fan of knock on win* doubles in consecutive races and from one day to the next, I often end up with a single and double riding on one or more selections. In these instances I will usually hedge a bit more, particularly if the double header is riding on one of the favourites.

Finally, my entire philosophy towards backing multiple sections per race at Cheltenham is as a consequence of my first few years where I only backed one or two per race on the day and quite often it seemed that they would fall or lag behind early on and I never got involved with the business end of the races.

I have definitely gone too far the other way now but it's very unusual that my selections are not involved in the finish. As many have said on here already this year, for example it was gratifying* to have the first 4 in running over the last in the Albert Bartlett. Also I find they I actually enjoy the Gold Cup far more as a spectacle if I don't mind too much who wins from a betting perspective. That being said, I always have a few extra £ on the rank outsiders, in the faint hope that we shall see another Nortons Coin go in.

[Kevloaf]

Thanks NW, interesting points

In particular, I find that balance between enjoying a race regardless or the result and satisfaction/disappointment of pinning colours to the mast difficult to weigh up.

My own take on that, at the moment, is that in handicaps, it is hugely satisfying to get it right and you literally can't cover the field and make a profit...

In graded races, you can still get paid out when you're wrong, but weight the results to reflect your opinion.

At the moment, that albeit loose mindset, keeps me pretty satisfied.

[Spectre]

Has their never been a time whereby you've got a race so well and truely by the short and curlies that you do let it run?

You weren't about (and I need no excuse to bring up) the Arkle where I had Saint Calvados at 100/1, Footpad at 25/1 and 16/1, Petit Mouchoir at 20/1, Brain Power at 20/1 and backed the rag on the day at 100/1 ....

I fancied Footpad and Saint Calvados but had absolutely no hesitation in keeping the others? Would you have only had 2 in that race having 'cashed in/locked in' the profit?

In hindsight I could have laid SC for a decent amount as he went off well backed 2nd fav, but I don't regret not doingt that.

Wow. That is some book. I don't think I've ever had anywhere near as good. I think I'd be looking for any excuse to bring it up too Kev.

For what it's worth if I had those five backed each way the night before I'd have place laid Brain Power, and laid the win part of Saint Calvados (which I actually did), and wouldn't have backed the rag. Which I guess answers your question in a round about way?

My actual bets that ran on the day were all antepost 3 places:

Footpad 8/1 ew
Petit Mouchoir 20/1 ew
Saint Calvados 40/1 place only
Saint Calvados Win lay

[Kautostar]

Not backing the rag in this situation is insane! If you can lock in a profit you do so, it’s all about making money at the end of the day

[Kevloaf]

Wow. That is some book. I don't think I've ever had anywhere near as good. I think I'd be looking for any excuse to bring it up too Kev.

For what it's worth if I had those five backed each way the night before I'd have place laid Brain Power, and laid the win part of Saint Calvados (which I actually did), and wouldn't have backed the rag. Which I guess answers your question in a round about way?

My actual bets that ran on the day were all antepost 3 places:

Footpad 8/1 ew
Petit Mouchoir 20/1 ew
Saint Calvados 40/1 place only
Saint Calvados Win lay

I've just fact checked it, this was it 15 points spread over:

Footpad	15.5/1 (win)
Footpad	25/1 (win)
Footpad - Any Race	16/1 (e/w)
Petit Mouchoir	16/1 (e/w)
Petit Mouchoir - Any Race	10/1 (win)
Saint Calvados	100/1 (e/w)
Brain Power	20/1 (e/w)
Robinshill	100/1(freebie)

Ante post, I had 10 points on Finain's Oscar that year

....and had Neon Wolf been around longer I'd have had much more than the 1 point I had on him.

In total, 21.6 pts of non runners to get to the above.



I had forgotten it was just a free bet on the rag, but if I hadn't have had the free bet I'd have had a small e/w bet on I reckon.



This was 2018, and was the year before 365 introduced their 'cash out' facility.... that would have aided the NR's I had which were quite significant (although that's because I got very ballsy on Finian's Oscar!)

[Spectre]

That's still a wonderful position to be in even with the lost points. I had Finians as well but without looking I can't remember what I had on. Not much though otherwise he'd stick out in my mind.

I had Neon Wolf in the JLT and not the Arkle. I can't remember why though. I'm guessing there was something in the ether about intended targets. I might be wrong but I think I had something else as well, but I cant remember what. I'm pretty sure it was another one of Willie's but I can't for the life of me think which one. It either didn't go to the Festival or I was the victim of Mullins bingo.

[Spectre]

Thanks NW, interesting points

In particular, I find that balance between enjoying a race regardless or the result and satisfaction/disappointment of pinning colours to the mast difficult to weigh up.

I think I've probably said it before somewhere, but my answer to that is to start all over again at the final decs. I do a complete new form study that takes away any bias there may be from my bets. I then lay what I don't want, keep what I do want, and back anything new that I haven't got.

My own take on that, at the moment, is that in handicaps, it is hugely satisfying to get it right and you literally can't cover the field and make a profit...

I usually back the number of horses to the number of places available. Often you can get 6 places, and if so I'll back a maximum of 6 horses. Some I may lay the win part back and just keep the place part of the bet. I won't back any more than that as I want every horse as a possible return. I always like to think I've got a good chance of finding the winner and some places with that strategy. It's paid to follow it so I must be doing something right. My selections will be a combination of three primary factors:

1. Stats/Trends for horses not with the big three trainers
2. Willie, Gordon, and Nicky horses.
3. Unexposed/well handicapped plot horses

I also try to have a good balance across the UK and Irish horses. You can't cram them all in, but with often 5 or 6 horses running for you, most of the bases can be covered.

[Kevloaf]

That's still a wonderful position to be in even with the lost points. I had Finians as well but without looking I can't remember what I had on. Not much though otherwise he'd stick out in my mind.

I had Neon Wolf in the JLT and not the Arkle. I can't remember why though. I'm guessing there was something in the ether about intended targets. I might be wrong but I think I had something else as well, but I cant remember what. I'm pretty sure it was another one of Willie's but I can't for the life of me think which one. It either didn't go to the Festival or I was the victim of Mullins bingo.

Cilaos Emery, Saturnas, Invitation Only, Chacun Pour Soi, Bamako Morievere, Rathvinden?
They're my best guesses looking at my book haha.

Neon Wolf could well have been a JLT horse as well yeah (along with Willoughby Court, Death Duty)

Enjoyed that year very much, was more excited going in to 2018 that I have been for plenty of years. Neon Wolf and Finian's Oscar I thought would end up both top, top class. We'll never know

[jono]

As Kev mentioned i've been looking into this going into the new season.
I tend to bet 2-4 horses per race on average. And quite often the lower end of that. So it's a completely different way for me to go about a race.

Overall i'm more than happy with my approach to the festival and my returns overall I have no issue with. However looking through the past 3 festivals (I started betting antepost on the festival in 2015 but didn't keep much of a record of individual bets until 2018) has highlighted some races where am I am at a loss in this time period. It of course doesn't actually have any effect on the outcome of the 2021 or future festivals but has given me some food for thought. With some races more of a surprise than others.

The 11 races I am at a negative ROI on are: (note these are singles only)

Arkle -100%
Mares Hurdle -36%
Coral Cup -39%
Cross Country -100%
Boodles -100%
Bumper -100%
Kim Muir -29%
Triumph Hurdle -100%
County Hurdle -100%
Grand Annual -100%
Martin Pipe -8%

I knew I had a bad record in the Arkle over the last 3 seasons, but not quite that bad.
Non runners have actually hit me harder than anything here. Cilaos Emery, Le Richebourg, Finians Oscar meant it was hard to really recover from the race, where I often left it alone and moved on instead of trying to salvage anything. I actually thought I had a cracking hand last season in notably Notebook and then Cashback and Brewin'upastorm but that went down the pan too.

So the Arkle, given my absolutely dire return in the last 3 seasons, the fact it's usually a small field and it has a short priced favourite in Shishkin mean i'm going to be taking the 'book' approach this season.

The rest of the races don't actually strike me as opportunities here? The handicaps (Coral, Boodles, County, Grand Annual), like mentioned will never be applicable for this. I am actually surprised the Kim Muir and Martin Pipe are down. But not significantly.

The Mares Hurdle, although at a loss is not one where i'm too worried about. I've been heavily weighted towards a horse (Apple's Jade / Benie des Dieux) and have just come out the wrong side of those. It's for now still a race where there's a huge gap between the top couple of Mares and the rest of the division. This season i'm sided towards the Honeysuckle camp and have backed accordingly at 7/2.
Let's see how that pans out there...

The same could be said of the Cross Country, with one or two clearly ahead of the rest of the pack but unfortunately short prices from the offset. Easyslands continues that into the new season. But isn't much of a price this far out.

And the Bumper, i have zero excitement about. I'll happily chance a reputation or a bit of a hype with cashout pre debut but other than that, no interest. 5 single bets in 3 seasons shows how far down the pecking order that race is for me.

So the other question is what races look ideal to trial this going into the new season.
It does look like it may come down too:

Arkle
Champion Chase
Marsh

No doubt Envoi Allen will scare a few away in the Marsh resulting in a small sized field. It of course has the same outlook as the Arkle in many ways. But my only issue here is that I really do struggle to see any horse beating him, all being well. Shishkin could be that god as well of course. But I think we are dealing with a horse at another level from almost any other in Envoi Allen. So do I want to eat into the potential profit by covering other horses in the race?